Politics

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending February 24, 2012

Tuesday will tell us a lot about the race for the Republican presidential nomination, and right now the numbers are running Mitt Romney’s way. Things are a little murkier when it comes to the following week’s Super Tuesday.

The former Massachusetts governor has widened his lead over leading challenger Rick Santorum in Arizona with that state’s primary looming on Tuesday. It’s now Romney 42%, Santorum 29%, with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Congressman Ron Paul far behind.

Montana: Romney 48%, Obama 41%

President Obama lost Montana to Senator John McCain in 2008 by a 50% to 47% margin. Now he draws even less support against the top two Republican hopefuls in the first Rasmussen Reports Election 2012 survey in the Treasure State.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide survey of Likely Voters in Montana shows former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney leading the president 48% to 41%. Seven percent (7%) prefer some other candidate in the race, while four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum picks up 45% of the vote to Obama’s 41%. Nine percent (9%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) remain undecided.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Montana was conducted on February 22, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Arizona GOP Primary: Romney 42%, Santorum 29%

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has widened his lead over leading challenger Rick Santorum in the Arizona Republican Primary race with the vote just four days away.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Arizona Republican Primary Voters finds Romney leading Santorum 42% to 29%. The survey, taken after the last scheduled debate of the GOP candidates, finds Romney up three points and Santorum down two from a week ago when it was a 39% to 31% race.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich earns 16% support, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul trails with eight percent (8%), marking virtually no change for either man from the previous survey. Only one percent (1%) favors another candidate in the race, and three percent (3%) remain undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Arizona survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on February 23, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Michigan GOP Primary: Romney 40%, Santorum 34%

True to a primary season already marked by sudden and surprising ups and downs, Mitt Romney has jumped back into the lead in Michigan’s Republican Primary race. The vote’s on Tuesday.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Michigan shows Romney with 40% of the vote and former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum with 34%. The poll was conducted on Thursday night, following the last scheduled debate among the GOP candidates. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This Michigan survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on February 23, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.  

59% Say Border Control More Important to Immigration Reform

Voters continue to name border control as the more important issue in immigration reform, but they also still support a welcoming immigration policy.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters think when it comes to immigration reform, gaining control of the border is more important than legalizing the status of illegal immigrants who are already in this country. That’s down two points from last month but in line with findings on the question since February 2007.

Thirty-four percent (34%) of voters think it is more important to legalize the status of undocumented workers already living here, unchanged from last month. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 16-17, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC . See methodology.

Obama Tied With Romney, Santorum in Core Four States (FL, NC, OH, VA)

Four years ago, President Obama won a solid victory in the Electoral College by carrying the big swing states and adding a couple of states that had been in the Republican column for decades. As he seeks reelection, attention will likely focus on four key states—Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia.

Georgia Primary: Gingrich 33%, Santorum 28%, Romney 20%, Paul 9%

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich leads the pack in the first Rasmussen Reports survey of the Republican Primary race in his home state of Georgia. A new telephone survey of Likely Georgia Republican Primary Voters shows Gingrich with 33% support, followed by former Senator Rick Santorum at 28%. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney runs third with 20% of the vote, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul trails with nine percent (9%). Two percent (2%) like some other candidate in the race, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Virginia Senate: Allen (R) 46%, Kaine (D) 46%

The hotly contested U.S. Senate race in Virginia between two popular former governors remains a dead heat.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Old Dominion finds Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican George Allen both earning 46% support. Three percent (3%) prefers some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Virginia was conducted on February 21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Oklahoma Primary: Santorum 43%, Gingrich 22%, Romney 18%, Paul 7%

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum holds a two-to-one lead over his closest GOP rival in the first Rasmussen Reports survey of Oklahoma’s Republican primary race.

The latest statewide survey of Likely GOP Primary voters shows Santorum with 43% of the vote followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with 22% and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney at 18%. Texas Congressman Ron Paul draws seven percent (7%) support. Just two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate in the race, while seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Oklahoma survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on February 21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

38% Think Insurers Should Provide Morning After Pill for Free

Support for mandating coverage of the so-called "morning after pill" is lower than support for mandating coverage of contraceptives in general.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 38% of Likely U.S. Voters think health insurance companies should be required by law to cover the morning after pill without co-payments or other charges to the patient. Fifty percent (50%) disagree and oppose this requirement. Thirteen percent (13%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 20-21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Voters View Geithner, Holder Slightly More Favorably

All boats rise with the tide? Like President Obama's job approval ratings in recent weeks, voter perceptions of two of his top Cabinet officers - Attorney General Eric Holder and Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner - are up slightly since the end of last year.

