Election 2008: Electoral College Update

Electoral College: Obama 217 McCain 174

Friday, October 03, 2008

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New state polling from New Hampshire has moved that state from "Toss-up" to "Leans Democrat" in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. In addition, changes in Rasmussen Markets have shifted Michigan from "Leans Democratic" to "Likely Democratic". With these changes, Obama leads in states with 217 Electoral College votes while McCain is ahead in states with 174 Electoral College votes. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 264, McCain 185.

Currently, states with 58 Electoral College votes are leaning slightly in one way or the other. Six states with a total of 89 votes -- North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Colorado, Nevada, and Virginia -- are pure toss-ups.

State-by-state rankings are summarized in the following table…

State By State Balance of Power
Safe GOP (65)	Likely GOP (109)	Leans GOP (11)	Toss Up (89)	Leans Dem (47)	Likely Dem (71)	Safe Dem (146)
AK (3)	AR (6)	IN (11)	CO (9)	NH (4)	CT (7)	CA (55)
AL (9)	AZ (10)		FL (27)	NM (5)	IA (7)	DE (3)
ID (4)	GA (15)		NC (15)	OR (7)	ME (4)	DC (3)
KS (6)	MO (11)		NV (5)	PA (21)	MI (17)	HI (4)
KY (8)	MS (6)		OH (20)	WI (10)	MN (10)	IL (21)
LA (9)	MT (3)		VA (13)		NJ (15)	MD (10)
OK (7)	NE (5)				WA (11)	MA (12)
TN (11)	ND (3)					NY (31)
UT (5)	SC (8)					RI (4)
WY (3)	SD (3)					VT (3)
	TX (34)
	WV (5)




www.rasmussenreports.com

This Balance of Power Calculator aggregates data from a variety of sources to provide a comprehensive assessment of the state-by-state race for the White House. Data inputs include the latest Rasmussen Reports poll in a state, an average of the latest polling from other firms (the “538 Average”), Rasmussen Markets data, Intrade market data, the aggregated rankings of selected analysts, the state’s voting history and national trends.

As a practical matter, all of the state-by-state changes are driven by the changes seen nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

The table is updated daily. Recent changes include:

History of Changes
Date	State	Shift From	Shift To	Reason
10/3/2008	MI	Leans Dem	Likely Dem	RR Markets
10/3/2008	NH	Toss-Up	Leans Dem	RR Poll
10/2/2008	NM	Toss-Up	Leans Dem	RR Poll
10/2/2008	NC	Leans GOP	Toss-Up	RR Poll
9/27/2008	IA	Leans Dem	Likely Dem	RR Poll
9/25/2008	OH	Leans GOP	Toss-Up	RR Poll
9/25/2008	NC	Likely GOP	Leans GOP	RR Poll
9/23/2008	NH	Leans Dem	Toss-Up	RR Poll
9/19/2008	IN	Likely GOP	Leans GOP	RR Poll
9/13/2008	MO	Leans GOP	Likely GOP	RR Poll
9/09/2008	AK	Likely GOP	Safe GOP	RR Poll
9/09/2008	NM	Leans Dem	Toss-Up	RR Poll
9/09/2008	ND	Leans GOP	Likely GOP	RR Poll
9/08/2008	MT	Leans GOP	Likely GOP	RR Poll
8/22/2008	TN	Likely GOP	Safe GOP	RR Mrkts
8/22/2008	ME	Safe Dem	Likely Dem	Natl Trends
8/22/2008	LA	Likely GOP	Safe GOP	RR Poll
8/22/2008	CT	Safe Dem	Likely Dem	Natl Trends
8/22/2008	SD	Leans GOP	Likely GOP	RR Mrkts & Natl Trends
8/22/2008	OR	Likely Dem	Leans Dem	"538" & Natl Trends
8/22/2008	CO	Leans Dem	Toss-Up	RR Poll
8/22/2008	WI	Likely Dem	Leans Dem	RR Poll
8/22/2008	NC	Leans GOP	Likely GOP	RR Poll & RR Mrkts
8/22/2008	OH	Toss-Up	Leans GOP	RR Poll
7/22/2008	OH	Leans Dem	Toss-Up	RR Poll
7/16/2008	KS	Likely GOP	Safe GOP	RR Poll
7/14/2008	SD	Likely GOP	Leans GOP	RR Poll
7/11/2008	WA	Safe Dem	Likely Dem	RR Poll
7/10/2008	WI	Leans Dem	Likely Dem	RR Poll
7/10/2008	ND	Likely GOP	Leans GOP	RR Poll
7/03/2008	MT	Likely GOP	Leans GOP	RR Poll
7/02/2008	CT	Likely Dem	Safe Dem	RR Poll
6/30/2008	MA	Likely Dem	Safe Dem	RR Poll
6/30/2008	CO	Toss-Up	Leans Dem	RR Mrkts & "538"
6/30/2008	VA	Leans GOP	Toss-Up	RR Mrkts & "538"
6/25/2008	CA	Likely Dem	Safe Dem	RR Poll
6/20/2008	CO	Leans Dem	Toss-Up	RR Poll
6/20/2008	OH	Toss-Up	Leans Dem	RR Mrkts & "538"
6/19/2008	CO	Toss-Up	Leans Dem	Chg in "538" Avg.
6/19/2008	NH	Toss-Up	Leans Dem	Chg in "538" Avg.
6/19/2008	ME	Likely Dem	Safe Dem	Chg in "538" Avg.
6/19/2008	NJ	Leans Dem	Likely Dem	Chg in "538" Avg.
6/19/2008	TN	Safe GOP	Likely GOP	Chg in "538" Avg.
6/16/2008	KS	Safe GOP	Likely GOP	RR Poll
6/15/2008	AR	Safe GOP	Likely GOP	RR Poll
6/13/2008	NC	Likely GOP	Leans GOP	RR Poll

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Summary
Republicans	174
Democrats	217
Toss-Ups & Leaners	147

Rasmussen Reports - Electoral College Balance of Power Breakdown
Safe Republican	65
Likely Republican	109
Leans Republican	11
Toss-Up	89
Leans Democrat	47
Likely Democrat	71
Safe Democrat	146

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