Election 2012

Georgia Primary: Gingrich 38%, Romney 26%, Santorum 20%, Paul 7%

Favorite son Newt Gingrich now holds a double-digit lead over his closest rival in the Georgia Republican Primary race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Georgia shows Gingrich with 38% support to former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney’s 26%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum now runs third with 20% of the vote, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul trails with seven percent (7%).  Three percent (3%) prefer another candidate, and six percent (6%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Georgia survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on March 1, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Massachusetts Senate: Brown (R) 49%, Warren (D) 44%

Massachusetts Senator Scott Brown, who won the 2010 special election to finish the term of the late Ted Kennedy, holds a modest lead over his expected Democrat challenger Elizabeth Warren in the first Rasmussen Reports’ look at his 2012 reelection bid in the Bay State.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Brown picking up 49% of the vote to Warren’s 44%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate in the race, while five percent (5%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Massachusetts was conducted on February 29, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

National GOP: Romney 40%, Santorum 24%, Gingrich 16%, Paul 12%

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, coming off his primary wins in Arizona and Michigan, has jumped to a 16-point lead over Rick Santorum in the battle for the Republican presidential nomination. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters shows Romney with 40% support to 24% for the former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania. This is Romney's biggest lead to date and the highest level of support any GOP candidate has earned in regular surveying of the race. Two weeks ago, it was Santorum 39%, Romney 27%. 

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich earns 16% support, closely followed by Texas Congressman Ron Paul at 12%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided. The new findings mark virtually no change in national support for Gingrich and Paul. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on February 29, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

OHIO: Santorum 33%, Romney 31%, Gingrich 15%, Paul 11%

The Republican Primary race in Ohio is one of the biggest prizes on Super Tuesday, and it’s now a tossup. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Primary Voters in Ohio, taken last night, shows former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum attracting 33% of the vote and Mitt Romney earning 31%. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is now in third place with 15% of the vote, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul runs last with 11% support. Two percent (2%) prefer another candidate, and eight percent (8%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

This Ohio survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on March 1, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

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54% in Wisconsin Oppose Recall of GOP Governor Walker

Most Wisconsin voters approve of the job embattled Governor Scott Walker is doing and oppose the effort to recall him from office before the next election.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that 52% of Likely Wisconsin Voters at least somewhat approve of Walker’s job performance to date, while 46% at least somewhat disapprove. These findings include 40% who Strongly Approve of how the Republican governor is doing and just as many (40%) who Strongly Disapprove. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Wisconsin was conducted on February 27, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

54% Think Romney Most Likely To Be GOP Nominee

Before the ballots are cast in crucial primaries today in Arizona and Michigan, voters nationwide by better than two-to-one predict that Mitt Romney, not Rick Santorum, has the best shot at the Republican presidential nomination.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 54% of Likely U.S. Voters think the former Massachusetts governor is most likely to win the GOP nomination. Santorum is a distant second, with 24% who believe he has the best chance of being the party’s nominee. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on February 24-25, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Michigan GOP Primary: Romney 38%, Santorum 36%

Front-runners Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum are in a virtual tie with the former Massachusetts governor up by just two points as the Michigan Republican Primary race comes down to the wire.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Michigan, taken Sunday night, finds Romney with 38% support to Santorum’s 36%. Texas Congressman Ron Paul and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich remain far behind with 11% and 10% of the vote respectively. One percent (1%) likes another candidate in the race, and five percent (5%) remains undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Michigan survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on February 26, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Montana: Romney 48%, Obama 41%

President Obama lost Montana to Senator John McCain in 2008 by a 50% to 47% margin. Now he draws even less support against the top two Republican hopefuls in the first Rasmussen Reports Election 2012 survey in the Treasure State.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide survey of Likely Voters in Montana shows former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney leading the president 48% to 41%. Seven percent (7%) prefer some other candidate in the race, while four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum picks up 45% of the vote to Obama’s 41%. Nine percent (9%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) remain undecided.

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Montana was conducted on February 22, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Arizona GOP Primary: Romney 42%, Santorum 29%

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has widened his lead over leading challenger Rick Santorum in the Arizona Republican Primary race with the vote just four days away.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Arizona Republican Primary Voters finds Romney leading Santorum 42% to 29%. The survey, taken after the last scheduled debate of the GOP candidates, finds Romney up three points and Santorum down two from a week ago when it was a 39% to 31% race.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich earns 16% support, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul trails with eight percent (8%), marking virtually no change for either man from the previous survey. Only one percent (1%) favors another candidate in the race, and three percent (3%) remain undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Arizona survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on February 23, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Michigan GOP Primary: Romney 40%, Santorum 34%

True to a primary season already marked by sudden and surprising ups and downs, Mitt Romney has jumped back into the lead in Michigan’s Republican Primary race. The vote’s on Tuesday.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Michigan shows Romney with 40% of the vote and former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum with 34%. The poll was conducted on Thursday night, following the last scheduled debate among the GOP candidates. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Michigan survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on February 23, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.  

