Political Commentary

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January 21, 2012Romney's Opponents Look for the Spirit of '76 By Geoffrey Skelley
While Mitt Romney may very well be on his way to winning the GOP nomination, he is not completely out of the woods yet. With so many primaries and caucuses left to be decided, it is perfectly possible that other candidates will win some of the remaining states as long as they stay in the race. We only have to look at the party nomination struggles in 1976 to see how frontrunners who started fast ended up facing long, hard slogs to the nomination.
January 20, 2012Tax Day: Will Romney Make April Fools of Republicans By Joe Conason
Mitt Romney's latest flip-flop is almost complete. Having vowed a month ago not to release his federal income tax returns, the Republican presidential front-runner conceded during Saturday night's debate that he would "probably" release his returns, and then on Tuesday afternoon finally said he will do so -- in April, long after he is likely to have secured his party's nomination. With characteristic arrogance, he excused the delay by suggesting that April 15 is the traditional date when public officials supply this information, which is certainly true if you're already president.
January 20, 2012Voter Disgust: What Might it Mean for the House Race? By Kyle Kondik
We here at the Crystal Ball, and of course our readers, love politics. But Americans don’t, especially now: Congress is historically unpopular, and Americans are so sick of politics that more than two-thirds of them according to one survey wished the presidential campaign was over even before it officially started.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
                                
                
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                            January 20, 2012For Romney, Will Free Markets or Crony Capitalism Be on Trial? By Scott Rasmussen
When his tenure at the investment firm Bain Capital became an issue in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, Mitt Romney responded by saying he "was disappointed ... to see one of my opponents attacking free enterprise, just like the president was.”
January 19, 2012How "Downton Abbey" Is More Democratic Than We Are By Froma Harrop
Every Sunday night, the mega-carriages drop millions of us off at "Downton Abbey," the hit PBS series about an aristocratic family, its English country estate and the complexities of being Them at the dawn of the 20th century. We revel in the patricians' finery, their posture, their free time and their skill at draping the sharpest remarks in tempered rhetoric. And we marvel at their access to over a dozen specialized servants meeting every need. The servants live off the kitchen or with the horses.
January 19, 2012South Carolina Hoping to Pick Next President By Michael Barone
The crowd at the Fox News/Wall Street Journal debate in Myrtle Beach was feisty, with whoops and cheers for Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum and Rick Perry, though not so much for Ron Paul.
January 17, 2012Obama's Biggest Threat Was Huntsman By Froma Harrop
Politically astute Republicans, including many social conservatives, see Mitt Romney as the strongest candidate to beat President Obama in November. The former Massachusetts governor may not be their kind of Republican, but any Republican would be better than Obama, in their opinion. 
January 16, 2012Obama Thumbs Nose at Founders With One-man Rule By Michael Barone
Of course President Obama is not concentrating on campaigning, White House press spokesmen assured us -- as the president headed off to Chicago for three fundraisers and a drop-in at his campaign headquarters, two days after a high-roller fundraising choked off traffic five blocks from the White House, with the assistance of a score of D.C. police cars.
January 13, 2012The Missing 'Humanity Clause' at Bain By Froma Harrop
During the Great Depression, my father toiled in a box factory. The workers were all flat broke, he recalled, and desperate for every nickel. But when overtime hours appeared, the men made sure they went to a guy with kids. The laborers were obeying the unwritten and unenforceable "humanity clause," whereby one gives up some personal gain in deference to another's screaming need.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
                                
                
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                            January 13, 2012Tea Party Mitt? By Scott Rasmussen
The race for the 2012 GOP nomination has been properly characterized as one between two candidates: Mitt Romney and Nott Romney. Some describe it as a rift between the party establishment favoring Romney and the party base looking for someone else.
January 12, 2012'Tactical Voters' went to Romney in New Hampshire By Michael Barone
To win just under 40 percent of the vote in a primary with five
active candidates is pretty impressive, even for a candidate like Mitt
Romney, who started off with significant advantages in New Hampshire.   
January 12, 2012Ten Days to Stop Romney By Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley
Could Mitt Romney have scripted a better opening to campaign 2012?
First, he squeaked to victory by eight votes in Iowa -- or so the preliminary tally would suggest. Then he managed to meet expectations in New Hampshire with 39.3% and secured his preferred second place finisher, Ron Paul (23%). His main challenger in Iowa, Rick Santorum, finished far back at 9.4%.
January 10, 2012Consumer Bureau Protects the Prudent, as Well By Froma Harrop
Let's set aside the back-and-forth over the recess appointment of
Richard Cordray as chief watchdog at the new Consumer Financial Protection
Bureau. President Obama named the former Ohio attorney general to lead the
agency when the Senate was supposedly out of session, which he's allowed to
do.  
January 9, 2012The Weakness That Saps the Strength of GOP Candidates By Michael Barone
A presidential campaign exposes candidates' strengths and weaknesses. The strengths they're eager to tell you about. So let's look at the weaknesses.
Start with Rick Santorum, whose poll numbers in New Hampshire and South Carolina have been surging since (by last count) he lost the Iowa caucuses by the Chinese lucky number of 8 votes.
January 6, 2012Did Reagan Raise Taxes? Let GOP Candidates Answer By Joe Conason
Politicians and their flacks lie every day, but it is unusual for someone prominent to utter a totally indefensible falsehood like the whopper that just sprang from the mouth of Eric Cantor's press secretary on national television.
While interviewing the House majority leader, "60 Minutes" correspondent Leslie Stahl suggested that he might consider compromise because even Ronald Reagan had raised taxes several times. Cantor's flack then burst out in protest, saying he couldn't allow her remark "to stand."
January 5, 2012The Unbearable Consequence of Iowa By Froma Harrop
So Mitt Romney "won" Iowa by eight votes, giving him the "Big Mo" (that's momentum) as he marches forth into the primaries. What happened to Rick Santorum's surge? Did a Dodge Caravan full of supporters break down on the way to the gymnasium? I mean, world history has pivoted on less.
January 5, 2012Romney's Watchwords in Iowa: Divide and Conquer By Michael Barone
Elections are contests held during a moment in time between candidates who have records stretching back, often far back, into the past. So there is always a tension between the man (or woman) who is running and the moment.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                
                                
                
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                            January 3, 2012Romney, Paul on Top, But Read Iowa Caucus Polls With Caution
Scott Rasmussen takes a look at what the polling in Iowa suggests for today's caucuses and why polling for a caucus is much more difficult than polling for a primary or general election.
January 2, 2012'Nuts' to Iran By Froma Harrop
When the Germans told Gen. Anthony McAuliffe to surrender his forces in Belgium during World War II, the commander of the 101st Airborne Division famously replied, "Nuts!" The German officers didn't quite get his drift, which was "Go to hell."
January 2, 2012Steady in Iowa, Romney Counts on New Hampshire, Florida By Michael Barone
Election year has finally arrived, well after the beginning of a turbulent and unpredictable elections season, and voting begins on Tuesday in the Iowa Republicans caucuses.