Election 2012

6% of GOP Voters Ready to Vote Third Party If Their Favorite Isn’t The Nominee

Texas Congressman Ron Paul at a debate Saturday night in New Hampshire refused to rule out a third party run for the presidency if he fails to win the Republican nomination. But there’s minimal support for a third party candidate among Republican voters even if their favorite candidate is not the nominee.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that six percent (6%) of Likely Republican Primary voters nationwide say they would vote for a third party candidate if the candidate they’re backing for the GOP nomination comes up short. Slightly more (8%) say they would vote for President Obama if that was the case. But 78% of these GOP voters plan to vote for the Republican candidate no matter what. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on January 4, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

GOP Voters View Romney As Strongest Obama Opponent, Paul the Weakest

Likely Republican primary voters nationwide now tend to see former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney as the strongest challenger to President Obama, but regardless of who wins their party's nomination, most of these voters are confident their candidate will win the White House in November.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of likely Republican primary voters shows that 44% believe Romney would be the strongest candidate against Obama in the general election this November. Far behind is former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who is seen that way by 17%. Fifteen percent (15%) believe former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum would be the strongest general election opponent, up from two percent (2%) in mid-December. No other candidate reaches double-digits, and 12% of voters are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on January 4, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

New Hampshire: Romney 42%, Paul 18%, Santorum 13%, Huntsman 12%

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is pulling away from the pack in New Hampshire as Tuesday’s first-in-the-nation primary nears. His nearest rival now trails him by more than 20 points.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters in New Hampshire finds Romney earning 42% support. Texas Congressman Ron Paul is a distant second with 18% of the vote, followed by former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, hot off his photo finish with Romney in the Iowa caucuses, at 13%. Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, who has focused his campaign efforts on New Hampshire, captures 12% support.

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This New Hampshire survey of 750 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on January 5, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Election 2012: Generic Republican 47%, Obama 43%

A generic Republican candidate now holds a four-point lead over President Obama in a hypothetical Election 2012 matchup.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey for the short holiday week ending Friday, December 30, finds that 47% of Likely U.S. Voters would support the generic Republican candidate if the presidential election were held today, while 43% would vote for Obama. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 3,000 Likely Voters was conducted December 26-30, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Voters See All GOP Hopefuls As Conservative, But Romney, Paul Least So

Voters identify all of the leading Republican presidential contenders as ideological conservatives but see Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, the leaders in polls going into today’s Iowa Caucuses, as the least conservative of the group. 

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 56% of Likely U.S. Voters regard Romney as at least somewhat conservative, including 14% who say he’s Very Conservative.  Twenty-six percent (26%) say Romney’s a moderate. Only nine percent (9%) think the former Massachusetts governor is somewhat or very liberal, and another nine percent (9%) aren’t sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Iowa Caucus: Romney 23%, Paul 22%, Santorum 16%

After months of volatility, Mitt Romney and Ron Paul remain the front-runners in Iowa for the third week in a row with the state’s Republican caucus just five days away.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely GOP caucus participants finds Romney with 23% support to Paul’s 22%. Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum has moved into third place with 16%, his best showing to date, closely followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Governor Rick Perry who earn 13% of the vote each.

This Iowa survey of 750 Likely Republican Caucus Participants was conducted on December 28, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

In Iowa, Romney Tops List for Second Choice Support

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney is leading in Iowa and he is also getting a bit more second choice support than other candidates.

Data released yesterday shows that Romney currently is on top in Iowa with 25% support followed by Texas Congressman Ron Paul at 20% and Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 17%. When asked in the same survey about their second choice, 16% pick Romney, 14% name Gingrich, 14% offer former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, and 13% say Texas Governor Rick Perry. Congresswoman Michele Bachmann is the second choice for 10%, Ron Paul for nine percent (9%) and Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman for four percent (4%).

Iowa: Romney 25% Paul 20% Gingrich 17%

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and Texas Congressman Ron Paul are leading the pack in Iowa with just two weeks to go until Caucus Day. But large numbers of voters remain uncommitted and lots could change between now and January 3.

The new Rasmussen Reports survey of Iowa caucus participants shows Romney on top with 25% of the vote followed by Paul at 20% and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 17%. Texas Governor Rick Perry and former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum, both at 10%, are the only other candidates in double-digits.  Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann earns six percent (6%), former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman four percent (4%), while one percent (1%) prefer some other candidate and eight percent (8%) are not sure.

