Commentary By Kyle Kondik

Trump’s Approval: Still Positive, but Overperformance with Democratic-Leaning Groups May Be Hard to Maintain By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— As his second term enters its second month, Donald Trump retains a positive approval rating in polling averages.

— However, his numbers in polling averages are weaker now than a few weeks ago, driven more by an increase in disapproval than a decline in approval.

— Compared to his 2024 performance with certain demographic groups based on the national exit poll, Trump is overperforming the most with some typically Democratic constituencies.

Our Initial Senate Ratings: Republicans Start as Strong Favorites to Hold Majority By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— While Republicans, who will be defending 22 of the 35 Senate seats up in 2026, may have the political environment working against them next year, they are still favored to retain the chamber.

— Part of the reason for this is that Democrats hold two of our three initial Toss-up races, Georgia and Michigan, while GOP-held North Carolina will likely see another hotly-contested Senate race.

— We are giving Maine’s Susan Collins (R) a degree of deference by starting her race as Leans Republican, although as the only Republican representing a Kamala Harris-won state, it is hard to see Democrats getting close to a majority without her seat.

— If Democrats were to be on track to regain the Senate by the end of the decade, they would almost certainly have to come out of the 2026 cycle with a net gain of seats.

The 2024 Crossover House Seats: Overall Number Remains Low with Few Harris-District Republicans By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Just 16 districts voted for one party for president and the other for House, which is the same historically-low total as 2020.

— But there are 13 Democrats in Donald Trump-won districts compared to just 3 Republicans in Kamala Harris-won districts.

How the Other Half Votes: The Big Counties Versus the Rest of the Country in 2024 By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— While the nation has more than 3,100 counties, just about 150 of them cast roughly half of all presidential votes.

— In the Trump era, the gap between the biggest counties and the rest of the country is larger than it was previously, although the overall difference contracted slightly in both 2020 and then 2024 after an initial large widening in 2016.

— In improving his margin in the national popular vote by about 6 points from 2020, Donald Trump ran further ahead of his 2020 margin in the nation’s most vote-rich counties than he did in the rest of the country.

The End of the Line for Red State Senate Democrats By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— As part of capturing the Senate this year, Republicans knocked out the final remaining Democratic senators from a group of 20 states that have consistently voted Republican for president since at least the 2000 election.

— A quarter-century ago, Democrats held nearly a third of the Senate seats from these 20 states. But that tally was down to just 2 leading into this election, and Republican victories in Montana and West Virginia reduced it to 0.

— Additionally, 5 other states backed a Democratic presidential candidate at least once this century but voted for Donald Trump in all 3 of his elections. Republicans now hold all of the Senate seats in these states as well.

— In total, these 25 states hold half the Senate seats. Realistically, Democrats can’t win future Senate majorities without making at least some inroads back into this now fully Republican bloc of states.

The 2024 Senate Undervote: Not High By Historical Standards By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— After the election, many took note of some seemingly unusual patterns in the presidential and Senate voting. Some winning Democrats in states that voted for Donald Trump, for instance, received fewer total votes than Kamala Harris, but still won while Harris lost.

— Some voters likely cast votes just in the presidential race, meaning that there were fewer votes cast in a state’s Senate contest compared to its presidential contest.

— However, there is nothing unusual about this compared to recent history. Senate races almost always have fewer votes cast than presidential races in presidential years.

— In fact, the average size of the Senate “undervote” this year was smaller than many other recent cycles.

— The third party vote was generally larger in key Senate races than in the presidential race, which likely also contributed to the outcomes in certain states. But a higher third-party vote for Senate is also not unusual—it was a feature of some of 2020’s closest Senate races, too.

Rating Changes: Pushing House Toss-ups, Nebraska Senate to Leans Republican By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— We are pushing a few House Toss-ups out of that category this week, leaving revised ratings that show 212 House seats at least leaning Republican, 209 at least leaning Democratic, and 14 Toss-ups.

— Just like in the presidential race, there’s still no favorite in the House.

— We also are moving Sen. Deb Fischer’s (R-NE) race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican, as the Republican cavalry has had to ride in to help her in her contest against independent Dan Osborn.

Five House Rating Changes as Overall Battle for Majority Remains Tight By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— We are changing 5 House ratings this week, although that does not change our overall arithmetic in the House. We continue to view the race for the chamber as effectively a 50-50 proposition.

— The real playing field may be smaller than what we saw in the 2022 election cycle, if current outside spending is any indication.

— Beyond our rating changes, we have some observations about key races across the competitive map, including in Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Nebraska, North Carolina, and Virginia.

Polling Error in 2016-2020: Look Out for Wisconsin By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Swing state polls show an incredibly close race in our 7 Toss-up presidential states right now.

— Final polling did generally overstate Democrats in both the 2016 and 2020 elections in these states, with Wisconsin standing out. Keep that in mind as polling shows Kamala Harris holding up a little bit better in the Badger State than elsewhere.

— If polls are understating Donald Trump again, he of course is in a great position to win given how competitive he already is in the core swing states. But there are good reasons to believe that he is not being overstated this time.

Harris’s VP Choice: Her Options, and the Possible Home State Effects By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Because of the unprecedented nature of the 2024 campaign, Vice President Kamala Harris, who stepped up to lead the Democratic ticket less than two weeks ago, has had an unusually abbreviated window in which to vet her own vice presidential prospects.

