Election 2024: Trump +2 in Arizona, Tied With Harris in Wisconsin

Less than six weeks before Election Day, former President Donald Trump has a narrow lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in Arizona, while the two are tied in Wisconsin.

A new telephone and online survey by Rasmussen Reports and American Thinker finds that, if the election were held today, 49% of Likely Arizona voters would vote for Trump, while 47% would vote for Harris. In Wisconsin, Trump and Harris are tied, with each getting 49% of Likely Voters in the state. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The economy is the top issue in both states, with 33% of likely voters in Arizona voters and 29% in Wisconsin naming it as most important. In Arizona, border security (22%) is the second most important issue, followed by abortion (15%). In Wisconsin, border security and abortion at tied as the second-most important issue, each with 17%.

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The survey of 1,071 Wisconsin Likely Voters and 1,030 Arizona Likely Voters was conducted on September 19-22, 2024, by Rasmussen Reports and American Thinker. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

In Arizona, while voters named the economy as the most important issue, “when asked what the incoming president’s priorities should be, illegal immigration rose to the top of the list (31%), followed by rising prices (27%),” American Thinker managing editor Andrea Widburg said. “Given a choice between a generic candidate who supports amnesty and one who supports deportation, 51% [of Arizona voters] would back a deportation candidate, with 33% backing an amnesty candidate. Sixty-six percent of them feel that the government is doing too little to stop the flow of illegal aliens across the border.”

In Wisconsin, the tie result between Harris and Trump is mainly due to “the four issues that concern Wisconsin voters: the economy, immigration, energy policy, and abortion,” Widburg said. “On the first two, a majority of voters believe that Trump is the stronger candidate; on the last two, a slight majority side with Harris on energy issues, while those who support Harris are also strongly pro-abortion. In addition, despite seemingly liking Harris more, Wisconsinites are unhappy about the past four years.”

Among other findings of the Rasmussen Reports/American Thinker survey of Pennsylvania and Georgia voters:

– In Wisconsin, incumbent Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin has a four-point lead – 49% to 45% – over Republican challenger Eric Hovde.

– In the Arizona contest to replace retiring Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, Democrat Ruben Gallego has a two-point lead – 47% to 45% – over Republican Kari Lake.

– Harris is viewed favorably by more voters in Wisconsin (52%) than Arizona (48%), while the reverse is true for Trump, who is viewed favorably by 51% of voters in Arizona and 47% in Wisconsin.

– In the battle to control the U.S. House of Representatives, Republicans have a four-point lead on the so-called “generic ballot” question in Arizona, while they are tied with Democrats in Wisconsin. In Arizona, 49% would vote for Republicans and 45% would vote for Democrats in congressional elections, while in Wisconsin, Democrats and Republicans each get 47% support.

– In Arizona, 50% of whites, 36% of black voters, and 48% of other minorities would vote for Trump. Forty-five percent (45%) of whites, 65% of black voters and 46% of other minorities would vote for Harris.

– In Wisconsin, 49% of whites, 66% of black voters, and 34% of other minorities would vote for Harris. Forty-nine percent (49%) of whites, 30% of black voters and 60% of other minorities would vote for Trump.

Trump and Harris are neck-and-neck in the key battleground states of Georgia and Pennsylvania.

When it comes to the issue of immigration policy, Trump has a clear advantage over Harris.

Additional information from the Arizona survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

Additional information from the Wisconsin survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

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