Election 2024: Trump Leads Harris in Wisconsin, Tied in Michigan

Former President Donald Trump has gained a two-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the battleground state of Wisconsin, while the two candidates are still tied in Michigan.

A new telephone and online survey by Rasmussen Reports and American Thinker finds that, if the election were held today, 49% of Likely Wisconsin voters would vote for Trump, while 47% would vote for Harris. In September, Trump and Harris were tied in Wisconsin at 49% each. In Michigan, Trump and Harris remain tied at 48% each, a finding unchanged from the September survey. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

In addition to being key battlegrounds in the presidential race, both Wisconsin and Michigan have contests that may affect which party controls the U.S. Senate. In Wisconsin, incumbent Democrat Sen. Tammy Baldwin now has a one-point lead, with 46% to Republican challenger Eric Hovde’s 45%. In Michigan, Democrat Elissa Slotkin and Republican Mike Rogers are now tied, at 44% each, in the contest to fill the seat of retiring Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow.

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The survey of 1,004 Wisconsin Likely Voters and 1,058 Michigan Likely Voters was conducted on October 9-14, 2024, by Rasmussen Reports and American Thinker. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Thirty-two percent (32%) of Michigan voters and 29% of Wisconsin voters say the economy is the most important issue in this year’s election. Voters in Wisconsin (22%) are more likely than Michigan voters (17%) to say border security is the top issue. In both states, 14% of voters name abortion as the most important issue.

However, “the most compelling point,” American Thinker managing editor Andrea Widburg said of the survey results, “is that voters are deeply unhappy with the status quo under the current administration. In both Wisconsin and Michigan, respondents said that when they think about how Washington D.C. works, 71% want a major change to the current system.”

Among other findings of the Rasmussen Reports/American Thinker survey of Michigan and Wisconsin voters:

– When asked which issue the next president should address first, 29% of voters in Wisconsin and (28%) in Michigan put illegal immigration in the top spot (29%). Thirty percent (30%) in Michigan and 26% in Wisconsin said the first issue to be addressed is rising prices. Twenty-three percent (23%) in Wisconsin and 21% in Michigan say “protecting our democracy” is the first issue, while 20% in Michigan and 19% place abortion rights first.

– The “gender gap” is a significant factor in the presidential race in both states. In Wisconsin, men favor Trump by a 15-point margin – 55% to Harris’s 40% – while women voters favor Harris by 12-point margin, 54% to Trump’s 42%. The margin among women voters in Michigan is the same as in Wisconsin, where men favor Trump by a 14-point margin.

– In Michigan, 53% of whites, 17% of black voters and 43% of other minorities would vote for Trump, while 43% of whites, 80% of black voters and 52% of other minorities would vote for Harris. In Wisconsin, 50% of whites, 32% of black voters and 51% of other minorities would vote for Trump, while 46% of whites, 50% of black voters and 47% of other minorities would vote for Harris.

– Sixty-four percent (64%) of voters in Michigan and 65% in Wisconsin are concerned that the outcome of the presidential election could be affected by cheating.

– Fifty-seven percent (57%) of voters in Michigan and 55% in Wisconsin say they are not better off than they were four years ago.

– Only 18% of voters in Wisconsin and 23% in Michigan believe today’s children will be better off than their parents.

A majority of U.S. voters say they won’t wait until Election Day to vote, and one-in-five plan to vote before this week is over.

Trump has widened his lead over Harris in the battleground state of North Carolina. 

Additional information from the Wisconsin survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

Additional information from the Michigan survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

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