Weekly Updates

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls

In surveys last week, this is what America told Rasmussen Reports...

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending April 27, 2012

Despite media fixation on the scream of the week, most Americans remain focused on the essentials, and their views on them are consistent over time, even if the Political Class continues to ignore them.

Take the auto bailouts. They’ve been unpopular since day one, and they’re still unpopular. Admittedly, thanks to the political spin out of Washington, the bailouts are a bit less unpopular because many Americans incorrectly believe the government made money or broke even on them. But when informed of the real price tag, opposition is just as high as ever.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending April 21, 2012

So goes the housing market, so goes the nation, or at least that’s the way many feel as the U.S. economy continues to stumble along.

For the first time, fewer than half (49%) of U.S. homeowners believe their home is worth more than when they bought it. That’s down 13 points from 62% last October and down a staggering 31 points from 80% who believed that to be true in June 2008. 

No wonder just 52% of Americans believe buying a home is the best investment a family can make. That compares to 73% who felt that way in September 2008.

There are some flickers of hope, but they’re not the kind of numbers to make anyone jump for joy. Eighteen percent (18%) of Americans, for example, say now is a good time for someone in their area to sell their house, the highest finding in two years, although most (63%) still don’t share that sentiment.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending April 14, 2012

The game is on: Mitt Romney is now the presumptive Republican presidential nominee following Rick Santorum’s decision Tuesday to put his campaign on hold.

Romney has been at center stage during the GOP primary process. Now, Scott Rasmussen explains in his latest syndicated column, President Obama “becomes the defining figure of the general election campaign. Now it's about Obama, not Romney, as the election becomes primarily a referendum on his first term in office.”

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending April 6, 2012

The Easter weekend comes as a welcome pause for many after a week of high-profile political debate over the role of the U.S. Supreme Court and the release of employment numbers that remind us the economy’s still in shaky condition.

After reaching a three-year high in February, the Rasmussen Employment Index slipped four points in March. Generally speaking, a decrease in the index suggests the upcoming government reports on job creation will be weaker than the prior month’s, and that was again the case this month. The number of Americans who know someone who’s given up looking for a job out of frustration is up five points from a month ago to 48%.

The Rasmussen Consumer and Investor Indexes ended the week with slight increases, and both are running 10 or more points ahead of where they were in January. However, it remains to be seen how the jobs’ report affects confidence in the coming days.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls -- Week Ending March 31, 2012

If it’s in the news, it’s in our polls.

The U.S. Supreme Court this past week held three days of hearings on the constitutionality of President Obama’s health care law, in particular the requirement that every American obtain health insurance. Most voters (63%) continue to believe the federal government does not have the authority to force people to buy health insurance, and 54% expect the Supreme Court to overturn the law.

But as Scott Rasmussen explains in his new syndicated column, the health care law is doomed even if it survives the scrutiny of the high court. Detailing three ways the law could meet its end, Scott writes, “Nothing the court decides will keep the law alive for more than a brief period of time.”

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending March 23, 2012

Friday marked the two-year anniversary of President Obama’s national health care law, and Republicans, unable to push repeal through the Democratic-controlled Senate, are now looking to the U.S. Supreme Court for relief. The high court will hold hearings this coming week on a multi-state challenge of the law’s constitutionality.

Most voters continue to favor repeal of the law as they have consistently since its passage in 2010. Public opinion has been remarkably stable on the law stretching back to late 2009.

Still, with most of the law’s provisions not scheduled to go into effect until 2014, 57% say the law has had no direct impact on their lives so far. Thirteen percent (13%) say they personally have been helped by the law to date, while twice as many (26%) say they have been hurt by it.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending March 16, 2012

The delegate hunt continues as Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum battle it out for the Republican presidential nomination. Following Santorum’s wins in the Alabama and Mississippi primaries, the former Massachusetts governor leads the former Pennsylvania by 37% to 28% among Republican voters nationally. That nine point advantage is down slightly from 12 points a week ago and 16 points two weeks ago.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich now picks up 17% support, while Texas Congressman Ron Paul earns 10% of the vote.

Next on the schedule is the Illinois primary on Tuesday. Romney leads Santorum there 41% to 32%, but given that 32% of voters still could change their minds, this represents a potential opportunity for Santorum.  Most Gingrich supporters (55%) say they could change their vote, and they overwhelmingly prefer Santorum over Romney in a two-man race.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending March 9, 2012

Following Super Tuesday, the perception is growing that Mitt Romney will be the Republican presidential nominee. By week’s end, Romney had moved ahead of the president in head-to-head polling.

In Alabama, the GOP Primary race is essentially a three-way tie, while Romney leads by eight in Mississippi.  Nationally, Romney now leads Rick Santorum by 12 points.  Regardless of who they want to win, 80% of Republican Primary Voters believe Romney will be the party's nominee.

Romney leads Obama by five points in a hypothetical 2012 matchup. Saturday's numbers show Romney at 48%, Obama at 43%. That’s Romney’s largest lead since December and it comes at a time when the president’s job approval has been slipping a bit. Matchup results and the president’s Job Approval ratings are updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update).

