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March 6, 2012

Nebraska Senate: Bruning (R) 55%, Kerrey (D) 33%

Democrats hoped to give themselves a shot at holding onto a U.S. Senate seat in Nebraska by talking retired Senator Bob Kerrey into running, but the first Rasmussen Reports survey of the race finds Kerrey trailing all three of his leading Republican opponents. A new telephone survey of Likely Nebraska Voters finds state Attorney General Jon Bruning earning 55% support to Kerrey's 33%. Four percent (4%) like another candidate in the race, and seven percent (7%) remain undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This Nebraska survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted March 5, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

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March 6, 2012

Rasmussen Employment Index Hits Highest Level Since 2008 Financial Crisis

The Rasmussen Employment Index, which measures workers’ perceptions of the labor market each month, jumped seven points in February to its highest level since September 2008. At 87.7, the index is up 11 points from three months ago and nine points from a year ago. The Employment Index is also nearly four points higher than the level measured in November 2010, which represented the peak of the post-bailout era. Worker confidence is less than half-a-point below the level measured just before the financial sector meltdown in late 2008.

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March 6, 2012

Obama, Romney Run Near Even When It Comes to Major Issues

It’s a neck-and-neck race between President Obama and Republican front-runner Mitt Romney when it comes to voter trust on several major issues including the economy.

Voters continue to  rate the economy well ahead of other issues in terms of importance to their vote in the upcoming election, and 45% of Likely U.S. Voters trust Romney more than the president when it comes to economic issues. But a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that nearly as many (44%) trust Obama more. Eleven percent (11%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted March 1-2, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

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March 6, 2012

What Limbaugh Is Really About By Froma Harrop

Too bad the Republican candidates had to comment on Rush Limbaugh's flaming attack on a female law student at Georgetown University. El Rushbo plays troubadour to the party's right wing from his home in its entertainment wing. The business of the entertainment wing is show business.  That means making money off talk shows, books and TV appearances -- and running the publicity machine at hysterical volume. It does not mean keeping the interests of the Republican Party foremost.

March 6, 2012

65% Now Expect Romney To Be The Republican Nominee

Voters are even more convinced that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney will be the Republican presidential nominee after his primary wins last week in Arizona and Michigan. Will Super Tuesday change that?

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 65% of Likely U.S. Voters believe Romney is likely to win the GOP nomination. That’s up from 54% a week earlier.  Just 14% expect Romney’s leading rival, former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum, to emerge as the party’s standard-bearer, down from 24% in the previous survey.

Only five percent (5%) think former House Speaker Newt Gingrich will be the Republican nominee, and four percent (4%) predict Texas Congressman Ron Paul will be the eventual winner. Three percent (3%) say some other candidate is likely to be nominated, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. These findings are little changed from those in late February. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 3-4, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

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March 5, 2012

Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 44%, Democrats 41%

Republicans hold a four-point lead over Democrats on the latest Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, Feb. 26. 

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 43% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 39% would choose the Democrat instead. Last week, the Republican led by just one point.

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from February 20-26, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

March 5, 2012

48% in Massachusetts Consider State's Health Care Reform A Success

More Massachusetts voters now think health care reform in the state has been successful, but just as many favor repeal of the national health care law passed into law two years ago.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Massachusetts Voters finds that 48% say health care reform in the Bay State has been a success. That's up from 26% in June 2009.  Twenty-eight percent (28%) think the reform effort has been a failure, down from 37% in the earlier survey. Almost as many (23%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Massachusetts was conducted on February 29, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

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March 5, 2012

Massachusetts: Obama 55%, Romney 38%

Mitt Romney trails President Obama in a head-to-head matchup in Massachusetts, and voters in the Bay State have mixed feelings about their former governor who now wants to sit in the White House.  

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Obama earning 55% support to Romney’s 38%.  Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, while three percent (3%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This Massachusetts survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted February 29, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

March 5, 2012

Georgia GOP Primary: Gingrich 37%, Romney 27%, Santorum 18%, Paul 10%

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is still comfortably ahead in the Republican race in his native state of Georgia with tomorrow’s Super Tuesday primary just hours away.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Georgia Republican Primary Voters, taken last night, shows Gingrich with 37% of the vote to former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney’s 27%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum remains in third place with 18% support, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul runs last with 10%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are still undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This Georgia survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on March 4, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

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March 5, 2012

53% Favor Repeal of Health Care Law

While Congress continues to battle over President Obama’s contraceptive mandate, most voters still favor repeal of the national health care law.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 53% of Likely U.S. Voters at least somewhat favor repeal of the health care law, including 42% who Strongly Favor repeal.  Forty-two percent (42%) oppose repeal, with 30% who are Strongly Opposed.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 3-4, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

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March 5, 2012

James Q Wilson: A Happy American Life By Michael Barone

Few social scientists, and even fewer political scientists, have done as much to improve American life as James Q. Wilson, who died last week at age 80.