Despite a House resolution calling for Holder's resignation following the botched Fast and Furious investigation involving Mexican drug cartels, 26% of Likely U.S. Voters have at least a somewhat favorable opinion of the attorney general, up from 19% in mid-December.  A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that a plurality (40%) still views Holder unfavorably, but that's down three points from his all-time high of 43% in December. Thirty-nine percent (39%) have no opinion of him. The new findings include nine percent with a Very Favorable view of Holder and 24% with a Very Unfavorable one. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook. 

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 16-17, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Michigan Primary: Santorum 38%, Romney 34%

The Michigan Republican Primary is just a week away, and former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum is holding on to a small lead over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Michigan shows Santorum with 38% of the vote to Romney’s 34%. Well behind are Texas Congressman Ron Paul with 10% support and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at nine percent (9%). Only one percent (1%) prefers some other candidate in the race, while eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Michigan survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on February 20, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

59% Fear Efforts To Deport Illegal Immigrants Will Violate Civil Rights of Citizens

While most voters continue to strongly support border control to stop the flow of illegal immigrants into this country, they also remain concerned that legal citizens will be caught up inadvertently in these efforts.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters are at least somewhat concerned that efforts to identify and deport illegal immigrants will also end up violating the civil rights of some U.S. citizens.  Thirty-eight percent (38%) are not concerned a citizen’s rights will be violated in this process.  These figures include 28% who are Very Concerned and 10% who are Not At All Concerned.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 16-17, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC . See methodology.

29% Favor $10,000 Subsidies for Electric Car Buyers

President Obama in his latest budget has proposed $10,000 subsidies to encourage the purchase of electric cars with his goal of having one million of the vehicles on the road by 2015. But voters by a two-to-one margin oppose taxpayer-funded subsidies for this purpose.

Just 29% of Likely U.S. Voters favor $10,000 government subsidies to encourage the purchase of electric cars, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. Fifty-eight percent (58%) are opposed to such subsidies. Thirteen percent (13%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 18-19, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

54% Favor Full Combat Role for Women in Military

Most voters think women should be allowed to serve in the same combat military roles as men but also believe they should be able to pass the same physical tests as men do if they’re going to be in the Green Berets or Navy SEALs.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 22% of Likely U.S. Voters incorrectly believe that women in the military are already allowed to fight on the front lines and perform all the combat roles that men do. Fifty-six percent (56%) recognizing that this is not true. Twenty-one percent (21%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 16-17, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending February 17, 2012

Politics is often a game of inches, especially when you’ve got a contest like this year’s for the White House. Gains in the economy or even perceptions that it’s improving could be enough to get President Obama across the finish line ahead of his Republican opponent.

For the first time in over two years, the number of Americans who believe the economy will be stronger one year from now is slightly higher than the number who expect it to be weaker. Thirty-seven percent (37%) believe the economy will be stronger in one year, up 10 points from November’s all-time low of 27%, while 35% expect it to be weaker a year from now.

The Rasmussen Consumer and Investor Indexes show a continuing gain in confidence among both groups, compared to a year ago.

Obama Up Big In California Against Romney, Santorum

President Obama leads both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum by more than 20 points in California,  as nearly six-out-of-ten voters approve of the way he's handling his job.

New Rasmussen Reports data shows that if Romney is the Republican nominee, Obama leads 57% to 35%.

If Santorum becomes the GOP standard bearer, the president leads 58% to 30%.

President Obama leads Romney by 23 points among unaffiliated voters and Santorum by 34 points among the same group.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This California survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted February 8-16, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Obama Up Big In California Against Romney, Santorum

President Obama leads both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum by more than 20 points in California,  as nearly six-out-of-ten voters approve of the way he's handling his job.
 
New Rasmussen Reports data shows that if Romney is the Republican nominee, Obama leads 57% to 35%.
 
If Santorum becomes the GOP standard bearer, the president leads 58% to 30%.
 
President Obama leads Romney by 23 points among unaffiliated voters and Santorum by 34 points among the same group.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This California survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted February 8-16, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Ohio GOP Primary: Santorum 42%, Romney 24%

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum continues to ride his polling momentum into Ohio where he leads Mitt Romney by nearly two-to-one in the first Rasmussen Reports survey of Republicans in the state.

The new statewide telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary voters shows Santorum picking up 42% of the vote to Romney’s 24%. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich draws 13% support, while Texas Congressman Ron Paul picks up 10%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Ohio survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on February 15, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

52% Say It’s Better for GOP To Work With Obama Than Stand on Principle

Most voters still think Republicans and Democrats in Congress are out of touch with their respective party bases but now believe it’s more important for the GOP to work with President Obama than to fight him. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 52% of Likely U.S. Voters now feel that, looking to the future, it’s more important for the Republican Party to work with the president rather than stand for what it believes in. Forty-four percent (44%) disagree and think standing for what the party believes in is more important. (To see survey question wording, click here.) The survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted on February 12-13, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.