— The leading contenders to join Harris on the ticket are Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) and Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), although we are watching several other names.

— If Harris picks a running mate from a true swing state (like Arizona or Pennsylvania), it would be unusual, at least considering recent history, as most recent picks have not come from states at the center of the electoral map.

— Research is mixed on the home state bonus afforded by running mates; if any effect does exist, it is likely small—although just a small effect could be decisive in a key state.

Electoral College Rating Changes: Half-Dozen Moves Toward Republicans in What Remains a Toss-up Race By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— We are making six Electoral College rating changes this week, all in favor of Republicans.

— However, we don’t really see a clear favorite in a presidential race with many confounding factors.

— We consider Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to all be must-wins for the Democrats. While one can hypothetically come up with paths to 270 electoral votes for Democrats without them, we don’t find those paths to be compelling.

— Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) remains a favorite in our ratings, but our shift of Pennsylvania to Toss-up in the presidential race prompts a concurrent change in his race, from Likely to Leans Democratic.

President vs. Senate: What to Watch in the Polls, and What History Suggests By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— A persistent finding in swing state polls is that Democrats are doing better in Senate races than Joe Biden is doing in the presidential race.

— At the topline, 2016 and 2020 produced hardly any split presidential and Senate results, suggesting that perhaps the presidential and Senate polling should converge.

— However, even in those years, there still was variation from state to state between the presidential and Senate margins.

— Focusing on the Senate races in the presidential swing states distracts from the races that will truly decide the Senate majority: red state seats with Democratic incumbents, Montana and Ohio.

An Electoral College Time Capsule By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— The six presidential elections held during the 25-year history of the Center for Politics were often close, although most states voted predictably.

— As part of a time capsule we are putting together to be opened at the center’s 50th anniversary in 2049, we are asking our future students to consider what has changed and what has stayed the same.

— Had we done the same exercise when the center was founded 25 years ago, we would have seen an Electoral College alignment from 1976-1996 that looked a lot different than what we’ve become familiar with this century.

Seniors for Biden? Looking Into the Polls Among Another Key Subgroup By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Horse race presidential polling has shown some significant weaknesses for President Biden among at least a couple of key subgroups: young people and Black voters.

— However, some polls have also shown Biden doing unusually well among senior citizens.

— The oldest voters have generally voted to the right of the national vote in recent cycles, and that is probably what we should expect in 2024 as well, despite these polls.

Notes on the State of Politics: March 28, 2024 By Kyle Kondik

The narrowing GOP House majority

Rep. Mike Gallagher’s (R, WI-8) surprising announcement late last week that he would resign on April 19 combined with an earlier and also surprising resignation announcement by now ex-Rep. Ken Buck (R, CO-4) is going to have the effect of further reducing the Republicans’ already-slim House majority.

The Race for the House, Part Two By Kyle Kondik

Rating changes in 7 districts a mixed bag for each party; previewing the NY-3 special.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— We are making 7 House rating changes this week, with 4 benefiting Democrats and 3 benefiting Republicans.

— Republicans continue to be closer to the magic number of 218 in our ratings than Democrats, but there are enough Toss-up races that we broadly consider the race for the House to be a Toss-up overall.

— The NY-3 special remains highly competitive less than a week before the election.

Previewing the Iowa Caucus By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman

A brief history of the Hawkeye State’s caucus, and some areas to watch.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Monday night’s Iowa Republican caucus kicks off the presidential nominating season.

— The caucus has a spotty history of voting for the eventual nominee, particularly on the Republican side, although Donald Trump is a big favorite both in Iowa and nationally. Ron DeSantis is under the most pressure to perform, as he has basically bet his entire campaign on Iowa.

— To the extent frontrunning Donald Trump shows weakness, look for it in places like the Des Moines suburbs as well as a couple of counties with major universities.

— Meanwhile, a quartet of counties in the state’s northwestern corner should give us some indicators of where the Republicans’ strongest religious conservatives are in this race.

The Presidential Race at the Dawn of a New Year By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Despite bad polling and clear weaknesses for President Biden, we are sticking with our initial Electoral College ratings from the summer, which show him doing better than what polls today would indicate, even as there are enough Toss-up electoral votes to make the election anyone’s game.

— We still anticipate a close and competitive election between Biden and former President Trump, whose dominance in the GOP primary race has endured as the Iowa caucus looms.

Putting Biden’s Troubles with Young Voters in Perspective By Kyle Kondik

Youngest voters have been strongly Democratic in recent elections, but the president also has clear weaknesses with that group.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Recent 2024 presidential polling has shown President Biden performing poorly with young voters.

— The 18-29 voting bloc has been reliably Democratic leaning for at least the last several presidential elections.

— Biden’s weakness with young voters is not new, despite doing well among the group in the 2020 general election.

Notes on the State of the 2023 Elections By Kyle Kondik

VA 2023 looks a lot like 2019; ads might help explain a PA oddity; Beshear and disaster relief.

Virginia result looked a lot like four years ago

Vote counts in Virginia are nearly final but not yet certified. There were no late changes to the topline result that seemed likeliest the morning after the election: Democrats won their barest possible majorities in both chambers: 51-49 in the state House of Delegates and 21-19 in the state Senate.