Election 2012: Obama 45%, Generic Republican 44%

President Obama is now essentially tied with a generic Republican candidate in a hypothetical Election 2012 matchup for the week ending Sunday, Dec. 18. This is the closest margin between the two candidates in just over a month of weekly tracking.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds Obama earning 45% support -- matching the highest level yet for him -- while a generic Republican picks up 44% of the vote.

Iowa: Romney 23%, Gingrich 20%, Paul 18%, Perry 10%

For the fifth straight survey, the GOP field has a new frontrunner in Iowa.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Iowa Republican Caucus Participants shows former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney with 23% of the vote, only slightly ahead of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich who has 20%. Texas Congressman Ron Paul is right behind with 18% of the vote. Texas Governor Rick Perry earns 10% support, with no other candidate grabbing double-digits.

Iowa: Romney 23%, Gingrich 20%, Paul 18%

For the fifth straight survey, the GOP field has a new frontrunner in Iowa.  (video)

New Hampshire: Little Interest in Palin or Daniels Entering Race for GOP Nomination

With three weeks to go before the Iowa caucuses officially launch the 2012 election season, many analysts have suggested that there is still time for someone new to enter the race for the GOP nomination.  While there may still be time, there is currently little enthusiasm for a couple of the bigger names to jump into the field.

Election 2012: Generic Republican 47%, Obama 42%

A generic Republican candidate leads President Obama by five points in a hypothetical Election 2012 matchup for the week ending Sunday, December 11.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters finds the generic Republican earning 47% support to Obama's 42%.  Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted December 5-December 11, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Voters Like Romney Best, But GOP Voters Give Edge to Gingrich

Mitt Romney is still the Republican candidate that voters like the most, while Texas Governor Rick Perry remains the GOP hopeful they like the least. Among Republican voters, however, Romney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich are running neck-and-neck, but Gingrich has the edge when it comes to enthusiasm.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 53% of Likely U.S. Voters share at least a somewhat favorable opinion of Romney and 38% regard the former Massachusetts governor unfavorably.

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on December 8-9, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

42% Say GOP Candidates Paying Too Much Attention to Trump

Current front-runner Newt Gingrich is the latest Republican presidential hopeful to meet with billionaire developer Donald Trump who is scheduled to moderate a GOP debate later this month. But a sizable number of voters think Republican presidential candidates are paying too much attention to Trump, and an overwhelming majority say his endorsement would hurt a candidate in their eyes or have no impact.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook. 

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters nationwide was conducted on December 6-7, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

51% Think Cain Should End Campaign, 28% Disagree

Republican presidential hopeful Herman Cain is expected to make a major announcement in Atlanta today, and most voters think he should end his campaign.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 51% of Likely U.S. Voters believe Cain should end his bid for the GOP nomination. Twenty-eight percent (28%) disagree, and 21% are not sure. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.The national survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on December 2, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Election 2012: Generic Republican 48%, Obama 42%

A generic Republican candidate now holds a six-point advantage over President Obama in a hypothetical Election 2012 matchup.  This survey was conducted Nov. 21, 22 and 27.

Florida 2012: Romney 46%, Obama 42%

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney posts a slight lead over President Obama in the first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the presidential race in the key swing state of Florida.

Romney earns support from 46% of Likely Voters in the Sunshine State to Obama's 42%. Nine percent (9%) prefer some other candidate, while four percent (4%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is nearly tied with the president, with Obama posting a narrow 45% to 43% lead in this matchup. Eight percent (8%) like another candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.

This Florida survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on November 17, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

North Carolina: Generic Republican 44%, Obama 42%

Barack Obama managed to win North Carolina’s Electoral College votes by less than a percentage point in 2008. That was the first time a Democratic presidential candidate had won the state since 1976, and the Tar Heel State looks to be competitive once again.

New Rasmussen Reports polling data shows that a Generic Republican currently attracts support from 44% of Likely Voters in North Carolina, while President Obama picks up 42% of the vote.

Florida Senate: Mack (R) 43%, Nelson (D) 39%

Republican Congressman Connie Mack changed his mind late last month about challenging longtime Democratic Senator Bill Nelson in 2012, and now he finds himself with a modest edge over the incumbent in the first Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Florida’s U.S. Senate race.

The latest statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state shows Mack with 43% to Nelson’s 39%.

This Florida survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on November 17, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.