July 11, 2024
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— On Monday, Rep. Angie Craig (D, MN-2) became the first House Democrat from a marginal district to call for President Joe Biden to drop his reelection effort.
— With Biden intent on continuing his campaign, we thought it would be worth examining how his current polling could impact the House playing field.
— If the national popular vote were tied, we would expect Donald Trump to carry 10 additional House seats, compared to his 2020 result.
— If Trump won the popular vote by closer to three points, about where national polling suggests he is now, he could be positioned to flip about two-dozen previously Biden-won districts.
— It is possible that, even though the practice has been on the decline for some time, ticket-splitting may make something of a comeback in 2024.