Americans today are a bit more likely to consider themselves Democrats than they did around Election Day 2004. However, the Democrats are not doing quite as well as they did in March of that election year.

These results come from Rasmussen Reports tracking surveys of 15,000 voters per month. Monthly data from January 2004 to March 2006 can be reviewed here.

A look at our month-by-month party affiliation data yields several observations and one big question for Election 2006. First, the observations.

1) Party allegiances tend to be quite stable over time. Despite the enormous news and political events of the past 27 months, the gap between Republicans and Democrats has never varied by more than 3.4 percentage points from highest to lowest. On a quarterly basis, the gap barely tops 2 percentage points.

2) Democrats have some gained ground since Election 2004. On Election Day, among all adults, the D's had a one-and-a-half percentage point advantage in allegiance. That shrunk to less than a point in early 2005 and has grown to nearly 3 points today.

3) Republicans gained ground during the 2004 campaign season... from a low of a four point disadvantage in March to a point-and-a-half in October and November.

Here's the big question for 2006... which of the trends is more relevant? If the post-Election trend continues, that's good news for the Democrats. However, if the Republicans once again gain ground during the election year, hopes of a Democratic takeover will disappear.

Naturally, there's a theory to support each side of the argument. For Democrats, it's pretty straightforward. Americans have had it with President Bush, the culture of corruption, and Republican governance in general. The tide has turned.

For Republicans, at least one analyst believes that the GOP always gains ground during election years and loses it in the off years. Why? In his view, the media favors Democrats which explains the GOP decline during off years. However, during a campaign season, as candidates and their campaigns become more vocal and visible, the campaigns actually diminish the impact of the media. This, he believes, is why the GOP will gain ground in Election 2006.

For the record, the Democrats had a 3.4 percentage point advantage over the GOP in the first quarter of 2004. They have a 2.4 percentage point advantage today.