Elections

Take Hillary Out of the Mix, and the Democratic Nominee is…

Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden jump to the head of the list of Democratic contenders if Hillary Clinton chooses not to run for president in 2016.

Democrats worried about the e-mail and foreign donation controversies now surrounding Clinton are beginning to talk about other possible presidential candidates for next year, but the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 88% of Likely Democratic Voters still believe Clinton is likely to be their party’s nominee. This includes 60% who say it’s Very Likely. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 8-9, 2015 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Clinton vs. Walker: It’s Very Close

Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker has surged to the front of the pack of Republican presidential hopefuls in recent weeks, and he now gives likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton a run for her money. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a  free daily e-mail update ? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 28-March 1, 2015 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

GOP Voters Agree With Romney on Need for A New Face

Republican voters agree with Mitt Romney that their party should look for someone new to run in 2016.

In announcing his decision today not to seek the Republican presidential nomination in 2016, Romney said:  “I believe that one of our next generation of Republican leaders, one who may not be as well known as I am today, one who has not yet taken their message across the country, one who is just getting started, may well emerge as being better able to defeat the Democrat nominee. In fact, I expect and hope that to be the case.”

Do Democratic Voters Like Their Party Leaders?

Democratic voters have their complaints with Washington, D.C., but they remain more content with their party’s political representation than Republican voters are.

Here are some findings from a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Democratic Voters:

-- Forty-six percent (46%) believe Democrats in Congress have done a good job representing Democratic values over the past several years. By comparison, just 24% of Republican voters think their representatives have done a good job upholding party values. But now 42% of Democrats think their legislators have lost touch with Democratic voters throughout the nation, up from 33% last September. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 648 Likely Democratic Voters was conducted on January 18-19, 2015 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Are GOP Voters to the Right of Their Representatives in Congress?

Republicans are definitely a conservative bunch. Consider these findings from a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Republican Voters:

-- Sixty percent (60%) want to repeal the national health care law and start over, compared to 30% of all voters. Only 34% of Republicans want to go through the law piece by piece to improve it.

-- Just 13% think Congress should take no action to stop President Obama’s executive order protecting up to five million illegal immigrants from deportation. Eighty-two percent (82%) of Republicans say Congress should find ways to stop it. Among all voters, 43% want to let the president’s action stand, while 48% want Congress to stop it.

-- Eighty-three percent (83%) of GOP voters agree with the late Ronald Reagan that big government is the problem, not the solution. Just seven percent (7%) say it’s the solution instead.

-- Is America overtaxed? Eighty-two percent (82%) of Republicans think so. Only 11% disagree. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 787 Likely Republican Voters was conducted on January 18-19, 2015 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Hillary’s Still The One for Most Democrats

The race to be the Democratic Party’s 2016 presidential nominee is still Hillary Clinton’s to lose.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey asked Likely Democratic Voters to choose among six of the early presidential hopefuls from their party as if their state primary were held right now. Clinton remains far and away the leader with 59% support. Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren is in second place, but she earns just 12% of the vote.

The remaining four candidates each get single-digit support: Vice President Joe Biden (6%), Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders (4%), former Virginia Senator Jim Webb (3%) and former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley (2%). Five percent (5%) like some other candidate, and nine percent (9%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 648 Likely Democratic Voters was conducted on January 18-19, 2015 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Clinton vs. Warren, and the Winner Among Democrats Is…

Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren is increasingly the favorite of left-leaning Democrats, but Hillary Clinton trounces her in a head-to-head matchup for their party’s 2016 presidential nomination. One-in-five Democratic voters, however, say they’ve never heard of Warren at this early stage of the game.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that Clinton beats Warren 62% to 22% among Likely Democratic Voters asked whom they would vote for if their state’s primary was held today. But 16% are undecided given those two choices only. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 648 Likely Democratic Voters was conducted on January 18-19, 2015 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Romney Leads the GOP Pack – For Now

Generally, at this stage of the game, it’s mostly about name recognition, and Mitt Romney, the Republican presidential nominee in 2012, is the leader in the race to be the party’s standard-bearer in 2016.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey asked Likely Republican Voters to choose among nine of the early Republican wannabes if their state primary were held right now, and Romney earns 24% support. Three candidates are closely grouped together for second place: former Florida Governor Jeb Bush at 13%, retired neurosurgeon and conservative columnist Ben Carson with 12% of the vote and Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker at 11%.

Earning single-digit support are Kentucky Senator Rand Paul (7%), New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (7%), Florida Senator Marco Rubio (5%) and former Texas Governor Rick Perry (5%). Four percent (4%) of GOP voters like some other candidate, and 12% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 787 Likely Republican Voters was conducted on January 18-19, 2015 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Bush vs. Romney, and the Winner Among GOP Voters Is…

For most voters, it’s the battle of the best-known last names on the Republican side. For many GOP voters, it’s the battle of the moderates seeking the party’s 2016 presidential nomination. Call it what you will: Right now, Mitt Romney holds a double-digit lead over Jeb Bush in a head-to-head matchup.

