Election 2024: Trump +3 in Georgia, Tied With Harris in Pennsylvania

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are neck-and-neck in two key battleground states.

A new telephone and online survey by Rasmussen Reports and American Thinker finds that, if the election were held today, 50% of Likely Georgia voters would vote for Trump, while 47% would vote for Harris. In Pennsylvania, Trump and Harris are tied, with each getting 48% of Likely Voters in the state. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The economy is the top issue in both states, with 39% of likely voters in Georgia voters and 37% in Pennsylvania naming it as most important. In Georgia, border security (16%) is the second most important issue, followed by abortion (11%). In Pennsylvania, abortion (17%) is second, followed by border security (15%).

(Not getting our eNewsletter? Sign up HERE. Already signed up? Try adding updates@rasmussenreports.com to your contacts or whitelisting us. Still having trouble – email subscriptions@rasmussenreports.com. If it's in the news, it's in our polls).

Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,152 Georgia Likely Voters and 1,202 Pennsylvania Likely Voters was conducted on September 19-22, 2024, by Rasmussen Reports and American Thinker. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

When “leaners” are included in the totals, Harris leads in Pennsylvania by one point, 50% to Trump’s 49%, while Trump’s lead in Georgia becomes four points, with 51% to Harris’s 47%.

Pennsylvania voters expressed clear preferences on economic policies.

“On the economy, 43% of poll respondents said that their view of Joe Biden’s economic policies made them less likely to support Harris, versus 30% who said those policies made them more likely to support her,” said American Thinker managing editor Andrea Widburg. “In contrast, 50% of likely Pennsylvania voters believe Trump can be trusted more to improve America’s economic situation, versus 46% believing the same of Harris.”

Widburg highlighted Georgia voters’ views on immigration.

“On immigration, Georgia voters want fewer illegal aliens, not more,” she noted. “Given a choice between a candidate who supports amnesty and one who supports deportation, 53% would back a deportation candidate, with 30% backing an amnesty candidate. Fifty-nine percent (59%) of them feel that the government is doing too little to stop the flow of illegal aliens across the border. Overall, Georgia voters favor Trump by 56% to Harris’s 39% when it comes to trusting one of the candidates to secure the southern border. If Georgia voters had their way, 24% would stop all immigration, while another 27% would cap immigration at 500,000 annually.”

Among other findings of the Rasmussen Reports/American Thinker survey of Pennsylvania and Georgia voters:

– The Pennsylvania election for U.S. Senate is a dead heat, with Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr. and Republican challenger David McCormick each getting 45% of  the vote, five percent (5%) saying they prefer some other candidate and another five percent (5%) undecided.

– In the battle to control the U.S. House of Representatives, Republicans have an edge on the so-called “generic ballot” question in both states. In Georgia, 49% would vote for Republicans and 44% would vote for Democrats in congressional elections, while in Pennsylvania, 49% would vote for Republicans and 47% would vote for Democrats.

– In Pennsylvania, Trump gets 88% of the Republican vote and Harris gets 88% of Democrats. Among Pennsylvania voters unaffiliated with either major party, Trump gets 47% to Harris’s 41%. When “leaners” are included, Trump’s margin among unaffiliated voters is just three points.

– In Georgia, Trump gets 92% of the Republican vote and Harris gets 89% of Democrats. Among unaffiliated voters in Georgia, Harris gets 49% to Trump’s 46%.

– In Pennsylvania, 52% of whites, 23% of black voters, and 48% of other minorities would vote for Trump. Forty-five percent (45%) of whites, 71% of black voters and 50% of other minorities would vote for Harris.

– In Georgia, 65% of whites, 19% of black voters, and 53% of other minorities would vote for Trump. Thirty-three percent (33%) of whites, 76% of black voters and 43% of other minorities would vote for Harris.

Parties and personalities are not the decisive factor in how most voters make their presidential choices.

Nearly half of voters say Harris won this month’s televised debate with Trump, and most approve of Trump’s decision not to debate Harris again.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) or follow us on Facebook. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.