Democrats' Nightmare Scenario for 2016 by Michael Barone
Last week I set out a 2016 nightmare scenario for Republicans -- not one that seems likely, but one that can be extrapolated from current polling.
Public Content
Most Recent Releases
June 3, 2014
June 3, 2014
Director of Polling
The polling industry is looking to decrease reliance on data gathering via landlines. Rasmussen Reports is seeking a hands-on, innovative thinker to lead our efforts in this direction. Innovative thinking about the future of polling, along with the quantitative and computational abilities to put your ideas into practice are definite must-haves. We aim to broaden our polling reach over the next years, to introduce a greater amount of data from a wide range of nontraditional polling sources, and to carefully calibrate and evaluate our efforts as we proceed.
June 3, 2014
Idaho Senate: Risch (R) 54%, Mitchell (D) 29%
Republican Senator Jim Risch has a nearly two-to-one lead over his Democratic challenger in his bid for reelection in Idaho.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Idaho Voters shows Risch with 54% of the vote to Democratic attorney Nels Mitchell’s 29%. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate in the race, while 11% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Idaho was conducted on May 28-29, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
June 2, 2014
Generic Congressional Ballot: Democrats 41%, Republicans 38%
Democrats lead Republicans by three points on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, June 1.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 41% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Democrat in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 38% would choose the Republican instead.
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from May 26-June 1, 2014. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
June 2, 2014
Obama’s Full-Month Approval Up Two Points in May
When tracking President Obama’s job approval on a daily basis, people sometimes get so caught up in the day-to-day fluctuations that they miss the bigger picture. To look at the longer-term trends, Rasmussen Reports compiles the numbers on a full-month basis, and the results can be seen in the graphics below.
The president’s monthly job approval rating climbed to 49% in May, up two points from April and matching his previous high for the year reached in February. His job approval held steady at 47% in March and April. Obama’s approval rating hit a two-year low of 45% in November during the troubled rollout period for the new national health care law. Through much of November and early December, his daily job approval ratings were at the lowest levels of his entire presidency. Since then, however, his approval ratings have returned to levels seen for much of his time in the White House.
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night. The monthly numbers in this article are based on approximately 15,000 interviews each month with likely voters. The margin of sampling error is less than +/- 1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
June 2, 2014
48% Support Keeping Some U.S. Troops in Afghanistan, 44% Oppose
President Obama announced last week plans to withdraw all but 9,800 U.S. troops from Afghanistan by the end of this year and fully withdraw troops by the end of 2016. Nearly half of voters support leaving some troops in Afghanistan through 2016, but most are not convinced America is any safer because of the U.S. mission there.
Forty-eight percent (48%) of Likely U.S. Voters believe some U.S. troops should remain in Afghanistan through 2016, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. Nearly as many (44%), however, think the United States should withdraw all troops by the end of this year. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on May 29-30, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
June 2, 2014
51% Oppose Obamacare Mandate That All Must Be Insured
Opposition to the new health care law’s requirement that every American have health insurance has risen to its highest level this year.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds 39% of Likely U.S. Voters continue to believe the government should require every American to buy or obtain health insurance. That’s down slightly from the first of the year but consistent with surveys for the past couple months. However, 51% now oppose this so-called individual mandate, up six points from late April and the highest level of opposition since December. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on May 31-June 1, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
June 1, 2014
Pennsylvania Governor: Wolf (D) 51%, Corbett (R) 31%
Republican Governor Tom Corbett trails his Democratic challenger Tom Wolf by 20 points in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at the Pennsylvania gubernatorial race.
A new statewide telephone survey of Likely Pennsylvania Voters shows Wolf with 51% of the vote to Corbett’s 31%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate in the race, but 14% are still undecided at this point. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Pennsylvania was conducted on May 27-28, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
May 31, 2014
What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending May 31
President Obama this week spoke of the diminished role of the military in his foreign policy and at week’s end dumped the former general in charge of veterans’ retirement benefits.
May 30, 2014
75% Still Think It Will Be Tough for Young People to Find Jobs This Summer
As the school year comes to a close, American continue to strongly believe it is important for kids to have a summer job but also think they'll have a tough time finding one.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 93% of American Adults feel it is at least somewhat important for young people to have jobs during the summer when school's out, including 66% who say it’s Very Important. Just five percent (5%) rate a summer job not very or Not At All Important. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The survey of 1,000 American Adults was conducted on May 26-27, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
May 30, 2014
Why Prosecuting Snowden Is Unfair -- Until NSA Answers for Misconduct By Joe Conason
What America learned from Edward Snowden's interview with "NBC News" anchor Brian Williams on Wednesday evening was much less than what we still need to know. Snowden described himself as a highly trained espionage agent, rather than a low-level hacker; he insisted his actions were patriotic, not treacherous; and said he yearns to return to the United States. He claimed to have warned his superiors about the surveillance excesses committed by the National Security Agency, and he doesn't believe a fair trial would be possible for him under the Espionage Act if he did return.
