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Rasmussen Consumer Index
Adults With & Without Children Hold Similar Views on State of Economy
Friday, May 09, 2008
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The Rasmussen Consumer Index, which measures the economic confidence of consumers on a daily basis, rebounded three points on Friday to 74.7. Despite today's gain, the Index is just four and a half points above the lowest level ever recorded. Today's reading is up three points from a week ago, but down nearly a point from a month ago, as well as down twenty-five points from the beginning of the year. Nationally, 11% believe the economy is getting better, while 74% think the economy is getting worse. Sixty-one percent (61%) say the economy is currently suffering a recession, while 23% disagree. Adults with and without children hold similar views on the current state of the economy. Just 11% of adults with and without children agree that the economy is getting better these days. Seventy-six percent (76%) of adults with children and 72% of adults without children think the economy is getting worse. Meanwhile, when its comes to the country's recessionary status, 60% of adults with kids and 65% of adults without kids say the economy is currently in a recession. Nearly a quarter of both groups disagree. The Rasmussen Investor Index soared nearly seven points today to 90.5. That's the first time that the Index has been above 90.0 since mid-April. Friday's Index is up seven and half points over the past week, up a half a point over the past month, but down forty-two points over the past year. Among Investors, 70% think the economy is getting worse, while only 16% believe the economy is getting better. Meanwhile, 58% of Investors say the economy is in a recession, while 30% disagree. Rasmussen Employment Index data released last week shows that just 22% of workers report that their firms are hiring. Twenty percent (20%) say their organization is laying people off. Separate polling data released Sunday shows that rising food prices have had a big lifestyle impact on 39% of Americans. Most (54%) believe the push for alternative energy sources is driving up food prices. Sometimes in the day-to-day numbers, it’s difficult to gain a handle on longer-term trends. A month-by-month compilation shows that the Rasmussen Consumer Index fell from 113.4 in April 2007 to 74.8 in April 2008. Most of that decline occurred in the past six months. Prior to the past couple of months, the Index had never fallen below 80.0 at any point in its seven-year history. Six months ago, in October 2007, 31% of Americans rated the economy as good or excellent. At that time, 30% said the economy was in poor shape. Today, just 15% are willing to say the economy is good or excellent. The number who rate the economy as poor has jumped to 52%. It’s hard to overstate the importance of a workplace environment on perceptions of the economy. Among those who work for a firm that is hiring, 31% rate the economy as good or excellent while 30% say poor. Among those who work for a firm that is laying people off, just 2% say the economy is good or excellent while 72% say it is in poor shape (see full month demographic data for April). Overall, in April, just 10% said the economy was getting better while 75% say it was getting worse. Most Americans (52%) now say their own personal finances are getting worse. That’s up ten points from 42% in October. Last fall, just 34% believed the U.S. economy was in a recession. That figure has jumped to 60% today (although government figures suggest that a recession has not officially begun). Most investors (51%) now say their investments have lost value over the past year. In October, only 18% reported a decline in their portfolio. Men remain somewhat less pessimistic than women and Republicans are less pessimistic than Democrats. Entrepreneurs are more upbeat than government employees, private sector employees, or retirees. Other recently released data shows the same general trend. The COUNTRY Financial Security Index released this week showed that confidence in personal finances has hit its lowest point since the survey began last year. The Discover Small Business Watch, the Discover Consumer Spending Monitor, and the Rasmussen Employment Index have all fallen to all-time lows. The Rasmussen Consumer Index and Investor Index are derived from nightly telephone surveys of 500 adults and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The baseline for the Index was established at 100.0 in October 2001. Readings above 100.0 indicate that confidence is higher than in the baseline month. Detailed supplemental information is available for Premium Members. Historical data for the Consumer and Investor indexes as well as attitudes about the economy and personal finances are also available to Premium Members. The Rasmussen Consumer Index reached its highest level ever at 127.0 on January 6, 2004. The all-time low was reached April 27, 2008 at 70.1. The Rasmussen Investor Index reached its highest level ever at 150.9 on January 7, 2004. The lowest level ever measured was 81.3 on March 20, 2008. The baseline for the Rasmussen Consumer Index was established at 100.0 in October 2001. The current reading of 74.7 that overall levels of economic confidence are lower today than the confidence level in the aftermath of the 9-11 terrorist attacks. Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election. Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.
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