Politics

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending April 6, 2012

The Easter weekend comes as a welcome pause for many after a week of high-profile political debate over the role of the U.S. Supreme Court and the release of employment numbers that remind us the economy’s still in shaky condition.

After reaching a three-year high in February, the Rasmussen Employment Index slipped four points in March. Generally speaking, a decrease in the index suggests the upcoming government reports on job creation will be weaker than the prior month’s, and that was again the case this month. The number of Americans who know someone who’s given up looking for a job out of frustration is up five points from a month ago to 48%.

The Rasmussen Consumer and Investor Indexes ended the week with slight increases, and both are running 10 or more points ahead of where they were in January. However, it remains to be seen how the jobs’ report affects confidence in the coming days.

Only 15% Think Supreme Court Limits Government Too Much

While President Obama cautioned the U.S. Supreme Court this past week about overturning his national health care law, just 15% of Likely U.S. Voters think the high court puts too many limitations on what the federal government can do.

In fact, a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that twice as many--30%-- believe the Supreme Court does not limit the government enough. Forty percent (40%) say the balance is about right, while 15% more are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This national survey of 1,000 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on April 4-5, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Pennsylvania GOP: Santorum 42%, Romney 38%

Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum holds a four-point lead in his home state in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at the upcoming Pennsylvania Republican Primary.

A new statewide telephone survey finds that 42% of Likely GOP Primary Voters support Santorum, while former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney picks up 38% of the vote. Texas Congressman Ron Paul earns seven percent (7%), and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is at six percent (6%). Two percent (2%) like some other candidate in the race, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Pennsylvania survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on April 4, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

53% of Republicans See Tea Party As Political Plus; 32% of Democrats Say Same of Occupy

Voters continue to have a slightly more favorable opinion of the Tea Party compared to the Occupy Wall Street protesters. But Republicans are the only ones who see either of the groups as much of a political benefit in the upcoming elections.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 44% of Likely U.S. Voters hold at least a somewhat favorable view of Tea Party activists, while 49% share an unfavorable opinion of them. This includes 23% with a Very Favorable view and 29% with a Very Unfavorable one. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on April 2-3, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

52% in Wisconsin Support Recall of Governor Walker

A majority of Wisconsin voters now support the effort to recall Republican Governor Scott Walker.

A new Rasmussen Reports statewide survey shows that, if the recall election was held today, 52% of Likely Voters would vote to recall Governor Walker and remove him from office. Forty-seven percent (47%) would vote against the recall and let him continue to serve as governor. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Wisconsin was conducted on March 27, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

55% Favor Creation of U.S. Anti-Missile System

President Obama drew fire from his political opponents last week after he was overheard confiding to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev that U.S.-Russian missile defense negotiations would have to wait until after November’s elections, a time when the president should have more “flexibility”.  Most voters nationwide currently favor a U.S. anti-missile defense system, and a majority believes a missile attack on the U.S. is likely to occur in the near future.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows that 55% favor the creation of a U.S. anti-missile defense system, while just 16% are opposed. Another 29% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 29-30, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Voters See Romney As Leader of GOP, Boehner Second

Mitt Romney is now seen as the leader of the Republican Party, and no one else is even close.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey gave Likely U.S. Voters the names of eight well-known Republicans, including the four finalists for the party’s presidential nomination, and asked which was the leader of the GOP. Twenty-six percent (26%) said Romney, with House Speaker John Boehner second at 13%. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted on March 31-April 1, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls -- Week Ending March 31, 2012

If it’s in the news, it’s in our polls.

The U.S. Supreme Court this past week held three days of hearings on the constitutionality of President Obama’s health care law, in particular the requirement that every American obtain health insurance. Most voters (63%) continue to believe the federal government does not have the authority to force people to buy health insurance, and 54% expect the Supreme Court to overturn the law.

But as Scott Rasmussen explains in his new syndicated column, the health care law is doomed even if it survives the scrutiny of the high court. Detailing three ways the law could meet its end, Scott writes, “Nothing the court decides will keep the law alive for more than a brief period of time.”

58% Oppose Reducing Size of U.S. Nuclear Arsenal

With questions swirling about President Obama’s plans for the U.S. nuclear weapons arsenal, Americans still believe overwhelmingly that those weapons are critical to the nation’s security. Most continue to oppose reducing the size of that arsenal.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 80% of American Adults rate America’s nuclear weapons arsenal as at least somewhat important to U.S. national security. That includes 57% who think it’s Very Important, up six points from 51% when the question was first asked in August 2010. Only 14% feel the nuclear arsenal is not very or Not At All Important to this nation’s security. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 American Adults was conducted on March 26-27, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Wisconsin GOP: Romney 44%, Santorum 34%, Gingrich 7%, Paul 7%

The numbers have moved little over the past week with Mitt Romney still holding a double-digit lead over Rick Santorum in the closing days of the Wisconsin Republican Primary race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Wisconsin shows Romney with 44% support to Santorum’s 34%. A week ago in Wisconsin, it was Romney 46% and Santorum 33%.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Congressman Ron Paul both pick up seven percent (7%) of the vote from Badger State Republicans, virtually unchanged from the previous survey. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This Wisconsin survey of 717 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on March 29, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Maryland GOP: Romney 45%, Santorum 28%, Gingrich 12%, Paul 7%