May 30, 2014
55% Have Read A Book or Poem by Maya Angelou
Poet Maya Angelou died this week at the age of 86, and she will be remembered fondly by most Americans, especially those familiar with her work.
Fifty-seven percent (57%) of American Adults have at least a somewhat favorable opinion of Angelou, also a performer and civil rights activist. Just 12% view her unfavorably, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. This includes 35% with a Very Favorable opinion and three percent (3%) with a Very Unfavorable one. One-in-three (31%) don’t know enough about her to offer an opinion. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The survey of 1,000 American Adults was conducted on May 28-29, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
May 30, 2014
Kentucky Senate: McConnell (R) 48%, Grimes (D) 41%
Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell now holds a seven-point lead over Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes in Kentucky’s U.S. Senate race following last week’s state party primaries.
McConnell earns 48% support to Grimes’ 41% in the latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Kentucky Voters. Five percent (5%) like some other candidate in the race, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Kentucky was conducted on May 28-29, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
May 30, 2014
Despite Thomas Piketty, Voters Reject Economic Redistribution by Michael Barone
The opinion pages, economic journals and liberal websites are atwitter (a-Twitter?) these days over French economist Thomas Piketty's "Capital in the Twenty-First Century." Left-wingers cite Piketty's statistics showing growing wealth inequality -- though some have been challenged by the Financial Times -- in support of Piketty's policy response, huge taxes on high incomes and accumulated wealth.
One suspects that many of his fans have another agenda in mind. They'd like to gull a majority of the 99 percent to vote for parties that would put their friends in control of an engorged state apparatus.
Michael Barone, senior political analyst at the Washington Examiner, (www.washingtonexaminer.com), where this article first appeared, is a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a Fox News Channel contributor and a co-author of The Almanac of American Politics. To find out more about Michael Barone, and read features by other Creators writers and cartoonists, visit the Creators Syndicate Web page at www.creators.com.
COPYRIGHT 2014 THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
DISTRIBUTED BY CREATORS.COM
May 30, 2014
Arkansas Governor: Hutchinson (R) 48%, Ross (D) 41%
In a gubernatorial race between two former U.S. congressmen, Republican Asa Hutchinson has pulled ahead of Democrat Mike Ross in Arkansas following last week’s party primaries.
The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Arkansas Voters shows Hutchinson with 48% of the vote to Ross’ 41%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate in the race, while six percent (6%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Arkansas was conducted on May 27-28, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
May 29, 2014
31% Owe More Money Now
More Americans say they owe more money this month, but most say their interest rates haven't changed.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 31% of American Adults owe more than they did a year ago. That's up three points from last month and ties the recent high in March. Another 31% say they owe less than they did a year ago, while slightly more (35%) say the amount they owe is about the same. (To see survey question wording, click here).
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The survey of 1,000 American Adults was conducted on May 22-23, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
May 29, 2014
60% Say U.S. Leaders Send Troops Into Danger Too Often
U.S. voters continue to believe the nation’s leaders are too eager to send American soldiers into action, with nearly half who say the United States is already too involved in the affairs of other nations.
Just 33% of Likely U.S. Voters think the current level of U.S. involvement around the globe is about right. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 48% believe the United States is too involved in the affairs of other countries, while 11% say America is not involved enough. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
May 29, 2014
The Housing Bust and the American Psyche By Froma Harrop
Real estate mania lives on at the HGTV cable channel, where house shoppers still holler for granite on their kitchen islands and his-and-her sinks in their en suite bathrooms. But in the non-TV reality of middle-class America, the bloom is definitely off the real estate rose.
May 29, 2014
58% Say It’s Possible To End U.S. Dependence on Foreign Oil
Voters are more optimistic than ever that the United States can completely end its dependence on oil imports, although most still think the country is not doing enough to develop its own resources.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 25% of Likely U.S. Voters think the United States does enough to develop its own gas and oil resources. Sixty-one percent (61%) disagree, but that’s down from 65% in September and is the lowest level of pessimism measured since 2011. Fourteen percent (14%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on May 25-26, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.
May 29, 2014
Barack Obama and Bill Clinton: Complementary Strengths By Rhodes Cook
The Democrats can use all the assets they can find as they approach a midterm election that grows increasingly challenging. The polls are daunting. The electoral map for both the Senate and House is unfavorable. And history is rarely kind to the president’s party in midterm voting.
But the Democrats have two significant assets in the form of Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, the president and former president who have thrown themselves into the 2014 campaign with gusto.
