Election 2024: Trump 48%, Harris 46%

Former President Donald Trump continues to lead Vice President Kamala Harris, but the margin is now down to a mere two points.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, in a two-way matchup, 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for Trump, while 46% would vote for Harris. Three percent (3%) say they’d vote for some other candidate and another three percent (3%) are undecided. These findings show a closer race than a week ago, when Trump led by three points, with 49% to Harris’s 46%. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This is our first survey to reflect the impact of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s decision to suspend his campaign and endorse Trump. Before quitting the race, RFK Jr. was getting four percent (4%) of the vote.

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The survey of 1,893 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on August 22 and 25-28, 2024 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Trump’s lead is due to his eight-point advantage among independents, as he and Harris each get the same level of support from their own party, Trump with 82% of the Republican vote and Harris getting 82% of Democrats. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, however, Trump gets 49% to Harris’s 41%.

The so-called “gender gap” is not a major factor. Men favor Trump by a four-point margin (50% to 46%), while women voters split evenly, with 47% each for Trump and Harris.

Harris leads by five points (49% to 44%) among voters under 40, and also leads 51% to 47% among those 65 and older. Trump leads 51% to 43% among voters ages 40-64.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of whites, 28% of black voters, 48% of Hispanics and 56% of other minorities would vote for Trump, while 44% of whites, 67% of black voters, 45% of Hispanics and 32% of other minorities would vote for Harris.

Eighty-six percent (86%) of self-identified liberal voters would vote for Harris, while 76% of conservatives would vote for Trump. Among moderate voters, Harris gets 53% to Trump’s 40%.

Government employees favor Harris by a 21-point margin, 56% to 35%, while Trump leads 49% to 44% among private sector workers.

Breaking down the electorate by income categories, Harris leads among voters earning more than $100,000 a year, while Trump enjoys his biggest advantage among voters with annual incomes between $30,000 and $50,000.

Most voters don’t believe state officials have done enough to prevent voting by illegal immigrants or to stop outside groups from interfering in elections. 

The presidential contest between former Trump and Harris is neck-and-neck in five crucial battleground” states.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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