Obama Tied With Romney, Santorum in Core Four States (FL, NC, OH, VA)

Four years ago, President Obama won a solid victory in the Electoral College by carrying the big swing states and adding a couple of states that had been in the Republican column for decades. As he seeks reelection, attention will likely focus on four key states—Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia.

Georgia Primary: Gingrich 33%, Santorum 28%, Romney 20%, Paul 9%

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich leads the pack in the first Rasmussen Reports survey of the Republican Primary race in his home state of Georgia. A new telephone survey of Likely Georgia Republican Primary Voters shows Gingrich with 33% support, followed by former Senator Rick Santorum at 28%. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney runs third with 20% of the vote, and Texas Congressman Ron Paul trails with nine percent (9%). Two percent (2%) like some other candidate in the race, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Virginia Senate: Allen (R) 46%, Kaine (D) 46%

The hotly contested U.S. Senate race in Virginia between two popular former governors remains a dead heat.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Old Dominion finds Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican George Allen both earning 46% support. Three percent (3%) prefers some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Virginia was conducted on February 21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Oklahoma Primary: Santorum 43%, Gingrich 22%, Romney 18%, Paul 7%

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum holds a two-to-one lead over his closest GOP rival in the first Rasmussen Reports survey of Oklahoma’s Republican primary race.

The latest statewide survey of Likely GOP Primary voters shows Santorum with 43% of the vote followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with 22% and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney at 18%. Texas Congressman Ron Paul draws seven percent (7%) support. Just two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate in the race, while seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Oklahoma survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on February 21, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Michigan Primary: Santorum 38%, Romney 34%

The Michigan Republican Primary is just a week away, and former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum is holding on to a small lead over former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in Michigan shows Santorum with 38% of the vote to Romney’s 34%. Well behind are Texas Congressman Ron Paul with 10% support and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at nine percent (9%). Only one percent (1%) prefers some other candidate in the race, while eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Michigan survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on February 20, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Obama Up Big In California Against Romney, Santorum

President Obama leads both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum by more than 20 points in California,  as nearly six-out-of-ten voters approve of the way he's handling his job.

New Rasmussen Reports data shows that if Romney is the Republican nominee, Obama leads 57% to 35%.

If Santorum becomes the GOP standard bearer, the president leads 58% to 30%.

President Obama leads Romney by 23 points among unaffiliated voters and Santorum by 34 points among the same group.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This California survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted February 8-16, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Obama Up Big In California Against Romney, Santorum

President Obama leads both Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum by more than 20 points in California,  as nearly six-out-of-ten voters approve of the way he's handling his job.
 
New Rasmussen Reports data shows that if Romney is the Republican nominee, Obama leads 57% to 35%.
 
If Santorum becomes the GOP standard bearer, the president leads 58% to 30%.
 
President Obama leads Romney by 23 points among unaffiliated voters and Santorum by 34 points among the same group.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This California survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted February 8-16, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Ohio GOP Primary: Santorum 42%, Romney 24%

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum continues to ride his polling momentum into Ohio where he leads Mitt Romney by nearly two-to-one in the first Rasmussen Reports survey of Republicans in the state.

The new statewide telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary voters shows Santorum picking up 42% of the vote to Romney’s 24%. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich draws 13% support, while Texas Congressman Ron Paul picks up 10%. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Ohio survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on February 15, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

New Mexico: Obama 55%, Santorum 37%

Despite the popularity of New Mexico’s new Republican governor and the closeness of its U.S. Senate race, President Obama far outdistances his two likeliest GOP challengers in Rasmussen Reports’ first look at the presidential contest in the state. 

A new telephone survey of Likely New Mexico Voters finds the president earning 55% of the vote against both Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney. Santorum picks up 37% support. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and four percent (4%) more are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Romney earns a similar 36% against the president, with five percent (5%) going for another candidate and five percent (5%) more undecided.

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This New Mexico survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on February 14, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

New Mexico Senate: Heinrich (D) 45%, Wilson (R) 43%

The first Rasmussen Reports survey of the U.S. Senate race in New Mexico shows a tight contest between former Republican Congresswoman Heather Wilson and her two likeliest Democratic challengers.

The statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Democratic Congressman Martin Heinrich picking up 45% of the vote against Wilson, who draws 43% support. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate in the race, while seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

If State Auditor Hector Balderas is the Democratic candidate, he and Wilson are tied at 44% each. Three percent (3%) prefer another candidate, and nine percent (9%) are undecided.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

This New Mexico survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on February 14, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.