GOP Still Leads on Generic Congressional Ballot

Less than a month before Election Day, Republicans have a two-point lead in their battle to maintain their narrow House majority.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that if the elections for Congress were held today, 47% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 45% would vote for the Democrat. Just three percent (3%) would vote for some other candidate, but another five percent (5%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The GOP’s advantage has shrunk since August, when they led by five points – 48% to 43% – over Democrats. Two years ago, in October 2022, Republicans had a four-point lead on the generic congressional ballot.  In the final poll before Election Day 2022, Republicans held a five-point lead, and scored a net gain of nine seats to capture a 222-213 House majority. 

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The survey of 1,050 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on October 1-3, 2024 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The GOP’s lead on the generic ballot is almost entirely due to their 10-point advantage among independents. Eighty-three percent (87%) of Republicans would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate if the election were held today, while 86% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 45% would vote Republican and 35% would vote Democrat, while six percent (6%) say they’d vote for some other candidate and 13% are undecided. In August, the GOP held a 19-point lead among independents.

The “gender gap” in the generic ballot has changed slightly in the past two months, with men now favoring Republicans by a seven-point margin – 51% to 43% – while women voters are almost evenly divided, with 47% for Democrats to 45% for Republicans. In August, women voters narrowly preferred Republican candidates for Congress by a one-point margin, 45% to 44%.

Voters under 40 prefer Democrats by a five-point margin – 47% to 42% – while those ages 40-64 favor Republicans by a five-point margin, 48% to 43%. Among voters 65 and older, 51% would vote GOP for Congress and 44% would vote for Democrats.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of whites, 22% of black voters, 54% of Hispanics and 47% of other minorities favor Republicans, while 41% of whites, 68% of black voters, 43% of Hispanics and 33% of other minorities would vote Democrat if the election were held today.

Eighty percent (80%) of self-identified liberal voters would vote for Democrats, while 75% of conservatives prefer Republican candidates for Congress. Among moderate voters, 49% favor Democrats and 36% would vote GOP.

Breaking down the electorate by income categories, voters earning more than $100,000 a year favor Democrats, while Republicans lead by 14 points, 52% to 38%, among those with annual incomes between $30,000 and $50,000.

Regardless of who they plan to vote for in November, slightly more voters expect former President Donald Trump to win, despite greater confidence among supporters of Vice President Kamala Harris.

The campaign for the White House remains close, as Trump continues to hold a two-point lead over Harris.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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