51% Think Deal To Avoid ‘Fiscal Cliff’ Likely by January 1

President Obama will hold a press conference today to push his deficit-cutting plan as lawmakers in Washington battle over ways to prevent the massive tax hikes and spending cuts scheduled for January 1.  Given the partisan bickering, a bare majority of voters thinks a deal to avoid going over the so-called “fiscal cliff” is likely to emerge before then.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 51% of Likely U.S. Voters now believe it is likely that Congress and the president will agree on a plan to stop the tax increases and spending cuts before the first of the year. Forty-two percent (42%) think a deal is unlikely to emerge. These findings include only 15% who feel a deal is Very Likely and just as many (14%) who say it’s Not At All Likely. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on November 12-13, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Rasmussen Employment Index Falls Back to January Level

The Rasmussen Employment Index slipped another three points in April, bringing the index down to the level measured at the start of 2012. At 80.7, the index is still above findings throughout 2011 and matches the level measured in January. In February, the index hit a three-year high of 87.7. April’s index is up six points from a year ago and seven points from two years ago.

The survey of 8,891 working Americans was conducted in April 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC . See methodology.

6% Rate Congress’ Job Performance As Good or Excellent

Positive ratings for Congress are back in the single digits where they have been for the past year.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that six percent (6%) of Likely U.S. Voters now rate Congress’ performance as good or excellent.  Sixty-eight percent (68%) think Congress is doing a poor job.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 29-30, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending April 6, 2012

The Easter weekend comes as a welcome pause for many after a week of high-profile political debate over the role of the U.S. Supreme Court and the release of employment numbers that remind us the economy’s still in shaky condition.

After reaching a three-year high in February, the Rasmussen Employment Index slipped four points in March. Generally speaking, a decrease in the index suggests the upcoming government reports on job creation will be weaker than the prior month’s, and that was again the case this month. The number of Americans who know someone who’s given up looking for a job out of frustration is up five points from a month ago to 48%.

The Rasmussen Consumer and Investor Indexes ended the week with slight increases, and both are running 10 or more points ahead of where they were in January. However, it remains to be seen how the jobs’ report affects confidence in the coming days.

Mississippi Primary: Romney 35%, Santorum 27%, Gingrich 27%, Paul 6%

Rasmussen Reports’ first Republican primary survey in Mississippi shows former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney leading his closest competitors by eight points. A new statewide telephone survey of Likely GOP Primary Voters in the Magnolia State shows Romney with 35% of the vote, while former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich each draw support from 27%. Texas Congressman Ron Paul runs last with six percent (6%). One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Mississippi survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on March 8, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Arizona GOP Primary: Romney 48%, Gingrich 24%, Santorum 13%, Paul 6%

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has a big lead over his rivals in the first Rasmussen Reports survey of the Republican primary race in Arizona. The state's Republicans vote on February 28. A new telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Arizona shows Romney with 48% support, while former House Speaker Newt Gingrich comes in a distant second with 24%. Thirteen percent (13%) prefer former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, and six percent (6%) support Texas Congressman Ron Paul. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Arizona survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on February 1, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending January 28, 2012

President Obama on Tuesday night delivered his final State of the Union speech before Election Day, and the public seems receptive to at least two of his major economic initiatives. At the same time, the race between the men who want his job has seesawed, with the latest numbers from Florida’s upcoming primary suggesting Newt Gingrich’s surge may have crested.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of Likely U.S. Voters agree with the president’s proposal that wealthy Americans pay at least 30% of their income in federal taxes. But 49% also think federal, state and local governments combined shouldn’t take more than 30% of anyone’s income in taxes. These findings suggest that while voters feel generally that the wealthy aren’t paying their fair share, they remain more interested in fairness than in being punitive.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending January 20, 2012

And then there were four. The South Carolina Primary claimed two of the Republican presidential hopefuls this past week – Jon Huntsman and Rick Perry – before a single vote was cast. Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are now running nearly even, but with all the charges in the air, who knows if that will last until the votes are counted this evening?

Gingrich surged ahead of Romney 33% to 31% in the final Rasmussen Reports survey of the South Carolina Republican Primary race taken Wednesday evening. Two days earlier, before a strong debate showing by Gingrich and Sarah Palin’s endorsement of the former House speaker, it was Romney by 14 percentage points. 

Texas Congressman Ron Paul ran third on Wednesday with 15% of the vote, followed by former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum at 11%. Paul's support held steady while Santorum's support dropped five points since Monday.  At the beginning of the month, after Santorum’s strong showing in the Iowa caucuses, he ran second to Romney with 24%. Perry pulled two percent (2%) support Wednesday evening but has since dropped out of the race.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending January 14, 2012

Next Saturday’s South Carolina Republican Primary is expected to thin the pack of presidential hopefuls, but for now Mitt Romney, winner of both the Iowa caucuses and last Tuesday’s New Hampshire Primary, is the man to beat. New numbers out of South Carolina and Florida suggest that may be easier said than done.

Romney still holds first place in the South Carolina Primary field, while his opponents jockey for second. The former Massachusetts governor earns 28% support, virtually unchanged from a week ago, but now former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is in second place with 21% of the vote.  Support for former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum who was in second a week ago has fallen back to 16%, putting him dead even with Texas Congressman Ron Paul who also earns 16%.

Texas Governor Rick Perry, whose continued candidacy likely depends on the South Carolina vote, now captures six percent (6%) support, while former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman runs last with five percent (5%).

