Election 2024: Trump +3 in N.C, Harris +3 in Virginia, Tied in Michigan

Less than six weeks before Election Day, Former President Donald Trump has a narrow lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in North Carolina, while the two are tied in Michigan, and Harris leads in Virginia.

A new telephone and online survey by Rasmussen Reports and American Thinker finds that, if the election were held today, 49% of Likely North Carolina voters would vote for Trump, while 46% would vote for Harris. In Michigan, Trump and Harris are tied, with each getting 48% of Likely Voters in the state. In Virginia, Harris gets 49% to Trump’s 46% among Likely Voters. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The economy is the top issue in all three states, with 42% of likely voters in North Carolina, 35% in Michigan and 32% in Virginia naming it as most important. In North Carolina, border security (17%) is the second most important issue, followed by abortion (12%). In Michigan, border security and abortion are tied as the second-most important issue, each with 15%. In Virginia, border security (17%) is the second-most important issue, followed by abortion (13%).

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The survey of 1,078 North Carolina Likely Voters, 1,086 Michigan Likely Voters, and 1,144 Virginia Likely Voters was conducted on September 19-22, 2024, by Rasmussen Reports and American Thinker. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Trump and Harris are tied in Michigan despite voters there giving Harris higher favorability ratings – she is viewed favorably by 51% compared to 47% for Trump. 

“What seems to drive the tie is the four issues that concern Michigan voters: the economy, immigration, energy policy, and abortion,” said American Thinker managing editor Andrea Widburg. “On the first three, a majority of voters believe that Trump is the stronger candidate. … Regarding the economy, poll respondents say they are not better off now than they were four years ago (53% to 36%), and they do not believe their children will be better off (50% to 23%). When they think back to Biden’s economic policies, 43% of those polled say the policies leave them less likely to vote for Harris. That is reflected in the fact that 49% of those polled believe Trump is the candidate who can be trusted to improve the economy versus 46% thinking the same for Harris.”

Among other findings of the Rasmussen Reports/American Thinker survey of North Carolina, Michigan and Virginia voters:

– In the Michigan Senate race to fill the seat vacated by the retirement of Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow, Democrat Elissa Slotkin has a four-point lead, 47% to 43%, over Republican Mike Rogers.

– In Virginia, incumbent Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine has a 12-point lead, 51% to 39%, over Republican challenger Hung Cao.

– In the battle to control the U.S. House of Representatives, Democrats have a one-point lead on the so-called “generic ballot” question in Michigan and a two-point lead in Virginia, while Republicans have a five-point lead, 50% to 45%, in North Carolina.

– In North Carolina, 59% of whites, 22% of black voters, and 47% of other minorities would vote for Trump. Thirty-eight percent (38%) of whites, 77% of black voters and 42% of other minorities would vote for Harris.

– In Michigan, 45% of whites, 74% of black voters, and 47% of other minorities would vote for Harris. Fifty-two percent (52%) of whites, 19% of black voters and 45% of other minorities would vote for Trump.

– In Virginia, 43% of whites, 77% of black voters, and 46% of other minorities would vote for Harris. Fifty-three percent (53%) of whites, 15% of black voters and 50% of other minorities would vote for Trump.

Trump has a narrow lead over Harris in Arizona, while the two are tied in Wisconsin.

Trump and Harris are neck-and-neck in the key battleground states of Georgia and Pennsylvania.

Additional information from the North Carolina survey survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

Additional information from the Michigan survey survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

Additional information from the Virginia survey survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

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