Generic Congressional Ballot

With less than three months remaining before election day, Republicans have a five-point lead in their battle to maintain their narrow House majority.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that if the elections for Congress were held today, 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 43% would vote for the Democrat. Just five percent (5%) would vote for some other candidate, but another four percent (4%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The GOP’s advantage is unchanged since May, when they also led by five points – 47% to 42% – over Democrats. Two years ago, in August 2022, Republicans also had a five-point lead on the generic congressional ballot. In the final poll before Election Day 2022, Republicans held a five-point lead, and scored a net gain of nine seats to capture a 222-213 House majority.

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The survey of 1,142 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on August 15 and 18-19, 2024 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The GOP’s lead on the generic ballot is due mainly to their 19-point advantage among independents. Eighty-three percent (83%) of Republicans would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate if the election were held today, while 85% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 50% would vote Republican and 31% would vote Democrat, while 12% say they’d vote for some other candidate and seven percent (7%) are undecided.

The “gender gap” has narrowed in the generic ballot, with men favoring Republicans by an eight-point margin – 51% to 43% – while women voters are almost evenly divided, with 45% for Republicans to 44% for Democrats. In May, the gap was significantly wider, with men favoring the GOP by an 11-point margin while women voters narrowly preferred Democratic candidates for Congress.

Voters under 40 prefer Democrats by a five-point margin – 47% to 42% – while those ages 40-64 favor Republicans by a 10-point margin, 50% to 40%. Among voters 65 and older, 50% would vote GOP for Congress and 46% would vote for Democrats.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of whites, 28% of black voters, 47% of Hispanics and 56% of other minorities favor Republicans, while 40% of whites, 63% of black voters, 41% of Hispanics and 37% of other minorities would vote Democrat if the election were held today.

Eighty-four percent (84%) of self-identified liberal voters would vote for Democrats, while 79% of conservatives prefer Republican candidates for Congress. Among moderate voters, 48% favor Democrats and 38% would vote GOP.

Breaking down the electorate by income categories, voters in the highest income bracket – earning more than $200,000 a year – favor Democrats by a 10-point margin (49% to 39%), while Republicans lead by 19 points, 54% to 35%, among those with annual incomes between $30,000 and $50,000.

As Democrats gather for their convention to formally nominate Vice President Kamala Harris as their presidential candidate, many voters harbor doubts about how she was picked to replace President Joe Biden as the party’s nominee. 

Most voters take seriously accusations that Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz exaggerated his military record, but a plurality say it won’t affect their vote in the presidential election.

Additional information LINK from this survey and a full demographic breakdown LINK are available to Platinum Members only.

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