Political Commentary

Most Recent Releases

March 13, 2025Three Things That Usually Happen in Midterms By Kyle Kondik
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— There are at least three fairly consistent things that we see in midterms compared to presidential elections.
— The turnout of eligible voters in midterms is consistently lower than the turnout in the most recent presidential election.
— Midterm electorates are typically older, whiter, and more educated than presidential electorates.
— The non-presidential party usually wins a higher share of the two-party House vote in the midterm than that party did in the preceding presidential election.

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                            March 12, 2025Tax the Past? By John Stossel
        Climate activists have found a new way to force us to pay more for energy.

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                            March 11, 2025Want to Soak the Rich? Tax University Endowments. By Stephen Moore
                  Republicans are searching for ways to "pay for" their tax cuts. Democrats want the rich to pay more tax. Here's a solution that should make everyone happy.
                  House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Jason Smith is suggesting a tax on the $840 billion college endowments. These endowments will soon eclipse $1 trillion in size -- more money than the entire GDP of many countries.

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                            March 11, 2025Can Donald Trump Win a Trade War? By Daniel McCarthy
President Donald Trump knows better than to treat the "honeymoon" a president gets in his first months of office as a time to relax. He's fighting as hard now as he did at the height of last year's campaign.

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                            March 7, 2025A Formidable President Storms Ahead By Michael Barone
Some thoughts spring to mind after President Donald Trump's 100-minute address to Congress.
March 6, 2025Lessons from History: House Incumbents from the Non-Presidential Party Rarely Lose Reelection in Midterms By Kyle Kondik
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— The non-presidential party often picks up House seats in midterms, and as a part of it, that party’s incumbents rarely lose in midterms.
— Over 13 general election midterms held during the last half-century, just an average of 3 non-presidential party House members have lost per midterm.
— Redistricting as well as special election winners losing their subsequent general election inflate that total. Otherwise, a variety of other factors—including scandal, strong challengers, political circumstances, and more—contributed to these relatively rare losses.

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                            March 5, 2025What Exactly Does ‘I Support Ukraine’ Mean? By Brian C. Joondeph
Since the irritable, sweatshirt-clad Ukrainian president met with President Donald Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance in the Oval Office last Friday, social media has been filled with profile pictures proclaiming, “I stand with Ukraine” and “Slava Ukraini.“

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                            March 5, 2025The Death of Europe By John Stossel
America needs more rules to protect workers, say some from both parties.

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                            March 4, 2025Europe's Decline Was a Choice By Daniel McCarthy
Donald Tusk, the prime minister of Poland, might not shock Europe's leaders the way Donald Trump does, but he too has a tough message for them.

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                            March 4, 2025For Whom the Zelle Tolls By Stephen Moore
One of the more baffling lawsuits in the final days of the Biden administration was the complaint against Zelle, the popular money transfer network. The Consumer Finance Protection Bureau argued that, despite Zelle's service being free, the network's users were being ripped off.

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                            February 28, 2025Getting to Denmark By Michael Barone
Sooner or later, The New York Times catches on to the news. In the case of immigration policy, the news it has caught up with is that mass immigration, legal and illegal, from less-developed countries is politically toxic.
February 27, 2025House District Loyalty in the Trump Era By J. Miles Coleman
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— In presidential elections since 2016, only 28 of the 435 current House districts have backed nominees of different parties.
— In next year’s House elections, districts that have been Electoral College bellwethers since 2016 could play a large role in determining whether Democrats can recapture the majority.
— Still, Republicans have some potential offensive targets in districts that have been national popular vote bellwethers.
— While House Democrats find themselves in a similar overall situation now as they did in 2017, the general contours of the House battlefield are different.

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                            February 26, 2025Does Everyone Hate What Trump is Doing? Far from It By Brian C. Joondeph
On social media, one might get the impression that Americans who voted for President Donald Trump now feel buyer’s remorse.

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                            February 26, 2025Trump Is Right -- Fire Bad Federal Employees and Reward Good Ones By Stephen Moore
   All in Washington are acting like their hair is on fire in response to the Department of Government Efficiency requirement that federal employees list what they accomplished last week. Many are acting like they can't think of anything, like they may need to "phone a friend" to get an answer.

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                            February 26, 2025Dumb Things Socialists Promise By John Stossel
Socialism is popular!

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                            February 25, 2025How Trump Makes Europe Stronger By Daniel McCarthy
   President Donald Trump has a plan to save Europe, and the results of Sunday's election in Germany show it's working.

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                            February 21, 2025The Policies of European Elites End in Tears By Michael Barone
If you follow these things closely, you may have seen a clip of the chairman of the Munich Security Conference breaking down in tears, unable to speak any further while reflecting on Vice President JD Vance's speech there. This breakdown is remarkable because the chairman, Christoph Heusgen, is not a minor apparatchik but a sophisticated and knowledgeable official who was former German Chancellor Angela Merkel's national security adviser from 2005 to 2017.
February 20, 2025Trump’s Approval: Still Positive, but Overperformance with Democratic-Leaning Groups May Be Hard to Maintain By Kyle Kondik
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— As his second term enters its second month, Donald Trump retains a positive approval rating in polling averages.
— However, his numbers in polling averages are weaker now than a few weeks ago, driven more by an increase in disapproval than a decline in approval.
— Compared to his 2024 performance with certain demographic groups based on the national exit poll, Trump is overperforming the most with some typically Democratic constituencies.

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                            February 19, 2025What's On Your Plate? By John Stossel
   I tried meat grown in a lab.

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                            February 18, 2025The Civil Service's Partisanship Problem By Daniel McCarthy
   Here's a dirty secret about the federal government many Americans are just learning: