If it's in the News, it's in our Polls. Public opinion polling since 2003.

Political Commentary

Most Recent Releases

March 6, 2024

The Renewable Scam By John Stossel

   "We're building a clean energy future," says President Joe Biden.

March 5, 2024

Veepstakes Give Trump an Edge By Daniel McCarthy

Donald Trump is already beating Joe Biden; polls last weekend from The New York Times, Wall Street Journal, CBS News and Fox News all agree.

March 5, 2024

Biden's OTHER Immigration Calamity By Stephen Moore

Recent polling shows President Joe Biden's open-border immigration policy is now ranked as the No. 1 or 2 problem facing America -- in part because of the havoc in our large cities where the millions of migrants are now residing.

March 1, 2024

Some Idiosyncratic Observations of the Elections So Far By Michael Barone

Herewith some idiosyncratic, perhaps eccentric, observations on the electoral contests so far in this presidential cycle.

1. Turnout is down. In the first five contests -- the Iowa and Nevada caucuses and the New Hampshire, South Carolina and Michigan primaries -- Republican turnout was down from 2016, the most recent cycle with serious contests. That's based on precincts currently reporting and the ace New York Times number crunchers' estimates of as-yet-uncounted votes.

White letter R on blue background
February 29, 2024

The Postwar History of Senate/Presidential Ticket-Splitting, Part Two By J. Miles Coleman

As Democrats try to hold the Senate through defending red states, a look at the rise and fall of split Senate outcomes in presidential years.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— This is the second part of our history of presidential-Senate split-ticket results, from World War II to now. This part covers the mid-1980s to present, a timeframe that started with many instances of split results and ended with hardly any at all.

— In 1984 and 1988, amidst large GOP victories at the presidential level, more than a dozen Republican-won states sent Democrats to the Senate both years.

— The 1990s, when Democrats were successful at the presidential level, split-ticket voting tended to benefit Republicans in the Senate, making the decade an exception in the postwar era.

— In the 2000s, Democrats were back to benefitting from the split-ticket dynamic, first under a Republican president, George W. Bush, then with a Democrat, Barack Obama.

— Montana, a state which Senate Democrats are defending this year in a Toss-up race, is the state that has split its ticket most often in the postwar era. And almost every state has split its ticket at least once during that time.

February 28, 2024

Michigan Takes a U-Turn Back to the Rust Belt By Stephen Moore

No state in modern times has transitioned from a worker freedom state to one that forces workers to join a union and pay dues to labor bosses. All the momentum across the country in the last two decades has been in the opposite direction: allowing workers the right to choose a union -- or not.

February 28, 2024

Taxation Without Reason By John Stossel

   My income tax is due in a few weeks!

February 27, 2024

Why Online News Isn't Saving Journalism By Daniel McCarthy

   Bad news for the media often feels like good news for conservatives.

February 23, 2024

Biden Open-Door Policy: Some Facts and Historical Context By Michael Barone

What's been missing these past couple of months from the coverage of and debate over the failed immigration bill? Some important basic facts and lots of historical context.

White letter R on blue background
February 22, 2024

The Postwar History of Senate/Presidential Ticket-Splitting, Part One By J. Miles Coleman

As Democrats try to hold the Senate through defending red states, a look at the rise and fall of split Senate outcomes in presidential years.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— In the post-World War II era, there have been nearly 200 instances of states voting for one party for president and another for Senate in presidential election years.

— This type of ticket splitting has generally been to the benefit of Democrats, who have been out of the White House for a slight majority of that timespan.

— The split-ticket trend has been declining, but Democrats will want to reverse that to some degree this year.

February 21, 2024

Our Sneaky Phones By John Stossel

   The government and private companies spy on us.

February 20, 2024

What Biden Bull Market? By Stephen Moore

   President Joe Biden is boasting about the recent stock market rally. He's right that stocks have been on a tear for the last 14 months. The S&P 500 hit 5,000 for the first time in history. That's up from 500 some 30 years ago.

February 16, 2024

America's Dysfunctional Overclass By Michael Barone

   What does America's overclass think of the rest of us? The short answer is "not much." They think ordinary people's splurging on natural resources is destroying the planet and needs to be cut back forcefully. And that the government needs to stamp down on ordinary people enjoying luxuries that, in their view, should be reserved for the top elites.

White letter R on blue background
February 15, 2024

Notes on the State of the Senate By J. Miles Coleman

Analyzing Hogan’s entry in Maryland; deciphering action out west; the 2024 Democratic downside risk.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

–Last week, national Republicans got their best possible Senate recruit in deep blue Maryland, with former Gov. Larry Hogan.

–Though Hogan will be hard pressed to actually win, as has been the case with some other recent “crossover” governors who’ve run in Senate races, his candidacy is notable enough that it moves Maryland onto the periphery of the competitive map.

–In Montana, Rep. Matt Rosendale (R, MT-2) finally entered his state’s Senate contest, setting up a primary with Tim Sheehy, who national Republicans prefer.

— In Arizona, Kari Lake, a pro-Trump election denier, received the nod from national Republicans, though Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s (I-AZ) plans are still not known.

— With Democrats being so exposed this cycle—they hold roughly two-thirds of the Senate seats that will be up—it’ll be important for them to minimize their losses.

February 14, 2024

Skewed News By John Stossel

On CNN, a "reporter" interviewing Vice President Kamala Harris gushes, "I'm struck, just in your presence! Looking you in the eye, with your passion ... "
Really?

February 13, 2024

Vladimir Putin -- A Passive Aggressor By Daniel McCarthy

Vladimir Putin is fighting a war he can't win against forces he doesn't understand.

February 9, 2024

Toward a Demotic Republican Party By Michael Barone

   What happens when a political party becomes demotic? Before answering the question, note that the word in question is not demonic, from the Greek word daimon, meaning a deity (remember that the Greek gods were notoriously jealous and greedy), but demotic, from the Greek word demos, meaning the people -- the same root as democratic.

White letter R on blue background
February 8, 2024

The Race for the House, Part Two By Kyle Kondik

Rating changes in 7 districts a mixed bag for each party; previewing the NY-3 special.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— We are making 7 House rating changes this week, with 4 benefiting Democrats and 3 benefiting Republicans.

— Republicans continue to be closer to the magic number of 218 in our ratings than Democrats, but there are enough Toss-up races that we broadly consider the race for the House to be a Toss-up overall.

— The NY-3 special remains highly competitive less than a week before the election.

February 7, 2024

AI Is Coming for Your Job? By John Stossel

The media warn, "Artificial intelligence will replace millions of jobs."

February 6, 2024

Is Taylor Swift Trouble for Trump? By Daniel McCarthy

   She's just won the Grammy for album of the year.