If it's in the News, it's in our Polls. Public opinion polling since 2003.

Political Commentary

Most Recent Releases

White letter R on blue background
September 6, 2010

The Higher Education Bubble: Ready to Burst? By Michael Barone

Imagine that you have a product whose price tag for decades rises faster than inflation. But people keep buying it because they're told that it will make them wealthier in the long run. Then, suddenly, they find it doesn't. Prices fall sharply, bankruptcies ensue, great institutions disappear.

White letter R on blue background
September 5, 2010

Boxer, Fiorina and the Endless Recovery By Debra J. Saunders

At the end of Obamaland's Recovery Summer, Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer is betting that Californians want the federal government to keep growing.

White letter R on blue background
September 3, 2010

"Ladies Slug it Out" by Susan Estrich

That was the headline on Thursday's Drudge Report. And it is as good a summary as any of what happened Wednesday night when incumbent California Sen. Barbara Boxer met her challenger, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, in their first debate.

White letter R on blue background
September 3, 2010

Government Protects the Little Guy by Froma Harrop

Over a century ago, William Jennings Bryan presided over mass rallies of mostly middle-class Americans angry about economic inequities.

White letter R on blue background
September 3, 2010

The Business of America Is Business By Lawrence Kudlow

Corporate profits are at all-time highs, and bond rates in the Treasury market are virtually at record lows. That's a good combination for stocks, and it helped trigger a 255 point rally in Wednesday's trading. What's more, a surprisingly positive read on the ISM August manufacturing report delivered a strong blow to the double-dip recession pessimism that has plagued investors for many months.

White letter R on blue background
September 2, 2010

Down With Big Government, Big Business, Big Labor by Michael Barone

Some of the most important things in history are things that didn't happen -- even though just about everyone thought they would.

White letter R on blue background
September 2, 2010

Obama Delivers on His Iraq Promises by Debra Saunders

When then-Sen. Barack Obama visited the San Francisco Chronicle editorial board in 2008, I had one question for him: Which Democratic candidate for president would be best at keeping Iraq from imploding?

White letter R on blue background
September 2, 2010

Sixty Days To Go: The Crystal Ball's Labor Day Predictions By Larry J. Sabato

For decades I’ve advised students to let the facts speak for themselves, while avoiding the indulgence of shouting at the facts. In other words, we should take in all the available, reliable information; process it; and let the emerging mosaic tell its story—whether the picture pleases or not. The human (and partisan) tendency to twist facts into pretzels in order to produce a desired result must be avoided at all costs.

White letter R on blue background
September 1, 2010

The Generic Race by Susan Estrich

Gallup is out this week with a new poll showing the generic Republican beating the generic Democrat in House contests by 10 points.

White letter R on blue background
August 31, 2010

Mad Men in a Saner Time By Froma Harrop

"Mad Men" just won its third Emmy for "outstanding drama." If there were a gold statue for "best nostalgic portrayal," the AMC series would have walked off with that one, too. The allure and success of "Mad Men" is its stylish evocation of a lost era that many older Americans miss and younger ones envy.

White letter R on blue background
August 31, 2010

Obama Isn't Being Smart About Arizona By Debra J. Saunders

The latest CBS poll found that 59 percent of Americans view Arizona's SB1070, the immigration bill that allows Arizona to prosecute immigration violations, as "just right," while another 14 percent think the bill doesn't go far enough. So why does President Obama continue to hammer Arizona's law? And why did the State Department include a reference to the Arizona law in a report for the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights on America's human rights record?

White letter R on blue background
August 30, 2010

Boehner's Pro-Growth Message by Lawrence Kudlow

It's a bit too early for House Republican leader John Boehner to measure the drapes and pick out new wallpaper.

White letter R on blue background
August 27, 2010

Ready, Fire, Aim by Susan Estrich

House Minority Leader John Boehner has a brilliant idea.

White letter R on blue background
August 26, 2010

Incumbent Defeats By The Numbers By Larry J. Sabato

At the Crystal Ball we receive many requests for information about the history of congressional elections, and there are many ways to look at this topic. In the two simple bar graphs below, we present one way to conceptualize a key part of the contests for Congress. How many incumbents lose for the House and the Senate?

White letter R on blue background
August 26, 2010

The Mosque and the 'American Street' by Froma Harrop

The circus around the mosque should start to lose audience. New York officials have the authority to decide whether an Islamic center may be built near the tragic site of the attacks on the Twin Towers.

White letter R on blue background
August 26, 2010

Redistricting Could Prolong the Democrats' Pain By Michael Barone

Every 10 years, it's time for reapportionment and redistricting. The framers of the Constitution created the first regularly scheduled national census and required, for the first time that I am aware, that representation in a legislature be apportioned according to population.

White letter R on blue background
August 25, 2010

Prelude to Appeasement by Tony Blankley

Neoconservatives, Reaganites and other militarily assertive factions in the United States are sometimes accused of thinking it is always 1938 (Britain's appeasement of Hitler at Munich) -- that there is always a Hitler-like aggressor being appeased and about to drag the world into conflict.

White letter R on blue background
August 25, 2010

Leaving Home by Susan Estrich

For the past two weeks, I've been traveling across the country interviewing law students who have applied for jobs at my law firm.

White letter R on blue background
August 23, 2010

Stimulus and Health Care Have Democrats on Defensive By Michael Barone

Like many Democrats over the past 40 years, Barack Obama has hoped that his association with unpopular liberal positions on cultural issues would be outweighed by pushing economic policies intended to benefit the ordinary person.

White letter R on blue background
August 22, 2010

A Federal Law Against Lying By Debra J. Saunders

In 2005, Rep. John Salazar, D-Colo., sponsored the Stolen Valor Act that made it a federal crime to lie about receiving military medals or honors from the military.