Election 2014: Louisiana Senate

Republican Congressman Bill Cassidy still holds a double-digit lead over incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu going into tomorrow’s Louisiana Senate runoff.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Louisiana Voters shows Cassidy leading Landrieu by 16 points – 56% to 40%. Four percent (4%) are still undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This marks little change from the 56% to 41% lead Cassidy held two weeks ago.

Among the 89% who say they will definitely vote in the runoff election, Cassidy leads 57% to 40%.

Thirty percent (30%) say they have voted already, and the Republican holds a narrower 50% to 44% lead in this group. He’s ahead 58% to 39% among the 70% who say they have yet to cast their ballots.

A Cassidy win is not unexpected. Landrieu, a member of the Senate since 1997, edged Cassidy 42% to 41% last month on Election Day, with eight candidates officially in the race. But three of those candidates were Republicans, and they accounted for 56% of the vote. Under Louisiana’s so-called “jungle primary” rules, the contest will be decided by the December 6 runoff because no candidate cleared the 50% mark on Election Day.

Landrieu is also burdened with a president and his policies that are highly unpopular in Louisiana. Cassidy has hammered his opponent throughout the campaign for her voting record in support of President Obama’s agenda.

Obamacare is the prime example. Just 35% of voters in the Pelican State view the new national health care law favorably, while 61% share an unfavorable opinion of it. This is even higher disapproval than is found nationally. In Louisiana, this includes 18% with a Very Favorable view of the law and 50% with a Very Unfavorable one.

Landrieu earns 90% of the vote from those with a Very Favorable opinion, but Cassidy has 91% support from the much larger group with a Very Unfavorable view.

Fifteen percent (15%) of all voters in Louisiana say they have been helped by the health care law. Thirty-nine percent (39%) say they have been hurt by it, slightly higher than the finding nationally. Forty-two percent (42%) say the law has not impacted them personally.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters in Louisiana was conducted on December 2-4, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Following Election Day, Republicans have a 53 to 46 majority in the new Senate that will be seated in January. This does not count the outcome of the contest in Louisiana.

This survey was taken just after the only debate between Landrieu and Cassidy, held on Monday night. Thirty-four percent (34%) of the state’s voters say they have changed the way they were going to vote after watching a debate between candidates for statewide office. Fifty-nine percent (59%) say they have not ever changed their vote because of a debate, compared to 53% of voters nationwide.

But even among voters who say a debate has caused them to change a vote, Cassidy leads 52% to 45%.

Sixty-one percent (61%) of all Louisiana voters think Congress should find ways to stop the president’s new plan to protect up to five million illegal immigrants from deportation. That compares to 48% of voters nationally. Just 30% of the state’s voters think Congress should allow the president’s plan to stand.

Landrieu is viewed favorably by 43% of voters in Louisiana and unfavorably by 55%. This includes 29% with a Very Favorable opinion of her and 42% with a Very Unfavorable one.

For Cassidy, favorables are 55% and unfavorable 42%, including 26% with a Very Favorable opinion and 28% who view him Very Unfavorably.

Only 39% of Louisiana voters approve of the job the president is doing, while 59% disapprove. This includes 26% who Strongly Approve and 53% who Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a much worse job approval rating in the state than he earns nationally.

Forty-seven percent (47%) approve of the job Republican Governor Bobby Jindal is doing, with 18% who Strongly Approve. Fifty percent (50%) disapprove of his job performance, including 32% who Strongly Disapprove.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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