Election 2004: Month-by-Month
Data from 269 days of Rasmussen Reports Tracking Polls provides a reminder of just how close the campaign has been all year... and for how long it has been so painfully close.
Politics
Most Recent Releases
November 1, 2004
October 31, 2004
New Jersey: Kerry 53% Bush 41%
The latest Rasmussen Reports New Jersey survey finds Senator Kerry with 53% of the vote while President Bush earns 41%. The Garden State appeared to be in play for a period of time following the Republican National Convention, but it now appears safely back in the Democrats' column. It will remain as a "Leans Kerry" for our Electoral College projection.
October 30, 2004
Electoral College Projections
Three days to go and the latest Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projection shows George W. Bush with 222 Electoral Votes and John Kerry with 186. There are now eleven states with 130 Electoral Votes in the Toss-Up category.
October 30, 2004
Michigan: Kerry 50% Bush 47%
In Michigan, the latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows Senator Kerry with 50% of the vote and President Bush with 47%. Four years ago, Al Gore won the state with a solid 51% to 46% margin of victory.
Kerry has been consistently ahead in our daily Michigan Tracking Poll provided to Premium Members. However, his lead has declined recently and been smaller than five percentage points for three consecutive days. As a result, Michigan moves back to "Toss-Up" status for our Electoral College projections.
October 29, 2004
Bush vs. Kerry on Economy and War
The War on Terror and the economy have been and remain the fundamental issues of Election 2004. We have tracked voter preference on these issues every week since January.
October 29, 2004
Florida: Bush 50% Kerry 45%
In Florida, the most infamous Toss-Up State of Election 2000, President George Bush has the lead heading into the final weekend of Election 2004.
October 28, 2004
Battleground States
In the sixteen-Battleground States that are likely to determine the winner of Election 2004, it's as close as it can be--President Bush has 48.0% of the vote and Senator Kerry has 47.5%.
October 28, 2004
In SD Senate Race, Thune 49% Daschle 46%
In the South Dakota Senate race, former Congressman John Thune attracts 49% of the vote while Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle earns 46%.
October 27, 2004
Arizona: Bush 50% Kerry 45%
In Arizona, the latest Rasmussen Reports survey finds President George W. Bush with 50% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 45%. Libertarian Michael Badnarik attracts 3% of the state's vote.
October 27, 2004
Generation Jones Women are Swing Voters
Since July, 40-49 yr. old (Generation Jones) women have vacillated more than other generations of women between John Kerry and George W. Bush.
October 27, 2004
New Mexico: Bush 48% Kerry 44%
In New Mexico, the latest Rasmussen Reports survey finds President George W. Bush with 48% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 44%. Ralph Nader has 2% of the vote and Libertarian Michael Badnarik has 1%.
October 26, 2004
Bush-Kerry Favorables
President Bush is viewed favorably by 52% of American voters. Forty-seven percent (47%) have an unfavorable opinion of the President.
The latest Kerry numbers are 51% favorable and 48% unfavorable. Last week, they were 50% and 49% respectively.
October 26, 2004
71% Decided Before Fall Campaign
Seventy-one percent (71%) of voters made their final decision on their Presidential vote before the fall campaign season began. A Rasmussen Reports survey found that 12% decided about a month ago, 9% a week ago, and 5% in the past few days.
October 26, 2004
76% Say We'll Know Winner Next Tuesday
Despite the close race and memories from four years ago, 76% of voters expect we'll know who won sometime on election night.
October 26, 2004
Ohio: Bush 50% Kerry 46%
One week to go and President George W. Bush has pulled ahead in the critical battleground state of Ohio. The latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows the President with 50% of the vote and Senator John Kerry with 46%.
October 25, 2004
49% Say Bush Better Leader
Forty-nine percent (49%) of American voters believe George W. Bush is a better leader than John Kerry.
October 24, 2004
Iowa: Bush 48% Kerry 46%
The latest Rasmussen Reports polling data shows President George W. Bush leading Senator John Kerry in Iowa 48% to 46%. That's well within the survey's margin of sampling error.
October 24, 2004
Pennsylvania: Kerry 49% Bush 46%
The race for Pennsylvania's 21 Electoral Votes is too close to call. The latest Rasmussen Reports survey of the Keystone state finds Senator John Kerry with 49% of the vote and President George W. Bush with 46%.
October 24, 2004
Week-by-Week Numbers
In the latest Rasmussen Reports full week's polling sample, President George W. Bush holds a two percentage point lead over Senator Kerry.
October 24, 2004
Just 13% Favor Draft, Few Expect It
Just 13% of American voters favor re-instatement of a military draft for the United States. A Rasmussen Reports survey found that 72% are opposed to such a step.
Perhaps because the sentiment is so overwhelming, few expect a draft anytime soon--regardless of who wins the Presidential election.
If President Bush wins, 23% of American voters believe we will have a military draft. If Senator Kerry wins, 22% believe there will be a draft. In both cases, 53% say they do not expect a draft.
