If it's in the News, it's in our Polls. Public opinion polling since 2003.

Political Commentary

Most Recent Releases

White letter R on blue background
September 9, 2010

The Rich Are Not Here to Give Us Jobs by Froma Harrop

Let's cut the baloney about jobs and rich people's taxes.

White letter R on blue background
September 9, 2010

A Troubling Indicator for Both Parties? By Rhodes Cook

Virtually every leading political indicator points to a midterm election this November that could range anywhere from difficult to disastrous for Democrats.

White letter R on blue background
September 8, 2010

"Dissension in the Ranks?" by Tony Blankley

With the end of combat in Operation Enduring Freedom presidentially certified, all eyes rivet toward Afghanistan.

White letter R on blue background
September 8, 2010

Book Burning by Susan Estrich

Here's a really bad idea: Burn the Koran to send a message.

White letter R on blue background
September 7, 2010

Obama Gets Write-Offs Right by Lawrence Kudlow

It’s all midterm-election politics, but Obama’s last-minute idea for 100 percent tax write-offs for corporate investment is, in fact, a good idea.

White letter R on blue background
September 7, 2010

Parties Mean Little in Governors' Races by Froma Harrop

Professional partisans see every race as a mark on their team's scoreboard.

White letter R on blue background
September 6, 2010

The Higher Education Bubble: Ready to Burst? By Michael Barone

Imagine that you have a product whose price tag for decades rises faster than inflation. But people keep buying it because they're told that it will make them wealthier in the long run. Then, suddenly, they find it doesn't. Prices fall sharply, bankruptcies ensue, great institutions disappear.

White letter R on blue background
September 5, 2010

Boxer, Fiorina and the Endless Recovery By Debra J. Saunders

At the end of Obamaland's Recovery Summer, Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer is betting that Californians want the federal government to keep growing.

White letter R on blue background
September 3, 2010

"Ladies Slug it Out" by Susan Estrich

That was the headline on Thursday's Drudge Report. And it is as good a summary as any of what happened Wednesday night when incumbent California Sen. Barbara Boxer met her challenger, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, in their first debate.

White letter R on blue background
September 3, 2010

Government Protects the Little Guy by Froma Harrop

Over a century ago, William Jennings Bryan presided over mass rallies of mostly middle-class Americans angry about economic inequities.

White letter R on blue background
September 3, 2010

The Business of America Is Business By Lawrence Kudlow

Corporate profits are at all-time highs, and bond rates in the Treasury market are virtually at record lows. That's a good combination for stocks, and it helped trigger a 255 point rally in Wednesday's trading. What's more, a surprisingly positive read on the ISM August manufacturing report delivered a strong blow to the double-dip recession pessimism that has plagued investors for many months.

White letter R on blue background
September 2, 2010

Down With Big Government, Big Business, Big Labor by Michael Barone

Some of the most important things in history are things that didn't happen -- even though just about everyone thought they would.

White letter R on blue background
September 2, 2010

Obama Delivers on His Iraq Promises by Debra Saunders

When then-Sen. Barack Obama visited the San Francisco Chronicle editorial board in 2008, I had one question for him: Which Democratic candidate for president would be best at keeping Iraq from imploding?

White letter R on blue background
September 2, 2010

Sixty Days To Go: The Crystal Ball's Labor Day Predictions By Larry J. Sabato

For decades I’ve advised students to let the facts speak for themselves, while avoiding the indulgence of shouting at the facts. In other words, we should take in all the available, reliable information; process it; and let the emerging mosaic tell its story—whether the picture pleases or not. The human (and partisan) tendency to twist facts into pretzels in order to produce a desired result must be avoided at all costs.

White letter R on blue background
September 1, 2010

The Generic Race by Susan Estrich

Gallup is out this week with a new poll showing the generic Republican beating the generic Democrat in House contests by 10 points.

White letter R on blue background
August 31, 2010

Mad Men in a Saner Time By Froma Harrop

"Mad Men" just won its third Emmy for "outstanding drama." If there were a gold statue for "best nostalgic portrayal," the AMC series would have walked off with that one, too. The allure and success of "Mad Men" is its stylish evocation of a lost era that many older Americans miss and younger ones envy.

White letter R on blue background
August 31, 2010

Obama Isn't Being Smart About Arizona By Debra J. Saunders

The latest CBS poll found that 59 percent of Americans view Arizona's SB1070, the immigration bill that allows Arizona to prosecute immigration violations, as "just right," while another 14 percent think the bill doesn't go far enough. So why does President Obama continue to hammer Arizona's law? And why did the State Department include a reference to the Arizona law in a report for the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights on America's human rights record?

White letter R on blue background
August 30, 2010

Boehner's Pro-Growth Message by Lawrence Kudlow

It's a bit too early for House Republican leader John Boehner to measure the drapes and pick out new wallpaper.

White letter R on blue background
August 27, 2010

Ready, Fire, Aim by Susan Estrich

House Minority Leader John Boehner has a brilliant idea.

White letter R on blue background
August 26, 2010

Incumbent Defeats By The Numbers By Larry J. Sabato

At the Crystal Ball we receive many requests for information about the history of congressional elections, and there are many ways to look at this topic. In the two simple bar graphs below, we present one way to conceptualize a key part of the contests for Congress. How many incumbents lose for the House and the Senate?