Election 2012

Iowa: Cain 28% Romney 21% Paul 10%

Reflecting national trends, businessman Herman Cain has now jumped to the front of the Republican pack in Iowa.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Iowa caucus-goers shows that Cain is in front with 28% followed by former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney at 21%. Congressman Ron Paul is a distant third at 10% followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 9%, Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann at 8%, and Texas Governor Rick Perry at 7%. The sixth place finish for Perry is a sharp decline from early September when Perry was the frontrunner both nationally and in Iowa. (To see survey question wording, click here).

Former Senator Rick Santorum picks up 4% of the vote and former Governor Jon Huntsman is at 2%. Another 4% would prefer some other candidate and 8% are not sure.

Only one-third of the caucus-goers (32%) are certain of their vote and don’t expect to change their mind. Among these voters, 30% prefer Cain, 22% Romney, and 17% Paul.

Among those absolutely certain they will show up and participate in the caucus, Cain leads Romney 31% to 18%. Many have criticized the Cain campaign for not having a strong organization in Iowa which is seen as essential to turning out the vote. According to such conventional analysis, Cain might be at risk of raising expectations too high and then underperforming.

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The survey of 800 Likely Iowa Republican Caucus Participants was conducted on October 19, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Generic Republican 47%, Obama 43%

A generic Republican now leads President Obama by four points in a hypothetical 2012 match-up for the week ending Sunday, October 16.

Obama 43%, Romney 42%

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and President Obama continue to run virtually even in a hypothetical Election 2012 matchup as they have for the past several weeks. Herman Cain is now the only Republican who has any kind of lead over the president.

Cain 43%, Obama 41%

Whether Herman Cain’s surge in the polls is temporary or has staying power, he’s enjoying a big enough bounce to take a very slight lead over President Obama in a hypothetical 2012 matchup. At the moment, the Georgia businessman is the only Republican with a lead of any kind over Obama, although former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has held a similar advantage several times and is currently trailing the president by just two points.

Scott Rasmussen Interviews Herman Cain

An exclusive interview with GOP hopeful, Herman Cain.

Virginia: Obama Leads Perry by 10, Runs Even with Romney

In 2008, Barack Obama became the first Democrat to win Virginia’s Electoral College votes since the Beatles were a brand new act in America in 1964. However, an early look at the 2012 race in the Old Dominion suggests winning twice in a row is not a sure thing for the president.

The first Rasmussen Reports Election 2012 survey in Virginia shows that 46% of the state’s Likely Voters would cast a ballot for former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, while 45% would opt for President Obama. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, while five percent (5%) are undecided.

Obama 44%, Christie 43%

Few expect him to run, but New Jersey Governor Chris Christie is essentially even with President Barack Obama in an early look at a hypothetical Election 2012 matchup. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows that Obama earns 44% support in the matchup, while Christie attracts 43%. Six percent (6%) prefer a third option, and eight percent (8%) are undecided.

Virginia Senate: Kaine 46%, Allen 45%

One of the most closely watched 2012 U.S. Senate races – the showdown in Virginia – is virtually dead even.

Obama 39% Cain 34%

Herman Cain did well in last week’s GOP debate and won a decisive straw poll victory in Florida, but his numbers in a general election match-up against President Obama are little changed.

Plurality Says Romney Qualified To Be President, Voters Divided on Cain

Out of a list of five Republican candidates running for the White House in 2012, Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is the only one a plurality of all voters considers qualified for the job. But Republican voters tend to see three top candidates as qualified.

Election 2012: Generic Republican 46%, Obama 43%

A generic Republican candidate has fallen into a near tie with President Obama in a hypothetical 2012 election match-up for the week ending Sunday, September 25.

Obama 44%, Paul 34%

A month ago, they were neck-and-neck. Now President Obama has a 10-point lead over Texas Congressman Ron Paul in a hypothetical Election 2012 matchup.

Obama 48%, Bachmann 32%

Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann continues to fade in the latest hypothetical 2012 matchup with President Obama.

New Hampshire GOP Primary: Romney 39%, Perry 18%, Paul 13%

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is the runaway leader in the race for the 2012 Republican nomination in New Hampshire, home of next year’s first presidential primary.

GOP Voters Strongly Believe Perry, Romney Can Beat Obama in 2012

More than 80% of likely Republican Primary voters say it is likely Texas Governor Rick Perry and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney are likely to beat President Obama in the general election, but they are less confident about Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and Texas Congressman Ron Paul doing the same.

Election 2012: Generic Republican 47%, Obama 42%

A generic Republican candidate holds a five-point advantage over President Obama in a hypothetical 2012 election match-up for the week ending Sunday, September 18.  This is the 11th week in a row the Republican has led the incumbent.

Obama 46%, Perry 39%

Before he entered his first debate as a presidential candidate, Texas Governor Rick Perry was the Republican frontrunner and held a modest lead in a hypothetical matchup against President Obama. Perry was the target for all the other candidates in the two most recent GOP debates, however, and he now trails the president by single digits.

Bachmann Now Trails Obama by Double Digits

Congresswoman Michele Bachmann’s campaign for president has struggled since she won the straw poll vote in Ames, Iowa last month. Texas Governor Rick Perry entered the race at the same time and immediately became the primary alternative to former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

Pressure for Third-Party Candidate Comes From Those Who Want Less Federal Spending

Some people think there is room for a radical centrist presidential candidate who would hold views somewhere between the views of President Obama and whoever the Republicans nominate to oppose him.

Election 2012: Generic Republican 47%, Obama 42%

A generic Republican candidate holds a five-point advantage over President Obama in a hypothetical 2012 election match-up for the week ending Sunday, September 11.  This is the 10th week in a row the Republican has led the incumbent.