With the Iowa caucuses only five days away, we at the Crystal Ball wanted to suggest some possible electoral scenarios that could play out next Tuesday and beyond. Because we love history, and because the past is often prologue, each scenario has some historical precedent:
Twenty percent (20%) of Likely U.S. Voters now say the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken the short holiday week ending Thursday, December 22.
The latest finding is down two points from last week’s five-month high of 22%.
The U.S. Supreme Court recently announced it will review the constitutionality of the national health care law and Arizona's law cracking down on illegal immigration, although rulings on the high-profile cases are months away. The decisions to review these laws have done little to change voter opinions of the high court.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Voters shows that 32% rate the U.S. Supreme Court as good or excellent, but that includes only five percent (5%) who give the high court an excellent grade. Twenty-one percent (21%) give the Supreme Court a poor rating. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
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The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on December 26, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points ith a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Most voters continue to favor the building of an oil pipeline from Canada to Texas that congressional Republicans are prodding President Obama to approve in legislation passed last week. Republicans see the pipeline as a job creator, while Democrats view it as an environmental risk.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 53% of Likely U.S. Voters now at least somewhat favor building the Keystone XL pipeline. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on December 26, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Opinions about President Obama are divided sharply along lines of faith and religious participation.
New Rasmussen Reports national telephone surveying of Likely U.S. Voters shows that the president earns a job approval rating of 58% among those who rarely or never attend church or religious services. However, among those who attend services every week or nearly every week, just 38% offer their approval. Among those who attend more than one service a week, approval is even lower at 31%.
The survey of 6,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted from December 12-22, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 1 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
President Obama remains in a near tie with a generic Republican candidate in a hypothetical Election 2012 matchup.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey for the short holiday week ending Thursday, December 22, finds that 45% of Likely U.S. Voters would support the generic Republican candidate if the presidential election were held today, while 44% would vote for Obama. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted December 19-22, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
After three straight weeks of decline, support for former House Speaker Newt Gingrich remains unchanged, though he still trails President Obama by 10 points in a hypothetical 2012 matchup. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Voters finds Obama earning 47% of the vote to Gingrich’s 37%. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on December 26, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Most voters agree that extending a 2% cut in the Social Security payroll tax for all of 2012 will be beneficial for the economy but won’t significantly impact their financial plans for the year. Congress signed off on a two-month extension of the tax cut last week but are hoping to extend it for all of 2012 when they reconvene after the holiday.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 60% of Likely U.S. Voters believe that if the payroll tax cut is extended for the full year of 2012, it will help the economy at least a little. That includes 22% who think it will help the economy a lot. Only 10% feel extending the tax cut will hurt the economy, with just four percent (4%) who think it will hurt a lot. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on December 26, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
This was the Year of the Middle Class -- as in, its falling incomes, loss of job security and anger. The global economic forces fueling the decline, such as foreign competition and computers, have been well reported. But what about cultural factors? Is the middle class going down partly because it stopped acting middle class?
Political spats and elections come and go, but one thing most voters still agree on is that government is not the solution to their problems. Not surprisingly, the Political Class disagrees.
Ronald Reagan said it in his first inaugural address in January 1981: “Government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem,” and a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 60% of Likely U.S. Voters agree with the iconic president. Only 29% disagree with Reagan’s assessment, while 11% are undecided.
For the third straight week, Republicans hold a three-point edge over Democrats on the Generic Congressional Ballot.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey for the short holiday week ending Thursday, December 22, finds that 43% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 40% would choose the Democrat instead.
Most homeowners are confident they know what their home is worth, and more of them than ever say it's worth less now than when they bought it.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of homeowners shows that 52% believe their home is worth more than what they paid when they purchased it.
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The survey of 690 U.S. Homeowners was conducted on December 19-20, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
A growing number of voters want the government to do more in response to the ailing economy. What they’re looking for, however, is for government to shrink itself rather than expand its presence in the economy.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 42% of Likely U.S. Voters worry more that the federal government will do too much rather than not enough in reacting to the nation’s economic problems.
The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on December 22, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
The world usually turns out to work differently from what American presidents expected when they were campaigning.
Franklin Roosevelt campaigned on domestic issues in 1932 and ran a more isolationist foreign policy for his first years in office than any of the Republican presidents elected in the 1920s. But he became aware of the threat that Adolf Hitler posed earlier than most, and changed course accordingly.
Most voters still want to repeal the national health care law, even though they tend to believe the law won’t force them to change their own health insurance coverage.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 55% of Likely U.S. Voters at least somewhat favor repeal of the health care law passed by Congress in March 2010, while 35% at least somewhat oppose repeal. The intensity remains on the side of the law’s opponents since these findings include 42% who Strongly Favor repeal versus 26% who are Strongly Opposed. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on December 10-11, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
For most adults, Christmas continues to be America's most important holiday.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 67% of American Adults consider Christmas one of the nation’s most important holidays, showing little change from last year and consistent with surveys stretching back to December 2006. Only six percent (6%) see Christmas as one of the least important holidays, while 24% rate it somewhere in between.
(Want a free daily e-mail update ? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The survey of 1,000 Adults was conducted on December 21-22, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
The vast majority of Americans celebrate tomorrow as Christmas, and most of those folks recognize the day as a celebration of the birth of Jesus Christ. It’s a time to pause momentarily even as the news hurtles on in places as remote as North Korea and as near as Iowa where the race for the presidency gathers steam.
For a sizable number of adults, the last couple days have been panic time. As of Friday morning, 38% hadn’t finished their holiday shopping, and 18% hadn’t even started yet. Still, there’d been a lot of shopping going since Monday when 57% hadn’t finished and 26% had yet to start.
More toys may have been on the shopping list, too. Just 41% of American Adults are even somewhat concerned about the safety of most toys being sold this holiday season, down from 51% a year ago.
The number of adults who expect to travel away from home during the holiday season has slowly increased in recent years, but half still say the current economy makes them less likely to do so.
Most adults who will be celebrating Christmas tomorrow will do so as a religious holiday, and an overwhelming majority believes in the divinity of Jesus Christ.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of American Adults shows that 90% will be celebrating Christmas in their family. Of those adults, 74% will be celebrating Christmas as a religious holiday while 22% will be observing it as a secular one. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The survey of 1,000 Adults was conducted on December 17-18, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, the frontrunner in Iowa and New Hampshire, now trails President Obama in a hypothetical Election 2012 matchup.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Voters finds Obama earning 44% support to Romney’s 41%. Seven percent (7%) prefer some other candidate, while eight percent (8%) are not sure.
Voters are not optimistic about the change in leadership in communist North Korea, and many are concerned that it will lead to war between North Korea and South Korea. Voters doubt that the change in leadership will produce major changes in North Korea. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 14% of Likely Voters think it is even somewhat likely that North Korea will become a free, democratic and peaceful nation over the next few years.
The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on December 20-21, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