Republican front-runner Mitt Romney is well ahead of his chief rival Rick Santorum in Maryland with that state’s primary less than a week away.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Maryland shows Romney with 45% support to Santorum’s 28%. Twelve percent (12%) favor former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, while Texas Congressman Ron Paul earns seven percent (7%) of the vote. Two percent (2%) like another candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Maryland survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on March 28, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

54% Expect U.S. Supreme Court To Overturn Health Care Law

Most voters continue to believe the federal government does not have the authority to force people to buy health insurance, and they expect the U.S. Supreme Court to overturn President Obama’s health care law that includes that mandate.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 50% of Likely U.S. Voters would like to see the Supreme Court overturn the health care law, and 54% predict that that’s what the court will do.

Thirty-seven percent (37%) would like to see the high court uphold the legality of the law, but just 26% think that’s what the court will ultimately decide. Thirteen percent (13%) are undecided about the law, and 21% aren’t sure what the Supreme Court will do about it. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted on March 27-28, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Voters Less Confident Than Ever That Social Security Will Pay All Promised Benefits

Voters’ confidence in the Social Security system has fallen over the last few years, but now fewer voters than ever believe they will be paid all they are owed in their lifetime.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that only 35% of Likely U.S. Voters are confident that Social Security will pay all promised benefits over their lifetime, including just 13% who are Very Confident. This is down from 44% last month and down from the previous low of 39% in December 2008. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 23-24, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology. 

48% Oppose Requiring Women to View Ultrasounds Before Abortions

Voters nationwide are closely divided over laws being proposed in a growing number of states that require pregnant women to view their fetus via ultrasound before they can get an abortion. But voters overwhelmingly oppose allowing government to mandate medical procedures.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Voters shows that 41% favor proposed laws that would require pregnant women to view an ultrasound picture before having an abortion. Forty-eight percent (48%) oppose such a law, while 11% are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 25-26, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

46% of GOP Voters Still Like Primary Process

As tempers flare and the language gets harsher in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, a plurality (46%) of GOP voters continues to believe the primary process is a good way to select a nominee. But that’s down from 53% in early September before the battle began in earnest. 

Among all voters, the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 42% think the current primary process is a good way to pick a party’s nominee. Thirty-three percent (33%) say it’s a bad way to choose a nominee, and 25% more are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter  or Facebook .  

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 23-24, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC . See methodology.

60% Say Border Control Is Priority in Immigration Reform

Voters continue to support a welcoming immigration policy and still feel strongly that immigration reform should focus on border control.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 60% of Likely Voters think when it comes to immigration reform, gaining control of the border is more important than legalizing the status of undocumented workers who are already in the United States.  Thirty-three percent (33%) feel the opposite is true.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter  or Facebook .  

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 19-20, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC . See methodology.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending March 23, 2012

Friday marked the two-year anniversary of President Obama’s national health care law, and Republicans, unable to push repeal through the Democratic-controlled Senate, are now looking to the U.S. Supreme Court for relief. The high court will hold hearings this coming week on a multi-state challenge of the law’s constitutionality.

Most voters continue to favor repeal of the law as they have consistently since its passage in 2010. Public opinion has been remarkably stable on the law stretching back to late 2009.

Still, with most of the law’s provisions not scheduled to go into effect until 2014, 57% say the law has had no direct impact on their lives so far. Thirteen percent (13%) say they personally have been helped by the law to date, while twice as many (26%) say they have been hurt by it.

Obama Ahead of Romney, Santorum in Core Four States (FL, NC, OH, VA)

President Obama holds modest leads over both Republican front-runners in hypothetical Election 2012 matchups in combined polling of the key swing states Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. Obama now picks up 47% of the vote to Romney’s 42% in those states. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia was conducted on March 17-22, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Wisconsin GOP: Romney, 46%, Santorum 33%, Paul 8%, Gingrich 7%

Mitt Romney holds a double-digit lead over Rick Santorum in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at the Wisconsin Republican Primary race.

A new statewide telephone survey shows that 46% of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Wisconsin favor Romney, while 33% prefer Santorum. Texas Congressman Ron Paul is a distant third with eight percent (8%) of the vote, closely followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at seven percent (7%). One percent (1%) favors some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Wisconsin survey of 1,000 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on March 21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

62% Think Health Law Will Cause Companies To Drop Employee Health Insurance

Most voters still worry that the national health care law will cause some companies to drop employee health care coverage and think it would be bad if those employees were forced into a government insurance plan instead. 

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Voters shows that 62% believe it is at least somewhat likely that the health care law will cause some companies to drop health insurance coverage for their employees, while only 25% don’t see that as likely. These findings include 38% who view this as a Very Likely outcome but just three percent (3%) who see it as Not At All Likely. Another 13% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted on March 19-20, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.