Politics

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending February 10, 2012

Here we go again. Another Republican surges up out of the pack to challenge Mitt Romney’s grip on the party’s presidential nomination. Meanwhile, President Obama appears to have helped his rivals with a bad political call forcing Catholic institutions to go against their basic beliefs and pay for contraception.

In a survey taken Monday evening, Romney reclaimed the lead in the national race for the Republican presidential nomination, jumping ahead of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich 34% to 27%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum earned 18% of the vote, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul ran last with 11%.

Then the following day Santorum won the trifecta, sweeping caucuses in Minnesota and Colorado and a non-binding primary in Missouri. His numbers nationally and in other states began to move, reinforcing that Romney has yet to seal the deal with many Republican voters. Still, 75% of those voters predicted early in the week that Romney will be the ultimate nominee, but it will be interesting to see if Romney holds on to the leads he has in the next primary states of  Arizona and Michigan.

32% Say Arab Spring Good for U.S., 31% Say Bad

With political chaos continuing in Egypt and Libya, voters are now evenly divided over whether the political changes from last year’s so-called “Arab Spring” are good or bad for the United States. Most favor an end to long-standing U.S. aid to Egypt.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 32% of Likely U.S. Votes believe that the recent changes in government in countries such as Egypt, Libya and Tunisia are good for the United States. But just as many (31%) now disagree and see them as bad. Fourteen percent (14%) think the changes from the Arab Spring have no impact on America, but an additional 24% aren’t sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters nationwide was conducted on February 8-9, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Ohio Senate: Brown (D) 44%, Mandel (R) 40%

Incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown has a narrow lead over Republican challenger Josh Mandel in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at Ohio’s 2012 race for the U.S. Senate.

A new telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state shows Brown earning 44% support to Mandel’s 40%. Four percent (4%) like another candidate in the race, and, tellingly, 12% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This Ohio survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on February 8, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

More Voters Than Ever Blame Bush, Not Obama, for Bad Economy

Voter confidence in President Obama’s handling of the economy is at its highest level in a year’s time. That’s in line with the recent upticks in overall economic confidence and in Obama’s job approval ratings as measured by the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Forty percent (40%) of Likely U.S. Voters now rate the president’s performance in the economic area as good or excellent, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. That’s up from 36% a week ago and is the highest positive finding since the first week in February 2011. Obama seldom has cracked the 40% mark in regular surveying since the first year of his presidency. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The surveys of 1,000 Likely Voters each were conducted February 4-5, 2012 and February 6-7, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

53% Approve of Obama in Michigan

Most voters in Michigan now like the job President Obama is doing as president, but voters give mixed marks to their new governor, Republican Rick Snyder.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Michigan finds that 53% approve of the presidents’ job performance, while 45% disapprove. This includes 34% who Strongly Approve and an identical 34% who Strongly Disapprove. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This Michigan survey of 1,806 Likely Voters was conducted on February 1, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Most GOP Voters Still Think Romney Will Be The Nominee

Even before Rick Santorum’s trifecta on Tuesday, he was one of the most popular of the Republican presidential candidates, but he’s never remotely challenged Mitt Romney for the top slot when GOP voters are asked who is most likely to be their nominee. The test for Santorum in the days ahead is to see if he can convince voters otherwise.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey, taken just before the voting on Tuesday, finds that 75% of Likely Republican Primary Voters nationwide believe Romney will ultimately be the GOP presidential nominee. Just 11% expect former House Speaker Newt Gingrich to win, with three percent (3%) who predict Santorum will come out on top. Only one percent (1%) think Texas Congressman Ron Paul will be the party’s standard bearer. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on February 6, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

50% Oppose Gov't Mandate for Religious Organizations to Provide Contraceptives

Half of voters do not agree with the Obama administration’s action forcing Catholic institutions to pay for birth control measures that they morally oppose. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 39% of Likely U.S. Voters believe the government should require a church or religious organization to provide contraceptives for women even if it violates their deeply held beliefs. Fifty percent (50%) disagree and oppose such a requirement that runs contrary to strong beliefs, while 10% more are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update ? If it's in the news, it's in our polls.) Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter  or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 6-7, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC . See methodology.

43% Say Random Choices From Phone Book Better Than Current Congress

With positive ratings for Congress at an all-time low, it may come as no surprise that a plurality of voters nationwide believes a group of people randomly selected from a telephone book would do a better job than the current legislators. 

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows that 43% believe a group of people randomly selected from the phone book would do a better job than the current Congress. Thirty-eight percent (38%) disagree with that assessment, while another 19% are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.  

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 2-3, 2012 Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

67% Favor Ending U.S. Combat Role in Afghanistan by Next Year

Voters strongly favor the Obama administration’s plan to wrap up U.S. combat action in Afghanistan by the middle of next year, and most think there’s a good chance the plan will succeed as proposed. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 67% of Likely U.S. Voters favor ending the U.S. combat military mission in Afghanistan by the middle of next year. Just 22% are opposed to ending combat actions by then. Eleven percent (11%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters nationwide was conducted on February 2-3, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

59% Say Election Rules 'Rigged' To Help Congressional Incumbents

Fewer than half of voters nationwide still believe elections are generally fair. Most think the system is rigged to benefit incumbents in Congress.The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. voters shows that 48% believe elections are fair to voters, but nearly as many (42%) disagree. Ten percent (10%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 2-3, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

If Israel Attacks Iran, 48% Want U.S. to Help Israel

Voters nationwide remain firmly convinced that Iran is likely to develop a nuclear weapon in the near future, and if so, will use it against Israel. At the same time, most also think an Israeli attack on Iran is likely to happen within the next year.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows that 83% believe it is at least somewhat likely Iran will develop a nuclear weapon in the near future, including 50% who say that is Very Likely to happen. Only 11% say it’s Not Very or Not At All Likely Iran will develop a nuclear weapon soon. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 4-5, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

54% Favor Repeal of Health Care Law, 43% Say It Will Be Bad For U.S.

