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February 6, 2012

Box-checking Obama in a Liberal Cocoon By Michael Barone

It's unusual when a reporter sympathetic to a politician writes a story that makes his subject look bad. But Ryan Lizza of The New Yorker has now done this twice.

The first time was in an article last April on Obama's foreign policy in which he quoted a "top aide" (National Security Adviser Tom Donilon? It sounds like him) saying that the president was "leading from behind" on Libya. Not what most Americans expect their presidents to do.

Now, in an article based on leaked White House memos marked up by Obama, Lizza has done it again.

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February 6, 2012

54% Favor Repeal of Health Care Law, 43% Say It Will Be Bad For U.S.

While a majority of U.S. voters continues to favor repeal of the national health care law, the number who believes it will be good for the country is at an all-time high. 

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 54% of Likely Voters at least somewhat favor repeal of the health care law, while 41% oppose repeal.  These figures include 39% who Strongly Favor repeal and 27% who Strongly Oppose it.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 4-5, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

February 6, 2012

In Arizona, Obama Approval at 41%

Many Democrats have high hopes for the Southwest in Election 2012 and some even think that President Obama even has a decent shot to move Arizona from Republican to Democrat in the Electoral College column this November. However, the president may have an uphill fight to achieve that goal as most voters in the Grand Canyon State disapprove of the way he’s done his job.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone poll found that just 41% of Likely Voters in Arizona approve of the way President Obama has performed his role. Fifty-six percent (56%) disapprove. Those figures are significantly lower than the president’s national ratings. They include 28% who Strongly Approve and 48% who Strongly Disapprove. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This Arizona survey of 1,230 Likely Voters was conducted on February 1, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

February 5, 2012

Game Day: 63% Will Watch Super Bowl, Most Will Be At Home

It’s finally here: the much-anticipated Super Bowl rematch between the New York Giants and New England Patriots, and most Americans will be watching.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of American Adults shows that 63% plan on watching the Super Bowl XLVI today, while 31% are not. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,807 Adults Who Will Watch the Super Bowl was conducted on January 30, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

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February 4, 2012

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls For The Week Ending February 4, 2012

Mitt Romney’s victory in Florida put him back on top as the clear frontrunner in the race for the GOP nomination. Rasmussen Reports and others had accurately projected Romney’s victory in advance but the fact that he got more votes than Gingrich and Santorum combined still caught many observers off guard.

Romney is expected to win big in Nevada today and has leads in the next two primary states—Michigan and Arizona. A commentary by Larry Sabato and his colleagues, however, suggests, that the race for the Republican nomination is unlikely to end any time soon. Michael Barone adds that Romney Faces Tough Opponents in a Long War.

Rasmussen Reports has begun daily tracking of the possible Obama-Romney match-up and is updating numbers for other GOP candidates on a rotating basis.

February 4, 2012

Viewers Evenly Divided On Super Bowl XLVI Winner

While Super Bowl viewers think the New England Patriots are better than the New York Giants in everything but defense, a slight plurality believe the Giants will win.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 44% of Super Bowl Viewers think the Giants will beat the Patriots in Sunday’s championship game.  Forty percent (40%), however, think the Patriots will win Super Bowl XLVI.  Another 15% are not sure.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 817 Super Bowl Viewers was conducted on January 30, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

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February 4, 2012

Video: Among Uncommitted Voters, Obama Job Approval at 20%

Scott Rasmussen analyzes how those voters who have not yet chosen a candidate to vote for could be the key to the upcoming election.  He looks at how these voters rate the job performance of the President.

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February 4, 2012

Unemployment and the Presidential Race By Geoffrey Skelley

Back in September, the Crystal Ball examined the possible electoral impact of state-by-state unemployment figures because, after all, presidents are elected in 51 individual battles (50 states plus Washington, D.C.)

February 3, 2012

Super Bowl Viewers Don’t Think Madonna’s Good Choice For Halftime Show

Most Americans who plan on watching the Super Bowl this Sunday say they’ll watch the halftime show, but they aren’t thrilled about the performer.  A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that only 29% of Adults Who Will Watch the Super Bowl think Madonna is a good choice for the game’s half time show. Fifty-seven percent disagree, while 14% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 817 Adults Who Will Watch the Super Bowl was conducted on January 30, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

February 3, 2012

77% Know Someone Out of Work and Looking For A Job

The unemployment rate dipped slightly to 8.3 percent in January, but most Americans continue to know someone who is out of work and searching for a job.   One-in-four adults believes the unemployment rate will be higher a year from today. 

