January 11, 2024
A brief history of the Hawkeye State’s caucus, and some areas to watch.
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— Monday night’s Iowa Republican caucus kicks off the presidential nominating season.
— The caucus has a spotty history of voting for the eventual nominee, particularly on the Republican side, although Donald Trump is a big favorite both in Iowa and nationally. Ron DeSantis is under the most pressure to perform, as he has basically bet his entire campaign on Iowa.
— To the extent frontrunning Donald Trump shows weakness, look for it in places like the Des Moines suburbs as well as a couple of counties with major universities.
— Meanwhile, a quartet of counties in the state’s northwestern corner should give us some indicators of where the Republicans’ strongest religious conservatives are in this race.