Politics

6% of GOP Voters Ready to Vote Third Party If Their Favorite Isn’t The Nominee

Texas Congressman Ron Paul at a debate Saturday night in New Hampshire refused to rule out a third party run for the presidency if he fails to win the Republican nomination. But there’s minimal support for a third party candidate among Republican voters even if their favorite candidate is not the nominee.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that six percent (6%) of Likely Republican Primary voters nationwide say they would vote for a third party candidate if the candidate they’re backing for the GOP nomination comes up short. Slightly more (8%) say they would vote for President Obama if that was the case. But 78% of these GOP voters plan to vote for the Republican candidate no matter what. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on January 4, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

30% Say Global Warming A Very Serious Problem

Belief that global warming is a serious problem is at its highest level in two-and-half-years, but fewer voters than ever give President Obama positive marks on his handling of this issue.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Voters finds that 64% say global warming is at least a somewhat serious problem, including 30% who say it’s Very Serious.  One-in-three voters (33%) believe climate change is not a serious problem, with 14% who feel it’s Not At All Serious.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on January 3-4, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending January 6, 2012

Like a weathered old gunslinger who has to face down every newcomer who thinks he’s faster on the draw, Mitt Romney has yet another challenger stepping out of the pack. First it was Michele Bachmann followed by Rick Perry; then it was Herman Cain. Next came Newt Gingrich, and now it’s Rick Santorum.

After his photo finish with Romney in last Tuesday’s Iowa caucuses, Santorum is now in second place among Republican voters in the race for the party’s 2012 presidential nomination.  Romney’s back in first place with support from 29%, followed by Santorum with 21%. Gingrich, who led in late November with 38% of the vote, now runs third with 16%. Texas Congressman Ron Paul, the third place finisher in Iowa, picks up 12% of the vote, up from eight percent (8%) in the previous survey.

In the short term, Romney doesn’t appear to have any worries. Next up is the first-in the-nation New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, and the former Massachusetts governor is pulling far ahead.  His nearest rival now trails him by more than 20 points.

The night before the primary, Scott Rasmussen will host a political talk show, “What New Hampshire Thinks with Scott Rasmussen,” in partnership with WBIN-TV, based in Derry, N.H.  The 9 pm Eastern program on Monday will include new Rasmussen Reports numbers on the New Hampshire primary race. Segments from the program will be released Tuesday on the Rasmussen Reports website.

GOP Voters View Romney As Strongest Obama Opponent, Paul the Weakest

Likely Republican primary voters nationwide now tend to see former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney as the strongest challenger to President Obama, but regardless of who wins their party's nomination, most of these voters are confident their candidate will win the White House in November.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of likely Republican primary voters shows that 44% believe Romney would be the strongest candidate against Obama in the general election this November. Far behind is former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who is seen that way by 17%. Fifteen percent (15%) believe former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum would be the strongest general election opponent, up from two percent (2%) in mid-December. No other candidate reaches double-digits, and 12% of voters are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on January 4, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

New Hampshire: Romney 42%, Paul 18%, Santorum 13%, Huntsman 12%

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is pulling away from the pack in New Hampshire as Tuesday’s first-in-the-nation primary nears. His nearest rival now trails him by more than 20 points.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in New Hampshire finds Romney earning 42% support. Texas Congressman Ron Paul is a distant second with 18% of the vote, followed by former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, hot off his photo finish with Romney in the Iowa caucuses, at 13%. Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, who has focused his campaign efforts on New Hampshire, captures 12% support.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This New Hampshire survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on January 5, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending December 30, 2011

The old year’s out, the new year’s in, but you’d hardly notice it from the unbroken pace of politicking in Iowa as Tuesday’s caucus approaches. Now it’s time for Election 2012 to get real.

After months of volatility, Mitt Romney and Ron Paul remain the front-runners in Iowa for the third week in a row. Romney earns 23% support from likely caucus participants to Paul’s 22%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum has moved into third place with 16%, his best showing to date, closely followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Governor Rick Perry who earn 13% of the vote each. Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann picks up five percent (5%) support, while former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman gets three percent (3%), marking no movement on either candidate’s part over the past week.

But 41% of these likely caucus-goers say they still could change their minds, and six percent (6%) more have no first preference, suggesting that much could change in the last few days. In short, as Scott Rasmussen wrote recently, it continues to be a game of musical chairs in Iowa to determine who will emerge near the top and go on in the contest for the Republican presidential nomination. 

Romney has now jumped out front of President Obama by a 45% to 39% margin. It’s his biggest lead ever over the incumbent and also the biggest lead a named Republican candidate has held over Obama in Rasmussen Reports surveying to date.

51% See Occupy Wall Street Protesters As Public Nuisance

Enough is enough as far as most voters are concerned when it comes to the Occupy Wall Street protesters.  In fact, 51% of Likely U.S. Voters now view the protesters as a public nuisance. Only 39% see them as a valid protest movement representing the frustrations of most Americans.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey also finds that just 24% think the Occupy Wall Street protesters who first began their protests in early October have gotten their message across to the American people. Fifty-three percent (53%) say they have not gotten their message across, and another 24% are not sure.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on January 3-4, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

49% of Voters Are Pro-Choice, 43% Pro-Life

Election season is officially underway, and although the abortion issue doesn't rank high in terms of voting importance, voters nationwide remain consistent on the topic.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows that 49% are pro-choice when it comes to abortion, while 43% say they are pro-life. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook
The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on January 2, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

55% View Social Security Favorably, But Only 48% Think It’s A Good Deal

Most voters continue to have a favorable opinion of Social Security even though they don’t think it’s a good deal for working Americans. Not surprisingly, younger voters remain more skeptical of the system than older voters do.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of Likely U.S. Voters share at least a somewhat favorable opinion of the government retirement system, although that includes just 28% with a Very Favorable view of it. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 40% hold an unfavorable view of Social Security, but only 12% regard it Very Unfavorably. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on December 29-30, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology. 

