Politics

Swing State Tracking: Romney 50%, Obama 46%

The full Swing State tracking update offers Rasmussen Reader subscribers a combined view of the results from 11 key states won by President Obama in 2008 and thought to be competitive in 2012. The states collectively hold 146 Electoral College votes and include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. If you do not already have a Rasmussen Reader account, subscribe now.

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In the 11 swing states, Mitt Romney earns 50% of the vote to Obama’s 46%.  Two percent (2%) like another candidate in the race, and another two percent (2%) are undecided.

Florida Senate: Nelson (D) 49%, Mack (R) 46%

Incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson holds just a three-point lead now in Florida’s U.S. Senate race.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Voters shows Nelson with 49% support to 46% for his Republican challenger, Congressman Connie Mack.  Two percent (2%) like some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Florida was conducted on October 25, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

60% Say Federal Government Does Not Have the Consent of the Governed

Even with Americans poised to pick a president and one-third of the nation’s senators, most voters continue to feel the federal government does not have the official approval of its citizenry. One of the central tenets of the Declaration of Independence is that “governments derive their only just powers from the consent of the governed,” but just 25% of Likely U.S. Voters think the federal government today has that consent. Sixty percent (60%) believe the federal government does not have the consent of the governed. Fifteen percent (15%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on October 21-22, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

North Carolina: Romney 52%, Obama 46%

Mitt Romney continues to hold a six-point lead in North Carolina with less than two weeks to go until Election Day.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Tar Heel State shows Romney with 52% of the vote to Barack Obama’s 46%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and another one percent (1%) is undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The race remains unchanged from a week ago, so North Carolina remains Leans Romney in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College projections.  In 2008, Obama was the first Democratic presidential candidate to carry North Carolina in over 30 years.

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in North Carolina was conducted on October 25, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Florida: Romney 50%, Obama 48%

Mitt Romney still earns 50% of the vote in the key battleground state of Florida, but his lead is smaller.
 
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Sunshine State finds Romney with 50% of the vote to President Obama's 48%. One percent (1%) is undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Florida was conducted on October 25, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Massachusetts Senate: Warren (D) 52%, Brown (R) 47%

Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren has now moved to a five-point lead over Republican incumbent Scott Brown in Massachusetts’ U.S. Senate race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Massachusetts Voters finds Warren with 52% support to Brown’s 47%. (To see survey question wording, click here.

This race now moves from a Toss-Up to Leans Democrat in the Rasmussen Reports Senate Balance of Power rankings.

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Massachusetts was conducted on October 25, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Pennsylvania Senate: Casey (D) 46%, Smith (R) 45%

The U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania is now essentially a tie.
 
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Keystone State finds incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey, Jr. with 46% of the vote, while Republican Tom Smith attracts 45%. Nine percent (9%) are still undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Pennsylvania survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 24, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Arizona: Romney 52%, Obama 44%

Mitt Romney still leads President Obama in Arizona, but the race is tightening.

A new Rasmussen Reports/CBS 5 survey of Likely Arizona Voters shows Romney with 52% of the vote to Obama’s 44%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and another two percent (2%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Arizona was conducted on October 21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Britain, Canada Still Seen As Top U.S. Allies

Canada and Great Britain remain the nations most Americans consider this country’s top allies. Iran and North Korea continue to top the enemies list.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 93% of American Adults now consider the northern neighbor of the United States to be an ally. Only one percent (1%) think of Canada as an enemy, and three percent (3%) rate it somewhere in between. (To see survey question wording, click here).

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These two surveys of 1,000 Adults each were conducted on October 16-17, 2012 and October 18-19, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error for each survey is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Pennsylvania: Obama 51%, Romney 46%

President Obama still earns over 50% of the vote in Pennsylvania.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Pennsylvania Voters shows the president with 51% of the vote to Romney’s 46%. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and two percent (2%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Pennsylvania survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 24, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Who Won the Debates? 49% Say Romney, 41% Obama

Most voters consider the three presidential debates at least somewhat important to how they will vote, and a plurality of those that watched thinks Mitt Romney was the overall debate winner.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds just eight percent (8%) of Likely U.S. Voters did not watch any of the debates. Sixty-three percent (63%) watched a portion or all of all three debates. Fourteen percent (14%) watched some or all of one of the debates, 15% some or all of two of the prime-time television encounters. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on October 23-24, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC . See methodology.

Nevada Senate: Heller (R) 50%, Berkley (D) 45%

Incumbent Republican Dean Heller continues to earn 50% support against Democratic Congresswoman Shelley Berkley in Nevada’s U.S. Senate race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Nevada voters shows Heller with 50% of the vote to Berkley’s 45%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

The race remains Leans Republican in the Rasmussen Reports Senate Balance of Power rankings. President Obama leads Mitt Romney by two points in the state, 50% to 48%. 

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This Nevada survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 23, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Arizona Senate: Flake (R) 50%, Carmona (D) 44%

Republican Congressman Jeff Flake has hit the 50% mark for the first time in the U.S. Senate race in Arizona.

A new Rasmussen Reports/CBS 5 survey finds Flake with 50% of the vote to Democrat Richard Carmona’s 44%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and another three percent (3%) are undecided. This survey was taken following the candidates' recent debate. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Arizona was conducted on October 21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

North Dakota Governor: Dalrymple (R) 53%, Taylor (D) 39%

Republican incumbent Jack Dalrymple continues to hold a healthy lead over his Democratic challenger Ryan Taylor in the North Dakota gubernatorial race. 

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely North Dakota Voters finds Dalrymple earning 53% of the vote to Ryan Taylor's 39%.  Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 600 Likely Voters in North Dakota was conducted on October 17-18, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Nevada: Obama 50%, Romney 48%

President Obama still receives 50% of the vote in Nevada’s tight presidential race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Nevada voters, taken the night after the final presidential debate, shows Obama with 50% support to Mitt Romney’s 48%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and one percent (1%) is undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Nevada survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 23, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

57% Think U.S. Elections Are Fair

With Election Day less than two weeks away, more voters than ever believe elections are fair but still think the rules are rigged to help incumbent members of Congress.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 57% of Likely U.S. Voters believe American elections are fair. Thirty percent (30%) think elections are not fair to voters. Thirteen percent (13%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on October 21-22, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Minnesota Senate: Klobuchar (D) 56%, Bills (R) 33%

Incumbent Democrat Amy Klobuchar holds a double-digit lead in her bid for reelection to the U.S. Senate in Minnesota.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Minnesota Voters finds Klobuchar leading Republican challenger Kurt Bills 56% to 33%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and nine percent (9%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Minnesota was conducted on October 21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Connecticut: Obama 52%, Romney 45%

Connecticut remains Obama country again in this year’s presidential race.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Connecticut Voters shows President Obama with 52% support to Mitt Romney’s 45%. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Connecticut survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.  See methodology.

Minnesota: Obama 51%, Romney 46%

President Obama earns just over 50% of the vote in Minnesota. 

A new telephone survey of Likely Minnesota Voters finds Barack Obama with 51% support to 46% for Mitt Romney.  One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, while another one percent (1%) is undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Minnesota is Leans Obama in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections.

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Minnesota was conducted on October 21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

North Dakota Senate: Berg (R) 50%, Heitkamp (D) 45%

Republican Congressman Rick Berg still holds a modest lead over former state Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota’s U.S. Senate race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in North Dakota finds Berg with 50% support to Heitkamp’s 45%. Five percent (5%) are still undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 600 Likely Voters in North Dakota was conducted on October 17-18, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.