Barely Six Weeks Until Election Day: Where are the Polls?

Election Day is quickly approaching, just over six weeks away. Each day brings surprises, from another assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump to another "I grew up as a middle-class kid" from Vice President Kamala Harris.

Early voting has started in some states, and most voters have made their choice for President. As the election approaches in six weeks, opinion polls are tightening, suggesting more accurate results.

What do the polls indicate for the third week of September?

Rasmussen Reports polls are considered highly accurate because they survey likely voters, rather than simply registered voters or whoever answers the pollsters' phone call.

Their most recent post-presidential debate poll shows Trump narrowly ahead: "49% of likely U.S. voters would vote for Trump, while 47% would vote for Harris."

AtlasIntel, another reputable pollster, uses a similar methodology to Rasmussen Reports by surveying likely voters. They noted similar results, with Trump leading Harris by 3 points, 51% to 48% in a head-to-head matchup.

Trump leads Harris on every issue except reproductive rights and environmental protection, which are the two key issues for the left. Inflation, the economy and jobs, and immigration are seen as much bigger challenges for the US and more important to voters than abortion and global warming.

Interestingly, Rasmussen Reports and Atlas are the only two polls in the Real Clear Politics average that show Trump ahead. They have also traditionally been the most accurate polls.

In the battleground states, crucial for the Electoral College, Trump leads in Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia, while Harris leads in Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

In other words, it's still too close to call.

Let's leave the statistics and algorithms behind. What are some intangible metrics indicating the respective popularity of the two presidential candidates?

Labor unions, especially the Teamsters, support Democrat candidates. Kamala Harris is “the first Democrat in decades to not get Teamsters endorsement,” according to Newsweek.

The Teamsters conducted a straw poll of members. "During a voting window from July 24 to September 15, rank-and-file Teamsters voted 59.6 percent for the union to endorse Trump, compared to 34 percent for Harris.”

One of the most reliable Democrat voting blocs wants Donald Trump in the White House by an almost two-to-one margin. Not surprisingly, the Teamsters declined to endorse in the 2024 presidential race for the first time.

It appears that the Teamsters find endorsing Trump as a Republican to be a bridge too far. Instead of acknowledging the will of its members, the organization will remain silent. And yet, Democrats claim Trump is the "threat to democracy”?

Another indication was Trump’s recent rally on Long Island. Notably, Ronald Reagan was the last Republican to win New York in a presidential election.

Holding a rally in a deep blue state may seem like a fool’s errand, a waste of time and resources. However, Trump's internal polling may indicate otherwise. According to a local news outlet, there was an overflow crowd at the rally, with police estimating that at least 50,000 people showed up, even though the coliseum has fewer than 16,000 seats.

Last is Trump’s confidence. Although this is his nature and like it or not, a pillar of his personality, he posted twice on Truth Social a “cease and desist” warning regarding election interference.

He posted, “WHEN I WIN, those people that CHEATED will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the Law, which will include long-term prison sentences so that this Depravity of Justice does not happen again.”

Empty threats and Trump's bravado – or does he possess knowledge that the rest of us do not?

If Trump, like many others, believes the 2020 election was "irregular," why would he put himself through another election with an almost similar outcome? Unless these "irregularities" have been fixed. Have they?

What has Trump done behind the scenes? I wish I knew. Only Trump and his inner circle know, and they won’t say anything. If he loses on November 5, or whenever the election is deemed over, he will likely be sent to prison for life, along with many of his family and supporters.

He appears confident and optimistic, even warning his political opponents about the challenges ahead. During the Republican convention and at his rallies, Trump frequently plays "Nessun Dorma," a piece from the end of a Puccini opera and also from the final scene of "The Sum of All Fears," where a few deep state actors face their ultimate judgment for treason.

To me, it's simply a gut feeling, a vague indication of how the election might unfold.

Regardless of polls and sentiments, it will be a close race, and some of the deciding issues may still be unknown. But it is sure to be an eventful fall!

Brian C. Joondeph, M.D., is a physician and writer.

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