Politics

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending March 23, 2012

Friday marked the two-year anniversary of President Obama’s national health care law, and Republicans, unable to push repeal through the Democratic-controlled Senate, are now looking to the U.S. Supreme Court for relief. The high court will hold hearings this coming week on a multi-state challenge of the law’s constitutionality.

Most voters continue to favor repeal of the law as they have consistently since its passage in 2010. Public opinion has been remarkably stable on the law stretching back to late 2009.

Still, with most of the law’s provisions not scheduled to go into effect until 2014, 57% say the law has had no direct impact on their lives so far. Thirteen percent (13%) say they personally have been helped by the law to date, while twice as many (26%) say they have been hurt by it.

Obama Ahead of Romney, Santorum in Core Four States (FL, NC, OH, VA)

President Obama holds modest leads over both Republican front-runners in hypothetical Election 2012 matchups in combined polling of the key swing states Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. Obama now picks up 47% of the vote to Romney’s 42% in those states. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia was conducted on March 17-22, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Wisconsin GOP: Romney, 46%, Santorum 33%, Paul 8%, Gingrich 7%

Mitt Romney holds a double-digit lead over Rick Santorum in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at the Wisconsin Republican Primary race.

A new statewide telephone survey shows that 46% of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Wisconsin favor Romney, while 33% prefer Santorum. Texas Congressman Ron Paul is a distant third with eight percent (8%) of the vote, closely followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at seven percent (7%). One percent (1%) favors some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Wisconsin survey of 1,000 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on March 21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

62% Think Health Law Will Cause Companies To Drop Employee Health Insurance

Most voters still worry that the national health care law will cause some companies to drop employee health care coverage and think it would be bad if those employees were forced into a government insurance plan instead. 

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Voters shows that 62% believe it is at least somewhat likely that the health care law will cause some companies to drop health insurance coverage for their employees, while only 25% don’t see that as likely. These findings include 38% who view this as a Very Likely outcome but just three percent (3%) who see it as Not At All Likely. Another 13% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted on March 19-20, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Virginia: Obama Widens Lead Over Romney, Santorum

President Obama now clears the 50% mark in support against his top two potential Republican challengers in the battleground state of Virginia.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Virginia Voters finds the president leading former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney by nine points - 51% to 42%. It was a six-point race a month ago – Obama 49%, Romney 43%. Four percent (4%) now prefer another candidate in the race, and four percent (4%) more are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Virginia was conducted on March 20, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Louisiana GOP: Santorum 43%, Romney 31%, Gingrich 16%, Paul 5%

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum is comfortably ahead in Louisiana with that state’s Republican Primary just two days away.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely GOP Primary Voters in Louisiana finds Santorum with a 12-point lead over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney – 43% to 31%. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich who has pinned his hopes on capturing other Southern states beyond South Carolina and his native Georgia runs a distant third with 16% support. Texas Congressman Ron Paul comes in last with five percent (5%). One percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Louisiana survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on March 21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

56% Say Federal Government Encourages Illegal Immigration

Most voters continue to believe the policies of the federal government encourage illegal immigration, but fewer voters than ever think it’s a good idea to put the U.S. military along the border to stop the flow of illegals into this country.  

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 56% of Likely Voters say the policies and practices of the federal government encourage people to enter the United States illegally.  Twenty-seven percent (27%) disagree, while 17% are not sure.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.  

The survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted on March 19-20, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

57% Haven’t Been Impacted By Health Care Law Yet

While most voters still want to repeal the two-year-old national health care law, the majority also says the law has had no impact on them personally thus far.

Most of the health care law’s provisions won’t go into effect until 2014, and just 13% of Likely U.S. Voters say they personally have been helped by the law to date, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. Twice as many (26%) say they have been hurt by the passage of the law. Fifty-seven percent (57%) say the law has had no direct impact on their lives. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted on March 19-20, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

22% Say GOP Should Pick Veep Nominee From Remaining Presidential Also-Rans

Romney-Santorum? Romney-Gingrich? Romney-Paul? Not so fast, voters say when asked about a potential Republican ticket for this fall’s election.  Just 22% of Likely U.S. Voters, in fact, believe the eventual Republican nominee should pick one of the other three remaining candidates as his vice presidential running mate. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephones survey finds that 37% of voters don’t think that’s a good idea, but a sizable 41% aren’t sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.  