While a majority of U.S. voters continues to favor repeal of the national health care law, the number who believes it will be good for the country is at an all-time high. 

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 54% of Likely Voters at least somewhat favor repeal of the health care law, while 41% oppose repeal.  These figures include 39% who Strongly Favor repeal and 27% who Strongly Oppose it.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 4-5, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

In Arizona, Obama Approval at 41%

Many Democrats have high hopes for the Southwest in Election 2012 and some even think that President Obama even has a decent shot to move Arizona from Republican to Democrat in the Electoral College column this November. However, the president may have an uphill fight to achieve that goal as most voters in the Grand Canyon State disapprove of the way he’s done his job.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone poll found that just 41% of Likely Voters in Arizona approve of the way President Obama has performed his role. Fifty-six percent (56%) disapprove. Those figures are significantly lower than the president’s national ratings. They include 28% who Strongly Approve and 48% who Strongly Disapprove. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This Arizona survey of 1,230 Likely Voters was conducted on February 1, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls For The Week Ending February 4, 2012

Mitt Romney’s victory in Florida put him back on top as the clear frontrunner in the race for the GOP nomination. Rasmussen Reports and others had accurately projected Romney’s victory in advance but the fact that he got more votes than Gingrich and Santorum combined still caught many observers off guard.

Romney is expected to win big in Nevada today and has leads in the next two primary states—Michigan and Arizona. A commentary by Larry Sabato and his colleagues, however, suggests, that the race for the Republican nomination is unlikely to end any time soon. Michael Barone adds that Romney Faces Tough Opponents in a Long War.

Rasmussen Reports has begun daily tracking of the possible Obama-Romney match-up and is updating numbers for other GOP candidates on a rotating basis.

50% Say Candidate Can Win Without Criticizing Opponent

Voters have slightly more faith in the power of positive campaigning than they did four years ago during the last presidential campaign cycle.

Fifty percent (50%) of Likely U.S. Voters believe it is possible for a candidate to win an election without criticizing his or her opponent. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 37% think it’s not possible to win that way, and 13% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on January 31-February 1, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

69% Oppose Efforts to Increase Those on Food Stamps

A record 46.2 million Americans were on food stamps by last fall, but the Obama administration is still concerned that some segments of the population are missing out on government food assistance. However, most Americans oppose trying to get more people on food stamps.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of American Adults finds that just 11% favor new government efforts to encourage more people to receive food stamps.  Sixty-nine percent (69%) oppose such efforts, while another 21% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.  

The survey of 1,000 Adults nationwide was conducted on January 30-31, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Michigan GOP Primary: Romney 38%, Gingrich 23%, Santorum 17%, Paul 14%

Mitt Romney, coming off his big win in the Florida Primary on Tuesday, is the clear front-runner in the first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the Republican presidential race in his home state of Michigan. Voters in this hard hit state see Romney as the much better choice to manage the economy. The Michigan Republican Primary is on February 28.

Romney earns 38% support from Likely Republican Primary Voters in Michigan, with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich a distant second with 23% of the vote. Seventeen percent (17%) prefer former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum, and nearly as many (14%) favor Texas Congressman Ron Paul. One percent (1%) like some other candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here).

This Michigan survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on February 1, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Obama Full-Month Approval Hits Highest Point Since June

When tracking President Obama’s job approval on a daily basis, people sometimes get so caught up in the day-to-day fluctuations that they miss the bigger picture. To look at the longer-term trends, Rasmussen Reports compiles the numbers on a full-month basis, and the results can be seen in the graphics below.

Overall, while the president's numbers improved only slightly in January, he now enjoys his highest monthly approval index since June of last year.

In January, 24% of voters Strongly Approved of the president’s job performance, up a point from the previous month.   The number who Strongly Disapproved of the job Obama is doing was at 39% in January, down one point from December.

His full-month Presidential Approval Index rating for January was -15, up two points from December and the president’s best showing since June.  However, the president started 2011 with a rating of -11 and enjoyed a positive index of 23 when he first assumed office in January 2009.

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night. The monthly numbers in this article are based on approximately 15,000 interviews each month with likely voters. The margin of sampling error is less than +/- 1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

48% Give Obama Positive Marks On Leadership

In a survey conducted a week after President Obama’s third State of the Union Address, positive reviews for the president’s leadership are the highest measured since late 2009.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows that 48% now give Obama good or excellent marks as a leader, including 20% who give him an excellent grade. Thirty-four percent (34%) rate his leadership as poor. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on January 29-30, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

53% Favor Fingerprinting Requirement For Food Stamp Applicants

New York Governor Andrew Cuomo is aiming to end New York City’s policy of requiring food stamp applicants to be fingerprinted, a policy the city’s mayor, Michael Bloomberg, wants to keep in place.  A new survey shows that a majority of Americans nationwide favor requiring food stamp applicants to be fingerprinted in order to be eligible.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of American Adults shows that 53% believe Americans applying for food stamps should be required to be fingerprinted in order to be eligible. More than a third (36%) disagrees, while 11% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.  

The survey of 1,000 Adults was conducted on January 30-31, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.