Election 2024: Moreno 45%, Sherrod 44% in Ohio Senate Race

In the battle to control the U.S. Senate, Republican challenger Bernie Moreno has a slight lead over Ohio’s incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown.

A new telephone and online survey by Rasmussen Reports and American Thinker finds that, if the election were held today, 45% of Likely Ohio voters would vote for Moreno, while 44% would vote for Brown. Four percent (4%) say they would vote for some other candidate, while six percent (6%) are still undecided. In August, Brown had a five-point lead – 47% to Moreno’s 42% – in Ohio. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

In the presidential race, former President Donald Trump, who won Ohio in both 2016 and 2020, appears headed toward another victory in the Buckeye State. Fifty-one percent (51%) of Ohio voters say they’ll vote for Trump, while 44% favor Harris. That finding is unchanged from the August survey.

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The survey of 1,051 Ohio Likely Voters was conducted on October 9-14, 2024, by Rasmussen Reports and American Thinker. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

American Thinker managing editor Andrea Widburg noted Ohio’s historic role as a “bellwether” state, usually predicting the presidential outcome.

“These results show that the state that has a long history of being equally open to both parties’ candidates and of selecting winners is firmly in the Republican camp this time around,” Widburg said. “In addition, Ohioans are very unhappy with the state of America over the last four years, and they mistrust the government and the Democrat party.”

Thirty percent (30%) of Ohio voters say the economy is the most important issue in this year’s election, followed by border security (21%) and abortion (15%). However, when asked which issue the next president should address first, illegal immigration is in the top spot (32%), with rising prices (28%), “protecting our democracy” (23%) and abortion rights (16%) following behind.

Among other findings of the Rasmussen Reports/American Thinker survey of Ohio voters:

– The “gender gap” is a significant factor in the Senate race, with men favoring Moreno by a five-point margin – 48% to Brown’s 43% – while women voters favor Brown by four-point margin, 46% to Moreno’s 42%.

– Ohio voters in their 40s favor Brown, while a majority of those 50 and older favor Moreno in the Senate race.

– Forty-nine percent (49%) of whites, 22% of black voters and 42% of other minorities would vote for Moreno in the Senate election, while 43% of whites, 55% of black voters and 49% of other minorities would vote for Brown.

– In the battle to control the U.S. House of Representatives, Republicans have an eight-point advantage on the so-called “generic ballot” question in Ohio, where 51% would vote for Republicans and 43% would vote for Democrats.

– Thirty-seven percent (37%) of Ohio voters say they’re better off than they were four years ago, but a majority (57%) say they’re not better off. Among voters who aren’t better off than they were four years ago, 68% would vote for Moreno in the Senate election.

– Sixty-six percent (66%) of Ohio voters are concerned that the outcome of the presidential election will be affected by cheating, including 39% who are Very Concerned that cheating could affect the election.

By nearly a 2-to-1 margin, voters say a candidate’s competence matters more than caring when it comes to this year’s presidential election.

Trump has gained a two-point lead over Harris in the battleground state of Wisconsin, while the two candidates are still tied in Michigan.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

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