It would be a stretch to say that Joe Biden is in trouble. He is ahead in the polls, including in states where Donald Trump won last time. Unlike Trump, whose campaign is apparently nearly broke, Biden's campaign is raking in corporate donations.
Labor Day is in the rear-view mirror meaning that the presidential campaign is in full swing. With less than two months until the big day, the electoral winds appear to be blowing in President Trump’s direction.
What happens if, as seems much more likely now than it did a year or six months ago, Democrats overturn the Republican majority in the Senate?
Having presided over the recognition of Israel by the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, President Donald Trump has been nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize amid talk of peace breaking out across the region.
— The Trial-Heat and Convention Bump Forecasting Models have an excellent record for accurate predictions of the presidential elections going back to 1992.
— Forecasting models depend on applying electoral history to the current election, but 2020 is historically abnormal (at least, in the period since 1948).
— The greatest challenge for forecasting this year is in how the catastrophic second quarter GDP should be treated.
— Based on President Trump’s approval ratings, in general and on the economy, as well as the projected third quarter GDP growth rates, the forecasts should depend exclusively on the preference polls, and they point to another extremely close election.
Politicians shut down businesses because of COVID-19.
Good news: The anti-mask mandate movement is gaining steam. Americans yearning to breathe free are waking up from their pandemic stupor. Common sense and constitutional principles, now more than ever, are vital to a sovereign nation's health.
Joe Biden just can't get his story straight on his green energy promises.
In Pittsburgh, in front of union workers last month, he declared: "I am not banning fracking. Let me say that again. I am not banning fracking. No matter how many times Donald Trump lies about me."
"There is no... sound reason for the United States to continue sacrificing precious lives and treasure in a conflict not directly connected to our safety or other vital national interests."
The presidential campaign is at knife's edge. Both parties' campaigns assume that patterns of support will closely resemble those in 2016. And both are making surprisingly little effort, considering how close that contest turned out to be, with the 46 crucial electoral votes decided by just 77,744 votes, to increase their levels of support.
If Donald Trump loses the election, history will attribute his defeat to a pandemic that killed 200,000 Americans during his reelection campaign, and a historic depression deliberately induced to put the economy in a coma as the nation suffered through that pandemic.
In his acceptance speech at the Democratic National Convention, Joe Biden had this uninspiring assessment of America's current predicament: "The president keeps telling us the virus is going to disappear. He keeps waiting for a miracle. Well, I have news for him: No miracle is coming."
Front and center in the raging debate between liberals and progressives over whether they should support Joe Biden or opt out of the two-party trap by voting third party or not at all is the assumption that Biden would do less harm both to the world and to American leftism than Donald Trump.
To that nagging question, the answer increasingly seems to be yes.
When U.S. cities erupted after the death of George Floyd, D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser was in the vanguard of the protests, renaming a section of downtown Black Lives Matter Plaza, and painting the name in letters on the street so huge they could be seen from space.
Watch what people do, not what they say. Politicians who say one thing and do another are called hypocrites, but perhaps they have inside knowledge that the average person does not possess.
That the public is less confident in Biden’s chances than the polls could have a down-ballot impact; 14 House rating changes.
— Perceptions of the presidential race could have some impact down the ballot.
— Ticket-splitting is on the decline, but plenty of voters will vote for different parties for president and House, perhaps to the benefit of candidates from both parties.
— We are making 14 House rating changes, 10 in favor of Democrats and four in favor of Republicans. The changes don’t really impact our overall House assessment, which is that we are not expecting much net change in the makeup of the House.
The media obsess about Trump/Biden, but another candidate will be on every state ballot: Libertarian Party nominee Jo Jorgensen.
American workers across the wage scale are hurting. Small-business owners across the country are fighting for their survival. Young people face more uncertainty than ever about their futures and ability to put food on the table.