This is taking place as the economy remains far and away the most important thing on voters' minds this election season.  Eighty-two percent (82%) of Likely U.S. Voters see the economy as a Very Important issue in terms of how they will vote in the next election. Nothing else comes close.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls For The Week Ending March 3, 2012

Seven primaries, three caucuses. No wonder they call it Super Tuesday. Is it also Santorum’s last stand?

Three of the states are gimmes as far as Mitt Romney’s concerned – Massachusetts, Vermont and Virginia. Rick Santorum was miles ahead in Oklahoma less than two weeks ago. But back then he was also 18 points ahead in Ohio, probably the biggest prize of the day. Now the Buckeye State is a tossup - Santorum 33%, Mitt Romney 31%. 

Romney’s been surging since his wins this past Tuesday in the Arizona and Michigan primaries. The former Massachusetts governor now leads Santorum among Likely GOP Primary voters nationwide by a 40% to 24% margin.  This is Romney's biggest lead to date and the highest level of support any GOP candidate has earned in regular surveying of the race. Two weeks earlier, it was Santorum 39%, Romney 27%.

Rasmussen Reports will report new numbers out of Ohio on Monday to see if that surge is still evident.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending February 24, 2012

Tuesday will tell us a lot about the race for the Republican presidential nomination, and right now the numbers are running Mitt Romney’s way. Things are a little murkier when it comes to the following week’s Super Tuesday.

The former Massachusetts governor has widened his lead over leading challenger Rick Santorum in Arizona with that state’s primary looming on Tuesday. It’s now Romney 42%, Santorum 29%, with former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Congressman Ron Paul far behind.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending February 17, 2012

Politics is often a game of inches, especially when you’ve got a contest like this year’s for the White House. Gains in the economy or even perceptions that it’s improving could be enough to get President Obama across the finish line ahead of his Republican opponent.

For the first time in over two years, the number of Americans who believe the economy will be stronger one year from now is slightly higher than the number who expect it to be weaker. Thirty-seven percent (37%) believe the economy will be stronger in one year, up 10 points from November’s all-time low of 27%, while 35% expect it to be weaker a year from now.

The Rasmussen Consumer and Investor Indexes show a continuing gain in confidence among both groups, compared to a year ago.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending February 10, 2012

Here we go again. Another Republican surges up out of the pack to challenge Mitt Romney’s grip on the party’s presidential nomination. Meanwhile, President Obama appears to have helped his rivals with a bad political call forcing Catholic institutions to go against their basic beliefs and pay for contraception.

In a survey taken Monday evening, Romney reclaimed the lead in the national race for the Republican presidential nomination, jumping ahead of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich 34% to 27%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum earned 18% of the vote, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul ran last with 11%.

Then the following day Santorum won the trifecta, sweeping caucuses in Minnesota and Colorado and a non-binding primary in Missouri. His numbers nationally and in other states began to move, reinforcing that Romney has yet to seal the deal with many Republican voters. Still, 75% of those voters predicted early in the week that Romney will be the ultimate nominee, but it will be interesting to see if Romney holds on to the leads he has in the next primary states of  Arizona and Michigan.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls For The Week Ending February 4, 2012

Mitt Romney’s victory in Florida put him back on top as the clear frontrunner in the race for the GOP nomination. Rasmussen Reports and others had accurately projected Romney’s victory in advance but the fact that he got more votes than Gingrich and Santorum combined still caught many observers off guard.

Romney is expected to win big in Nevada today and has leads in the next two primary states—Michigan and Arizona. A commentary by Larry Sabato and his colleagues, however, suggests, that the race for the Republican nomination is unlikely to end any time soon. Michael Barone adds that Romney Faces Tough Opponents in a Long War.

Rasmussen Reports has begun daily tracking of the possible Obama-Romney match-up and is updating numbers for other GOP candidates on a rotating basis.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending January 28, 2012

President Obama on Tuesday night delivered his final State of the Union speech before Election Day, and the public seems receptive to at least two of his major economic initiatives. At the same time, the race between the men who want his job has seesawed, with the latest numbers from Florida’s upcoming primary suggesting Newt Gingrich’s surge may have crested.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of Likely U.S. Voters agree with the president’s proposal that wealthy Americans pay at least 30% of their income in federal taxes. But 49% also think federal, state and local governments combined shouldn’t take more than 30% of anyone’s income in taxes. These findings suggest that while voters feel generally that the wealthy aren’t paying their fair share, they remain more interested in fairness than in being punitive.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending January 20, 2012

And then there were four. The South Carolina Primary claimed two of the Republican presidential hopefuls this past week – Jon Huntsman and Rick Perry – before a single vote was cast. Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich are now running nearly even, but with all the charges in the air, who knows if that will last until the votes are counted this evening?

