Mike Huckabee got the headlines with his victory in Iowa last night, but John McCain may end up as the biggest winner of all. On the morning after the caucuses, McCain emerged as a heavy favorite to win in New Hampshire five days from now, a slight favorite to win in Michigan a week later, and a slight favorite to win the Republican nomination.
Mike Huckabee got the headlines with his victory in Iowa last night, but John McCain may end up as the biggest winner of all. On the morning after the caucuses, McCain emerged as a heavy favorite to win in New Hampshire five days from now, a slight favorite to win in Michigan a week later, and a slight favorite to win the Republican nomination.
But, the Arizona Senator was not the only winner—both Mike Huckabee and Fred Thompson did what they had to do.
That puts the pressure on Mitt Romney. While his loss in Iowa was no doubt disappointing, it was not necessarily devastating. New Hampshire has been the must-win state all along for the former Massachusetts Governor. However, if he does not emerge with a victory on his home turf, Romney’s campaign may effectively come to an end.
What happened to Romney in Iowa was pretty straightforward. Huckabee’s success showed that the ability to generate enthusiasm matters more than money in the Iowa caucuses. The former Baptist preacher hit a message that resonated with a sizable segment of the GOP base and was carried to victory by an informal network of Evangelical leaders who turned out plenty of support for Mike Huckabee. Whether that network would actually deliver was the key question in the final Rasmussen Reports preview of the race.
Romney’s team was able to build a solid, professional, organization but their candidate didn’t generate the same type of enthusiasm.
However, things will be much different in New Hampshire. Rasmussen Reports polling shows that only about half as many voters in New Hampshire consider a candidate’s faith important in the voting decision. Also, of course, a Primary will bring out far more people than a caucus. But, for Mitt Romney, the biggest change will be that he is facing a different challenger. It is John McCain who shares the lead with Romney in New Hampshire.
Heading into the New Year, McCain was the only candidate in either party to be viewed favorably by a majority of voters.
Looking back on the Iowa campaign, Mike Huckabee first demonstrated his appeal with a surprising second place finish in the Ames straw poll. Shortly thereafter, Rasmussen Reports showed Huckabee moving into a virtual tie for second place with Fred Thompson. In early December, Rasmussen Reports became the first poll to show Huckabee ahead of Romney. In the final days of the campaign, Rasmussen Markets data projected that Huckabee would hang on to win.
Data from Rasmussen Markets now shows that John McCain has a John McCain to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008% chance of winning the Republican nomination, Giuliani Rudy Giuliani to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008%, Mike Huckabee Mike Huckabee to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008%, Mitt Romney Mitt Romney to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008%, and Fred Thompson Fred Thompson to be the Republican Presidential Nominee in 2008%.
These numbers reflect results from a prediction market, not a poll. RasmussenMarkets.com is a “futures market” that harnesses competitive passions to becomes a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the markets correctly projected both Obama and Huckabee as the winners in Iowa.
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