Election 2024: Trump Now +3 in Pennsylvania

Former President Donald Trump has opened a three-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania

A new telephone and online survey by Rasmussen Reports and American Thinker finds that, if the election were held today, 50% of Likely Pennsylvania voters would vote for Trump, while 47% would vote for Harris. In September, Trump and Harris were tied in Pennsylvania at 48% each. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

In Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate race, incumbent Democratic Sen. Bob Casey Jr. leads, with 47% to 45% for his Republican challenger, David McCormick. Three percent (3%) say they’d vote for third-party candidates in the Senate race, while six percent (6%) are undecided.

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The survey of 1,072 Pennsylvania Likely Voters was conducted on October 9-13, 2024, by Rasmussen Reports and American Thinker. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Thirty-three percent (33%) of Pennsylvania voters say the economy is the most important issue in this year’s election, followed by border security (21%) and abortion (17%). However, when asked which issue the next president should address first, illegal immigration is in the top spot (31%), with rising prices (27%) and “protecting our democracy” (24%) following behind.

American Thinker managing editor Andrea Widburg said: “Pennsylvania voters continue to be deeply unhappy with the state of things in America, which is always bad for the incumbent. By a huge margin (75% to 20%), they think that the way the federal government does business needs a major change. Fifty-eight percent (58%) say they’re not better off than they were four years ago, 55% view their children’s future with gloom, and 53% say that they don’t trust the federal government.”

Among other findings of the Rasmussen Reports/American Thinker survey of Pennsylvania voters:

– Trump benefits from both higher partisan intensity and a seven-point advantage among independents. Eight-nine percent (89%) of Republican voters choose Trump, while 85% of Democrats pick Harris. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 47% would vote for Trump and 40% would vote for Harris. Ten percent (10%) of unaffiliated voters remain undecided.

– Casey’s stronger performance in the Senate race is mainly due to the fact that he and McCormick are even among independents – each with 40% – although 14% of unaffiliated voters are still undecided between the Senate contenders.

– In the battle to control the U.S. House of Representatives, Republicans have an edge on the so-called “generic ballot” question in Pennsylvania, where 49% would vote for Republicans and 46% would vote for Democrats.

– Fifty-four percent (54%) of whites, 30% of black voters and 40% of other minorities in Pennsylvania would vote for Trump, while 43% of whites, 66% of black voters and 55% of other minorities would vote for Harris.

– The so-called “gender gap” is very wide in the Pennsylvania electorate, where men favor Trump by a 16-point margin over Harris, while women voters favor Harris by a 12-point margin.

– Only 35% of Pennsylvania voters say they’re better off than they were four years ago, while 58% say they’re not. Among those who say they are better off, 86% would vote for Harris, while among those who aren’t better off than they were four years ago, 75% would vote for Trump.

– Among Pennsylvania voters who say they voted for Trump in 2020, 91% plan to vote for him again, while 87% of those who voted for Biden four years ago would vote for Harris.

– While Harris leads in Philadephia and its suburbs, Trump leads in every other region of Pennsylvania.

“The momentum favors Trump and, as Scott Adams says, in a dynamic situation, the momentum can be even more important than the actual numbers,” American Thinker’s Widburg said. “Despite the media’s best efforts to sugarcoat the Harris-Biden administration and Harris herself, American voters don’t like what’s happening in America. It’s no wonder that growing numbers of  Americans believe that Trump can be trusted to make things better.”

Most voters want the Federal Emergency Management Agency to concentrate on helping Americans, but most Democrats think it’s fine for FEMA funds to be spent helping immigrants. 

After Democrat Tim Walz and Republican J.D. Vance met in their only televised debate, the GOP vice presidential candidate gets higher marks from voters. 

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

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