His name is familiar to three decades of college students who studied the American government textbook he co-authored, though one wonders whether they would recall it without the distinctive middle initial.

March 5, 2012

Ohio GOP Primary: Santorum 32%, Romney 31%, Gingrich 13%, Paul 13%

Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney are tied in Ohio with the Super Tuesday primary vote just 24 hours away. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Ohio shows Santorum earning 32% support to Romney’s 31%. The survey was taken Sunday night. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Congressman Ron Paul run far behind, each with 13% of the vote. Three percent (3%) prefer another candidate, and six percent (6%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Ohio survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on March 4, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

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March 4, 2012

Economy Still Number One on Voters' Minds

The economy remains far and away the most important thing on voters' minds this election season on a list of 10 key issues regularly surveyed by Rasmussen Reports.

A new national telephone survey finds that 82% of Likely U.S. Voters see the economy as a Very Important issue in terms of how they will vote in the next congressional election. That's up two points from  December, but generally consistent with findings since August 2007. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Surveys of 1,000 Likely Voters each were conducted on February 22-23 and 26-27, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

March 4, 2012

Tennessee Primary: Santorum 34%, Romney 30%, Gingrich 18%, Paul 8%

Just two days before Super Tuesday, the Republican primary race in Tennessee has become a two-man competition between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum. The first Rasmussen Reports survey of Likely GOP Primary Voters in Tennessee shows Santorum attracting 34% of the vote, while Romney earns 30%. Polls from other firms have previously shown Santorum with a large lead in the state.

This Tennessee survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on March 3, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

March 3, 2012

13% Say U.S. Should Take Bigger Role Helping European Economy

More Americans than ever expect one of the financially troubled European countries to default on its debt in the near future, but few believe the United States should step up its efforts to help the situation. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of American Adults shows that 75% believe it is at least somewhat likely that that one of the economically troubled European countries like Greece, Ireland, Portugal or Spain will default on its debt in the next five years. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 American Adults nationwide was conducted on February 29 - March 1, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

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March 3, 2012

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls For The Week Ending March 3, 2012

Seven primaries, three caucuses. No wonder they call it Super Tuesday. Is it also Santorum’s last stand?

Three of the states are gimmes as far as Mitt Romney’s concerned – Massachusetts, Vermont and Virginia. Rick Santorum was miles ahead in Oklahoma less than two weeks ago. But back then he was also 18 points ahead in Ohio, probably the biggest prize of the day. Now the Buckeye State is a tossup - Santorum 33%, Mitt Romney 31%. 

Romney’s been surging since his wins this past Tuesday in the Arizona and Michigan primaries. The former Massachusetts governor now leads Santorum among Likely GOP Primary voters nationwide by a 40% to 24% margin.  This is Romney's biggest lead to date and the highest level of support any GOP candidate has earned in regular surveying of the race. Two weeks earlier, it was Santorum 39%, Romney 27%.

Rasmussen Reports will report new numbers out of Ohio on Monday to see if that surge is still evident.

March 2, 2012

25% Say U.S. Doesn't Spend Enough on Defense

Most voters recognize that the United States is the world leader in defense spending, but one-in-four still don’t think that’s enough.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 56% of Likely U.S. Voters correctly believe that the United States spends more on defense than any other nation. Only 15% disagree, but 29% are not sure. That's generally in line with findings since November 2010. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 24-25, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

March 2, 2012

72% Want Members of Congress Banned From Trading and Investing

Voters overwhelmingly believe congressmen leave Washington, D.C. wealthier than when they got there and want the law to do something about it. 

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds, in fact, that 79% of Likely U.S. Voters think members of Congress leave office wealthier than when they were first elected. Just five percent (5%) disagree and say they are not. Sixteen percent (16%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 28-29, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

March 2, 2012

Georgia Primary: Gingrich 38%, Romney 26%, Santorum 20%, Paul 7%

Favorite son Newt Gingrich now holds a double-digit lead over his closest rival in the Georgia Republican Primary race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Georgia shows Gingrich with 38% support to former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney’s 26%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum now runs third with 20% of the vote, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul trails with seven percent (7%).  Three percent (3%) prefer another candidate, and six percent (6%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Georgia survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on March 1, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

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March 2, 2012

Snowepocalypse Greatly Harms Republican Chances of Senate Takeover By The Crystal Ball Team

And just when we thought we weren’t going to have any big Snowe storms this year, the decision by…

Eh, enough with the Snowe puns.

Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) shockingly announced her retirement on Tuesday night, which greatly frustrates Republican efforts to win back the Senate. This was a race that Snowe almost certainly would have won: She and her moderate Republican colleague, Sen. Susan Collins, are institutions not only in the U.S. Senate, but also in the Pine Tree State. Despite grumbles to her left and right, Snowe would have been very difficult to defeat in a primary or general election.