Of course, much can change in the closing days before the South Carolina primary, with just 52% who say they are certain of their vote at this time. In Iowa, a late surge by Santorum nearly swept him to victory. In New Hampshire, Paul and Huntsman made gains in the final days of the campaign. This suggests whoever is perceived as the most effective tactical alternative to Romney could see a last-minute surge in South Carolina as well.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending January 6, 2012

Like a weathered old gunslinger who has to face down every newcomer who thinks he’s faster on the draw, Mitt Romney has yet another challenger stepping out of the pack. First it was Michele Bachmann followed by Rick Perry; then it was Herman Cain. Next came Newt Gingrich, and now it’s Rick Santorum.

After his photo finish with Romney in last Tuesday’s Iowa caucuses, Santorum is now in second place among Republican voters in the race for the party’s 2012 presidential nomination.  Romney’s back in first place with support from 29%, followed by Santorum with 21%. Gingrich, who led in late November with 38% of the vote, now runs third with 16%. Texas Congressman Ron Paul, the third place finisher in Iowa, picks up 12% of the vote, up from eight percent (8%) in the previous survey.

In the short term, Romney doesn’t appear to have any worries. Next up is the first-in the-nation New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, and the former Massachusetts governor is pulling far ahead.  His nearest rival now trails him by more than 20 points.

The night before the primary, Scott Rasmussen will host a political talk show, “What New Hampshire Thinks with Scott Rasmussen,” in partnership with WBIN-TV, based in Derry, N.H.  The 9 pm Eastern program on Monday will include new Rasmussen Reports numbers on the New Hampshire primary race. Segments from the program will be released Tuesday on the Rasmussen Reports website.

6% of GOP Voters Ready to Vote Third Party If Their Favorite Isn’t The Nominee

Texas Congressman Ron Paul at a debate Saturday night in New Hampshire refused to rule out a third party run for the presidency if he fails to win the Republican nomination. But there’s minimal support for a third party candidate among Republican voters even if their favorite candidate is not the nominee.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that six percent (6%) of Likely Republican Primary voters nationwide say they would vote for a third party candidate if the candidate they’re backing for the GOP nomination comes up short. Slightly more (8%) say they would vote for President Obama if that was the case. But 78% of these GOP voters plan to vote for the Republican candidate no matter what. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on January 4, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

WBIN to Partner with Rasmussen Reports for Political Roundtable on Eve of New Hampshire Primary

WBIN will partner with nationally known pollster and political analyst Scott Rasmussen for a political talk show on the eve of the New Hampshire Presidential Primary:  “What New Hampshire Thinks with Scott Rasmussen.”  WBIN will also announce the results of a Rasmussen Reports survey conducted in partnership with WBIN during the broadcast.

6% Say Congress Doing Good or Excellent Job, 68% Say Poor

Ratings for Congress now match the lowest levels ever recorded and a solid plurality continue to believe that most Members of Congress are corrupt.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just six percent (6%) of Likely U.S. Voters rate the job Congress is doing as good or excellent.  Sixty-eight percent (68%) view Congress’ job performance as poor.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

From January 2007 through December 2010, with Democrats in control of both the House and Senate, Congress earned good or excellent marks ranging from nine percent (9%) to 26%, although generally their rankings were in the low teens for most of this period. 

WHAT AMERICA THINKS with Scott Rasmussen

Recognizing the heightened interest in this upcoming presidential election year as well as the public’s curiosity in opinion polling results, Telco Productions, Inc. is launching the half-hour weekly show, What America Thinks with Scott Rasmussen. The show is scheduled for a fall, 2012 debut. Affiliate stations will also receive a daily one-minute vignette produced specifically for local newscasts and featuring a new Rasmussen poll.

Just 6% Think Most Politicians Keep Their Campaign Promises

Voters remain overwhelmingly convinced that most politicians won’t keep their campaign promises, but they’re a little less convinced that their elected officials deliberately lie.

New Low: 6% Think Congress Is Doing A Good or Excellent Job

Voter approval of the job Congress is doing has fallen to a new low - for the second month in a row.

Just six percent (6%) of Likely U.S. Voters now rate Congress' performance as good or excellent, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. Last month, Congressional approval ratings fell to what was then a record low with eight percent (8%) who rated its performance good or excellent.

Partisan Trends: 35.6% Are Republicans, 34.0% Democrats, 30.4% Unaffiliated

In May, the number of Republicans in the country increased to its highest level so far this year.

Discover® U.S. Spending Monitor (SM) Consumer Confidence Falls 2.6 Points in March

Consumers' confidence sharply rebounded in January, fueled by a surge in the number of middle-income consumers who see improvement in the U.S. economy and in their personal finances are improving, according to the Discover U.S. Spending Monitor.

Discover (R) U.S. Spending Monitor (SM) Consumer Confidence Jumps 5.6 Points in January to Three-Year High

Consumers' confidence sharply rebounded in January, fueled by a surge in the number of middle-income consumers who see improvement in the U.S. economy and in their personal finances are improving, according to the Discover U.S. Spending Monitor.

Obama’s Full-Month Rating Improves in January

When tracking President Obama’s job approval on a daily basis, people sometimes get so caught up in the day-to-day fluctuations that they miss the bigger picture. To look at the longer-term trends, Rasmussen Reports compiles the numbers on a full-month basis, and the results can be seen in the graphics below.