June 6, 2024
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— A persistent finding in swing state polls is that Democrats are doing better in Senate races than Joe Biden is doing in the presidential race.
— At the topline, 2016 and 2020 produced hardly any split presidential and Senate results, suggesting that perhaps the presidential and Senate polling should converge.
— However, even in those years, there still was variation from state to state between the presidential and Senate margins.
— Focusing on the Senate races in the presidential swing states distracts from the races that will truly decide the Senate majority: red state seats with Democratic incumbents, Montana and Ohio.