Election 2024: Trump 47%, Biden 44%

Less than four months before Election Day, former President Donald Trump continues to lead President Joe Biden.

A new telephone and online survey by Rasmussen Reports and the Heartland Institute finds that in a two-way contest between Biden and Trump, 47% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose Trump and 44% would vote for Biden. This survey was taken before last weekend’s assassination attempt against Trump at a Pennsylvania rally. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

When third-party candidates are included, Trump’s lead expands to a five-point margin. In a six-way matchup including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Green Party candidate Jill Stein, former Harvard Professor Cornell West and Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver, 44% would vote for Trump, 39% would vote for Biden and eight percent (8%) would vote for Kennedy, with two percent (2%) each for West and Stein, and one percent (1%) rfor Oliver.

“The American people realized after watching the first debate that the legacy media and the government were lying to them for years, covering up the obvious, troubling, and rapid decline in President Biden’s physical and mental strength,” said Jim Lakely, vice president of the Heartland Institute. “In short, they were all hiding the fact that our president has dementia. As millions of American families know, dementia is not a condition that gets better. It only gets worse. Combined with presiding over a presidency with policies that have made every aspect of American life worse, it’s hard to see how Biden’s polling numbers don’t also continue to get worse. Leaders in his own party see this, too. That’s why we are witnessing the unprecedented spectacle of Democrat leaders and donors urging a man who brags of getting more votes for president than anyone in history to step aside and not seek re-election.”

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The survey of 2,466 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on July 5-12, 2024 by Rasmussen Reports and the Heartland Institute. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Although the survey found a slight edge in partisan intensity favoring Biden, Trump benefits from a 19-point advantage among independent voters. In a two-way matchup, 81% of Democrats would vote for Biden and 79% of Republicans would vote for Trump. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, however, 51% would vote for Trump and 32% for Biden.

In the six-way matchup, 12% of Democrats and 14% of Republicans say they’d vote for third-party candidates, as would 19% of unaffiliated voters. Kennedy’s strongest support is among black and Hispanic voters.

Among other findings of the Rasmussen Reports/Heartland Institute national survey of Likely Voters:

– The economy (27%) and border security (20%) lead the list of issues that voters consider most important in this year’s election. Ten percent (10%) consider abortion the most important issue, follow by climate change (9%), violent crime (8%), government corruption (8%), global conflicts and war (5%) and education (4%).

– If the elections for Congress were held today, 46% would vote for the Republican candidate, while 42% would vote for the Democratic candidate. Six percent (6%) say they’d vote for some other candidate and another six percent (6%) are not sure.

– Forty-four percent (44%) of voters view Biden favorably, including 26% with a Very Favorable impression. Fifty-five percent (55%) view Biden unfavorably, including 43% with a Very Unfavorable opinion.

– Fifty-one percent (51%) of voters view Trump favorably, including 30% with a Very Favorable impression. Forty-eight percent (48%) view Trump unfavorably, including 40% with a Very Unfavorable opinion.

– Election integrity is a major concern for many voters. Sixty-two percent (62%) are concerned that cheating will affect the outcome of this year’s election, including 37% who are Very Concerned. Just 15% say they are Not At All Concerned about cheating in this year’s election. Nearly one-in-five voters (18%) say that, during the 2020 election, they personally received more than one official ballot in the mail or received a ballot for someone who does not live at their address.

Nearly half of American voters would support laws to protect U.S. business from a European Union (EU) policy that imposes strict environmental, climate, and social justice rules on companies.

Despite concerns about climate change, increased domestic oil and gas production is favored by a majority of voters in key “battleground” states in this year’s presidential election. 

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

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