57% Say Military Veterans Should Get Preferential Treatment in Hiring

Thirty-nine percent (39%) know someone who joined the military because of the bad job market, and most adults feel that veterans like those now returning from Iraq should be given special consideration when applying for a private sector job.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 57% of Americans believe veterans should receive preferential treatment when applying for a job.  That’s up 11 points from 46% in May 2009.  Twenty-six percent (26%) disagree and oppose special treatment for veterans, but 18% more are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Adults was conducted on December 30, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Election 2012: Generic Republican 47%, Obama 43%

A generic Republican candidate now holds a four-point lead over President Obama in a hypothetical Election 2012 matchup.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey for the short holiday week ending Friday, December 30, finds that 47% of Likely U.S. Voters would support the generic Republican candidate if the presidential election were held today, while 43% would vote for Obama. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 3,000 Likely Voters was conducted December 26-30, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Voters See All GOP Hopefuls As Conservative, But Romney, Paul Least So

Voters identify all of the leading Republican presidential contenders as ideological conservatives but see Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, the leaders in polls going into today’s Iowa Caucuses, as the least conservative of the group. 

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 56% of Likely U.S. Voters regard Romney as at least somewhat conservative, including 14% who say he’s Very Conservative.  Twenty-six percent (26%) say Romney’s a moderate. Only nine percent (9%) think the former Massachusetts governor is somewhat or very liberal, and another nine percent (9%) aren’t sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Obama Full-Month Approval Index Inches Up in December

When tracking President Obama’s job approval on a daily basis, people sometimes get so caught up in the day-to-day fluctuations that they miss the bigger picture. To look at the longer-term trends, Rasmussen Reports compiles the numbers on a full-month basis, and the results can be seen in the graphics below.

Overall, the president's numbers improved slightly in December, though he ends 2011 with a lower rating than he began it.

In December, 23% of voters Strongly Approved of the president’s job performance, up two points from the previous month.   The number who Strongly Disapproved of the president’s performance in December was at 40%, showing no change from November.

Only 32% Favor National Parade Now for Troops Returning from Iraq

Unlike U.S. troops returning from World War II and the Gulf war, the veterans coming home from the now-ended war in Iraq won’t be getting a national parade to honor their service, and most Americans agree the parade should wait until all troops are withdrawn from Afghanistan, too.

The latest Rasmussen reports national telephone survey finds that only 32% of American Adults believe a national parade should be held to honor the final U.S. troops returning home from Iraq. Fifty-five percent (55%) say instead that the parade should wait until all troops are brought home from Afghanistan as well. Just nine percent (9%) don’t think there should be any parade at all. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Adults nationwide was conducted on December 30, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

New High: 48% Say Most Members of Congress Are Corrupt

The belief that politicians use their office for personal gain is growing.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 48% of Likely U.S. Voters believe that most members of Congress are corrupt. Just 28% disagree, and another 24% are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on December 27-28, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

47% Expect GOP to Win White House, 39% Think Obama Will Win

Voters right now give the edge to Republicans when asked which political party is likely to win the White House and control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate in next November’s elections. Republicans are more confident about their party’s chances than Democrats are, but a lot of voters are undecided.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 47% of Likely U.S. Voters think the Republican candidate is most likely to beat President Obama, while 39% expect the incumbent to win reelection. Fourteen percent (14%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on December 27-28, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Iowa Caucus: Romney 23%, Paul 22%, Santorum 16%

After months of volatility, Mitt Romney and Ron Paul remain the front-runners in Iowa for the third week in a row with the state’s Republican caucus just five days away.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely GOP caucus participants finds Romney with 23% support to Paul’s 22%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum has moved into third place with 16%, his best showing to date, closely followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Governor Rick Perry who earn 13% of the vote each.

This Iowa survey of 750 Likely Republican Caucus Participants was conducted on December 28, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Voters Don't Expect Spending Cuts Under Either Party

Most voters don't believe government spending will go down if Republicans control both the White House and Congress, and they're sure spending will go up if Democrats are in charge of both branches of government.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that just 38% of Likely U.S. Voters believe government spending is likely to go down if a Republican is elected president and the GOP wins control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Twenty-six percent (26%) think spending will go up, and 29% predict that it will stay about the same. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on December 27-28, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

53% Still Favor Building Keystone XL Pipeline

Most voters continue to favor the building of an oil pipeline from Canada to Texas that congressional Republicans are prodding President Obama to approve in legislation passed last week. Republicans see the pipeline as a job creator, while Democrats view it as an environmental risk.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 53% of Likely U.S. Voters now at least somewhat favor building the Keystone XL pipeline. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on December 26, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

President Obama's Job Approval Faith Gap

Opinions about President Obama are divided sharply along lines of faith and religious participation.

New Rasmussen Reports national telephone surveying of Likely U.S. Voters shows that the president earns a job approval rating of 58% among those who rarely or never attend church or religious services. However, among those who attend services every week or nearly every week, just 38% offer their approval. Among those who attend more than one service a week, approval is even lower at 31%.

The survey of 6,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted from December 12-22, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 1 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.