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 77% of American Adults say they know someone who is out of work and looking for a job.  That finding is down slightly from December’s all-time high of 82%, but is generally in-line with findings since early March 2010. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Adults was conducted on February 1-2, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

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February 3, 2012

38% Say Next President Very Likely To Be Republican, 5% Say Not At All Likely

More voters think President Obama is governing in a partisan fashion than have felt that way in over a year of regular surveying. Voters are more confident, too, that the next president is likely to be a Republican than at any time in Obama's presidency to date.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 33% of Likely U.S. Voters now think the president is governing in a bipartisan fashion. Fifty-two percent (52%) say he is acting like a partisan Democrat, up four points from November and the highest finding since early December 2010. Sixteen percent (16%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This national survey of 1,000 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on January 31-February 1, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

February 3, 2012

50% Say Candidate Can Win Without Criticizing Opponent

Voters have slightly more faith in the power of positive campaigning than they did four years ago during the last presidential campaign cycle.

Fifty percent (50%) of Likely U.S. Voters believe it is possible for a candidate to win an election without criticizing his or her opponent. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 37% think it’s not possible to win that way, and 13% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on January 31-February 1, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

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February 3, 2012

How Long Is Romney's Road To The Nomination? By Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley

The moon over Miami was a blue moon for Newt, a bad moon rising for Gingrich. This moon’s shine was all for Mitt Romney, illuminating a moon river that seems set to eventually carry Romney to the Republican presidential nomination.

February 3, 2012

Video: Despite Talk of Spending Cuts, CBO Projects Fed Spending to Increase Every Year

Federal spending is predicted to go up every year in the next decade despite talks of spending cuts.  Scott Rasmussen dissects the latest Congressional Budget Office's predictions in the video below.

February 3, 2012

Are the Trends Obama's Friend? By Scott Rasmussen

While much of the focus these days is on the fight for the Republican presidential nomination, there are some developing trends that are likely to have the man already in the White House smiling. Only 29 percent of voters nationwide believe the United States is currently heading in the right direction, while 64 percent believe the nation has gotten off on the wrong track. Those aren't great numbers for a president seeking re-election -- but that 29 percent is up from 24 percent a month ago and 16 percent the month before that.

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February 3, 2012

The High Cost of Romney's Scorching Victory By Joe Conason

Mitt Romney's convincing victory in the Florida primary erased his earlier defeats and perhaps any serious obstacle to his nomination. The question that still troubles party leaders, however, is the damage he will sustain before returning to Tampa in September for their convention.

February 2, 2012

69% Oppose Efforts to Increase Those on Food Stamps

A record 46.2 million Americans were on food stamps by last fall, but the Obama administration is still concerned that some segments of the population are missing out on government food assistance. However, most Americans oppose trying to get more people on food stamps.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of American Adults finds that just 11% favor new government efforts to encourage more people to receive food stamps.  Sixty-nine percent (69%) oppose such efforts, while another 21% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.  

The survey of 1,000 Adults nationwide was conducted on January 30-31, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

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February 2, 2012

Arizona GOP Primary: Romney 48%, Gingrich 24%, Santorum 13%, Paul 6%

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has a big lead over his rivals in the first Rasmussen Reports survey of the Republican primary race in Arizona. The state's Republicans vote on February 28. A new telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Arizona shows Romney with 48% support, while former House Speaker Newt Gingrich comes in a distant second with 24%. Thirteen percent (13%) prefer former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, and six percent (6%) support Texas Congressman Ron Paul. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This Arizona survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on February 1, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

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February 2, 2012

Michigan GOP Primary: Romney 38%, Gingrich 23%, Santorum 17%, Paul 14%

Mitt Romney, coming off his big win in the Florida Primary on Tuesday, is the clear front-runner in the first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the Republican presidential race in his home state of Michigan. Voters in this hard hit state see Romney as the much better choice to manage the economy. The Michigan Republican Primary is on February 28.

Romney earns 38% support from Likely Republican Primary Voters in Michigan, with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich a distant second with 23% of the vote. Seventeen percent (17%) prefer former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum, and nearly as many (14%) favor Texas Congressman Ron Paul. One percent (1%) like some other candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here).

This Michigan survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on February 1, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

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February 2, 2012

Obama Full-Month Approval Hits Highest Point Since June

When tracking President Obama’s job approval on a daily basis, people sometimes get so caught up in the day-to-day fluctuations that they miss the bigger picture. To look at the longer-term trends, Rasmussen Reports compiles the numbers on a full-month basis, and the results can be seen in the graphics below.

Overall, while the president's numbers improved only slightly in January, he now enjoys his highest monthly approval index since June of last year.

In January, 24% of voters Strongly Approved of the president’s job performance, up a point from the previous month.   The number who Strongly Disapproved of the job Obama is doing was at 39% in January, down one point from December.

His full-month Presidential Approval Index rating for January was -15, up two points from December and the president’s best showing since June.  However, the president started 2011 with a rating of -11 and enjoyed a positive index of 23 when he first assumed office in January 2009.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night. The monthly numbers in this article are based on approximately 15,000 interviews each month with likely voters. The margin of sampling error is less than +/- 1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.