If the 2016 Republican presidential primary were held in their state right now and Romney and Bush were the only names on the ballot, 49% of Likely Republican Voters would choose the party’s 2012 presidential nominee, while 32% would opt instead for the former Florida governor. But a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that a sizable 19% are undecided given only these two candidates to choose from. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 787 Likely Republican Voters was conducted on January 18-19, 2015 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Voters Think GOP Needs A Fresh Face in 2016

Most voters – including Republicans – think the GOP should start fresh during the next presidential election. But a sizable number of voters also express concern about families from both sides of the political aisle holding too much influence.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 64% of Likely U.S. Voters believe Republicans should look for a fresh face to run for president in 2016. Just 10% think the GOP should promote a candidate who has run in the past. Twenty-five percent (25%) are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on December 28, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Republicans Aren't Thrilled by Another Bush Candidacy

GOP voters aren’t enthused about Jeb Bush running for president in 2016 and feel even more strongly that his family’s history in the White House makes him a less attractive candidate to vote for.

Just 33% of Likely Republican Voters nationwide believe Bush should run for president in 2016, according to a new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey. Just as many (34%) disagree, while another 33% are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on December 28, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Louisiana Senate Runoff: Cassidy (R) 56%, Landrieu (D) 40%

Republican Congressman Bill Cassidy still holds a double-digit lead over incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu going into tomorrow’s Louisiana Senate runoff.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Louisiana Voters shows Cassidy leading Landrieu by 16 points – 56% to 40%. Four percent (4%) are still undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters in Louisiana was conducted on December 2-4, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Clinton Still Leads Democrats, GOP Race Wide Open for 2016

Hillary Clinton remains the heavy favorite for her party’s presidential nomination in 2016, but the Republican race is still in flux less than two years before the election.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 62% of Likely Democratic Voters would choose Clinton if the 2016 Democratic presidential primary were held in their state today. U.S. Senator Elizabeth Warren from Massachusetts is a distant second with 17% support. Vice President Joe Biden draws seven percent (7%) of the vote, while former Virginia Senator Jim Webb and Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley are each the choice of just two percent (2%) of Democratic voters. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on November 20-21, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology. 

2014 Midterm Elections: How Did We Do in the Governor’s Races?

There were governor’s races in 36 states this fall, and as usual we polled them all. But as in the case of the Senate races, the ones that we determined were not competitive were only polled once or twice at most.

A couple states we didn’t revisit for this reason surprised us. Democratic nominee Anthony Brown seemed a shoo-in in July in deep blue Maryland, but Republican hopeful Larry Hogan picked up momentum in October and won instead. In Vermont, incumbent Democrat Peter Shumlin is ahead as we expected, but since neither candidate got more than 50% of the vote, the state legislature will make the final decision.

How Did We Do in the Senate Races?

There were 36 U.S. Senate races this year, and as usual most of them weren’t close and weren’t polled much, if at all. We pride ourselves on polling every race at least once, although we generally looked at ones that weren’t expected to be close only once or twice at most. That was a mistake in the case of Virginia where a popular Democratic incumbent ended up winning by less than a point.

But we clearly saw the Republican wave coming, although the margins in the races in some cases proved to be bigger than some of our final polls projected.

56% of GOP Voters Felt ‘Compelled’ to Vote Vs. 43% of Democrats

Republicans were the most enthusiastic voters this election cycle as the final results indicate. The economy and the overall competence of the government were the two most important issues for all voters.

Fifty-six percent (56%) of Likely Republican Voters say they felt more compelled to vote this year than in previous years, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey. Forty-one percent (41%) of GOP voters say they didn’t feel this way.

By comparison, just 43% of Democrats felt more compelled to vote this year, but 48% did not. Similarly, among voters not affiliated with either major party, 44% felt more motivated to vote versus 49% who didn’t share this motivation. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available onTwitter or Facebook.

The survey of 1,000 Likely U.S. Voters was conducted on November 4-5, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Governor Races Scramble Down to the Wire

While they may not determine which party controls the U.S. Senate, 2014’s gubernatorial races have provided plenty of excitement and will have significant consequences for their states.

Overall, there are 36 governor races this year, including nine Toss-Ups, five that Lean Republican, two that Lean Democrat, 11 that are Safe Republican, eight that are Safe Democrat and one that Leans Independent.

Connecticut Governor: Malloy (D) 48%, Foley (R) 47%

Does Connecticut Governor Dan Malloy have a chance to keep his job after all?

The final Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Connecticut Voters finds Malloy picking up 48% of the vote to Republican Tom Foley’s 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate in the race, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 977 Likely Voters in Connecticut was conducted on October 29-30, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Iowa Governor: Branstad (R) 55%, Hatch (D) 37%

Iowa Republican Governor Terry Branstad looks comfortably on his way to reelection next Tuesday.

This year’s final Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Iowa Voters shows Branstad with 55% of the vote to Democratic challenger Jack Hatch’s 37%. Three percent (3%) like another candidate in the race, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 990 Likely Voters in Iowa was conducted on October 28-30, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Alaska Governor: Walker (I) 50%, Parnell (R) 43%

Independent Bill Walker remains ahead of Republican Governor Sean Parnell in the final days of Alaska’s gubernatorial contest.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The survey of 887 Likely Voters in Alaska was conducted on October 27-30, 2014 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.