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 17-18, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

64% Say U.S. Society is Fair and Decent

A sizable majority of voters continues to feel that the United States is generally a fair and decent place, but the number who think President Obama disagrees with them is at its highest level since late 2010.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 64% of Likely U.S. Voters agree that American society is generally fair and decent. One-in-four voters (26%) disagrees and says society in this country is unfair and discriminatory. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 11-12, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

74% See China As Bigger Threat Economically Than Militarily

Americans continue to believe in overwhelming numbers that China is an economic threat to the United States. One-in-four still regard the Asian giant as an enemy of this country.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just nine percent (9%) of American Adults view China as a U.S. ally. Twenty-five percent (25%) describe China as an enemy, while 64% rate it somewhere in between the two.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Adults was conducted on March 14-15, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

53% Favor Immediate Withdrawal of All U.S. Forces From Afghanistan

Most voters now favor the immediate withdrawal of all U.S. troops in Afghanistan.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 53% of Likely U.S. Voters support the complete pullout of U.S. forces from what has become America’s longest-running war. Just 31% are opposed, while 16% are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters nationwide was conducted on March 15-16, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Missouri 2012: Romney, Santorum Lead Obama by Nine

Both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum post nine-point leads over President Obama in hypothetical Election 2012 matchups in Missouri.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Voters in Missouri shows Romney earning 50% to Obama’s 41%. Seven percent (7%) like another candidate in the race, and two percent (2%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

If Santorum is the Republican nominee in the race, he picks up 51% of the vote to 42% for the president. Four percent (4%) prefer someone else, and three percent (3%) are undecided.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This Missouri survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on March 14-15, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending March 16, 2012

The delegate hunt continues as Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum battle it out for the Republican presidential nomination. Following Santorum’s wins in the Alabama and Mississippi primaries, the former Massachusetts governor leads the former Pennsylvania by 37% to 28% among Republican voters nationally. That nine point advantage is down slightly from 12 points a week ago and 16 points two weeks ago.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich now picks up 17% support, while Texas Congressman Ron Paul earns 10% of the vote.

Next on the schedule is the Illinois primary on Tuesday. Romney leads Santorum there 41% to 32%, but given that 32% of voters still could change their minds, this represents a potential opportunity for Santorum.  Most Gingrich supporters (55%) say they could change their vote, and they overwhelmingly prefer Santorum over Romney in a two-man race.

48% in Florida View Rubio Favorably

New Florida Senator Marco Rubio has frequently been mentioned as a possible Republican vice presidential candidate, but voters in his home state have mixed feelings now about the national political newcomer.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Florida finds that 48% have at least a somewhat favorable opinion of the Republican freshman senator, while 41% view him at least somewhat unfavorably. This includes 35% with a Very Favorable view of Rubio and 26% with a Very Unfavorable one. Twelve percent (12%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Florida survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on March 13, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

National Poll: Romney 37%, Santorum 28%, Gingrich 17%, Paul 10%

The gap between former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum is only slightly narrower following the latter’s primary wins in Alabama and Mississippi on Tuesday. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary voters shows Romney with 37% of the vote to Santorum’s 28%. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich picks up 17% support while Texas Congressman Ron Paul grabs 10% of the vote. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on March 15, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Illinois: Romney 41% Santorum 32% Gingrich 14%

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has the lead in Illinois but lots of voters are still trying to decide in the final days before the state’s GOP Primary.

The first Rasmussen Reports poll in the state shows Romney at 41% and Rick Santorum at 32%. Trailing further back are Newt Gingrich at 14% and Ron Paul at seven percent (7%).  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This Illinois survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on March 15, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

48% Blame Bad Economy on Bush Recession, 46% Blame Obama's Policies

More voters are putting the blame on President Obama's policies when it comes to today's still-struggling economy.  The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Voters shows that 48% still place more blame on the economic recession that began under President George W. Bush, but that ties the lowest finding in nearly three years of tracking. Now, nearly as many (46%) say the current president's policies are more to blame, the highest finding since August 2010. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

Two separate surveys of 1,000 Likely Voters each were conducted on March 7-8 and 13-14, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error for each survey is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

56% Oppose Justice Department’s Blocking of Texas Voter ID Law

The Obama administration has blocked Texas’ new law requiring voters to show photo identification at the polls, saying it would suppress Hispanic voter turnout, and the United Nations is now investigating the fairness of such laws in Texas and other states. But voters in this country still overwhelmingly support voter ID laws and don’t think they discriminate.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 72% of Likely U.S. Voters believe voters should be required to show photo identification such as a driver’s license before being allowed to vote.  That’s in line with findings from December but remains down slightly from the 75% to 82% of voters who have supported a photo ID voting requirement in surveys since June 2006. Only 22% are opposed to the photo ID requirement. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 13-14, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Just 35% Are Confident Medicare Will Pay All Promised Benefits

Barely one-third of voters are confident that they will receive all of the Medicare benefits that they are entitled to, and a plurality still supports raising the future Medicare eligibility age to help cover the cost of benefits.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 35% of Likely U.S. Voters are at least somewhat confident that Medicare will pay all its promised benefits to them in their lifetime. This includes just 11% who are Very Confident. Sixty percent (60%), on the other hand, are not confident that they will receive all promised benefits, with 27% who are Not At All Confident. These findings show little change from  November, when regular tracking on the question began. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 9-10, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.