Gingrich surged ahead of Romney 33% to 31% in the final Rasmussen Reports survey of the South Carolina Republican Primary race taken Wednesday evening. Two days earlier, before a strong debate showing by Gingrich and Sarah Palin’s endorsement of the former House speaker, it was Romney by 14 percentage points. 

Texas Congressman Ron Paul ran third on Wednesday with 15% of the vote, followed by former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum at 11%. Paul's support held steady while Santorum's support dropped five points since Monday.  At the beginning of the month, after Santorum’s strong showing in the Iowa caucuses, he ran second to Romney with 24%. Perry pulled two percent (2%) support Wednesday evening but has since dropped out of the race.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending January 14, 2012

Next Saturday’s South Carolina Republican Primary is expected to thin the pack of presidential hopefuls, but for now Mitt Romney, winner of both the Iowa caucuses and last Tuesday’s New Hampshire Primary, is the man to beat. New numbers out of South Carolina and Florida suggest that may be easier said than done.

Romney still holds first place in the South Carolina Primary field, while his opponents jockey for second. The former Massachusetts governor earns 28% support, virtually unchanged from a week ago, but now former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is in second place with 21% of the vote.  Support for former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum who was in second a week ago has fallen back to 16%, putting him dead even with Texas Congressman Ron Paul who also earns 16%.

Texas Governor Rick Perry, whose continued candidacy likely depends on the South Carolina vote, now captures six percent (6%) support, while former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman runs last with five percent (5%).

Of course, much can change in the closing days before the South Carolina primary, with just 52% who say they are certain of their vote at this time. In Iowa, a late surge by Santorum nearly swept him to victory. In New Hampshire, Paul and Huntsman made gains in the final days of the campaign. This suggests whoever is perceived as the most effective tactical alternative to Romney could see a last-minute surge in South Carolina as well.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending January 6, 2012

Like a weathered old gunslinger who has to face down every newcomer who thinks he’s faster on the draw, Mitt Romney has yet another challenger stepping out of the pack. First it was Michele Bachmann followed by Rick Perry; then it was Herman Cain. Next came Newt Gingrich, and now it’s Rick Santorum.

After his photo finish with Romney in last Tuesday’s Iowa caucuses, Santorum is now in second place among Republican voters in the race for the party’s 2012 presidential nomination.  Romney’s back in first place with support from 29%, followed by Santorum with 21%. Gingrich, who led in late November with 38% of the vote, now runs third with 16%. Texas Congressman Ron Paul, the third place finisher in Iowa, picks up 12% of the vote, up from eight percent (8%) in the previous survey.

In the short term, Romney doesn’t appear to have any worries. Next up is the first-in the-nation New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, and the former Massachusetts governor is pulling far ahead.  His nearest rival now trails him by more than 20 points.

The night before the primary, Scott Rasmussen will host a political talk show, “What New Hampshire Thinks with Scott Rasmussen,” in partnership with WBIN-TV, based in Derry, N.H.  The 9 pm Eastern program on Monday will include new Rasmussen Reports numbers on the New Hampshire primary race. Segments from the program will be released Tuesday on the Rasmussen Reports website.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending December 30, 2011

The old year’s out, the new year’s in, but you’d hardly notice it from the unbroken pace of politicking in Iowa as Tuesday’s caucus approaches. Now it’s time for Election 2012 to get real.

After months of volatility, Mitt Romney and Ron Paul remain the front-runners in Iowa for the third week in a row. Romney earns 23% support from likely caucus participants to Paul’s 22%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum has moved into third place with 16%, his best showing to date, closely followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Governor Rick Perry who earn 13% of the vote each. Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann picks up five percent (5%) support, while former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman gets three percent (3%), marking no movement on either candidate’s part over the past week.

But 41% of these likely caucus-goers say they still could change their minds, and six percent (6%) more have no first preference, suggesting that much could change in the last few days. In short, as Scott Rasmussen wrote recently, it continues to be a game of musical chairs in Iowa to determine who will emerge near the top and go on in the contest for the Republican presidential nomination. 

Romney has now jumped out front of President Obama by a 45% to 39% margin. It’s his biggest lead ever over the incumbent and also the biggest lead a named Republican candidate has held over Obama in Rasmussen Reports surveying to date.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending December 24, 2011

The vast majority of Americans celebrate tomorrow as Christmas, and most of those folks recognize the day as a celebration of the birth of Jesus Christ.  It’s a time to pause momentarily even as the news hurtles on in places as remote as North Korea and as near as Iowa where the race for the presidency gathers steam.

For a sizable number of adults, the last couple days have been panic time. As of Friday morning, 38% hadn’t finished their holiday shopping, and 18% hadn’t even started yet. Still, there’d been a lot of shopping going since Monday when 57% hadn’t finished and 26% had yet to start. 

More toys may have been on the shopping list, too. Just 41% of American Adults are even somewhat concerned about the safety of most toys being sold this holiday season, down from 51% a year ago. 

The number of adults who expect to travel away from home during the holiday season has slowly increased in recent years, but half still say the current economy makes them less likely to do so.