Political Commentary

Most Recent Releases

October 24, 2024Rating Changes: Pushing House Toss-ups, Nebraska Senate to Leans Republican By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— We are pushing a few House Toss-ups out of that category this week, leaving revised ratings that show 212 House seats at least leaning Republican, 209 at least leaning Democratic, and 14 Toss-ups.
— Just like in the presidential race, there’s still no favorite in the House.
— We also are moving Sen. Deb Fischer’s (R-NE) race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican, as the Republican cavalry has had to ride in to help her in her contest against independent Dan Osborn.

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                            October 23, 2024Trump-mentum Peaking with the Autumn Leaves By Brian C. Joondeph
Election Day is rapidly approaching, and Donald Trump is teaching a master class in campaigning and peaking at the right time. Fortunately, he is still the Republican candidate despite efforts to remove him from the ballot through lawfare and several failed assassination attempts.

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                            October 23, 2024Play Time/Jail Time By John Stossel
What does it take for a parent to get arrested?

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                            October 22, 2024Vibes Turn Bad for Kamala Harris By Daniel McCarthy
Kamala Harris is running a campaign against herself.

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                            October 22, 2024Will Blacks and Hispanics Vote Their Pocketbooks? Trump Should Hope So! By Stephen Moore
In the one debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, the vice president attacked Trump for having a racist record, citing his statements in response to the protests In Charlottesville back in 2017.

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                            October 18, 2024Are Minorities Voting Increasingly Like Normies? By Michael Barone
Not everything significant politically is happening just in the target states.

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                            October 16, 2024Deceitful Promises By John Stossel
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris keep making new promises.

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                            October 15, 2024Kamala Harris Wants America to Have the World's Highest Death Tax By Stephen Moore
Here is something no one in the media is reporting as Vice President Kamala Harris continues to duck and weave like Muhammad Ali in the ring to avoid any questions about her economic plan.

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                            October 11, 2024What the Census Can Tell Us About Swing States By Michael Barone
Jonathan Draeger, reporter for RealClearPolitics, wrote Tuesday that "the 2024 presidential contest couldn't be tighter." Unless, of course, it turns out not to be nearly as close as this season's run of polls suggests it is.
October 10, 2024Places to Watch, Part Two: The Sun Belt By J. Miles Coleman
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— In North Carolina, Kamala Harris seems likely to gain in suburban Cabarrus County but may have to watch rural counties like Wilson.
— While it is not the most likely case, two Georgia counties that have trended in the opposite direction, Fayette and Sumter, could both conceivably flip.
— While Phoenix’s Maricopa County dominates Arizona, raw vote margins in a trio of its other large counties have proved predictive.
— In Nevada, Las Vegas and Reno predominate.

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                            October 9, 2024The Cost of Free Money By John Stossel
Some politicians and activists are eager to give you "free" money.

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                            October 8, 2024Climate Change Danger – Truth or Misinformation? By Brian C. Joondeph
Climate change continues to be a hot election issue, at least for Democrats.
At the recent vice-presidential debates, one of Republican J.D. Vance’s several debate opponents, CBS’s Norah O’Donnell, when asking about Hurricane Helen, started not with disaster relief, but the usual Democrat canard of climate change: “Scientists say climate change makes these hurricanes larger, stronger and more deadly because of the historic rainfall.”
Is this the important issue Democrats claim it to be?
Pew Research ranked climate change 10th on a list of 10 top issues for voters in the 2024 election.

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                            October 8, 2024How Donald Trump Can Win the Popular Vote By Daniel McCarthy
Democrats should brace for a shock four weeks from now -- the possibility not just of a victory for former President Donald Trump but a win so big Trump even beats Vice President Kamala Harris in the popular vote.

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                            October 4, 2024The Vice Presidential Debate May Matter By Michael Barone
Vice presidential debates don't matter, we have been assured over and over. No one votes for vice president or a presidential nominee for her or his choice of running mate. You can go back and look at snap polls taken after past vice presidential debates and find basically zero correlation with the final election results.
October 3, 2024Abortion Rights, Elections, Criminal Justice, and Much More: The 2024 State Ballot Issues to Watch By Louis Jacobson
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— This year, 41 states have at least one measure on the ballot for voters to weigh in on, and many have multiple measures.
— The highest-profile issue on the ballot this year—as was the case in 2022 and 2023—is abortion. In all, 10 states have pro-abortion rights measures on the ballot, including such purple and red states as Arizona, Florida, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, and South Dakota. Nebraska also has an anti-abortion measure on the ballot.
— Voters will also be asked about a wide range of election-related issues, including ranked-choice voting, redistricting and non-citizen voting. Other common topics involve proposals on criminal justice, raising the minimum wage, recreational marijuana, and education policy.

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                            October 1, 2024Iran Targets America's Elections -- and Trump By Daniel McCarthy
A tyrannical foreign regime is doing everything in its power to place its favored candidate in the White House.

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                            October 1, 2024Can We All Get Along? Yes, By Letting the States Decide. By Stephen Moore
At the time of this writing, the outcome of the presidential race is pretty close to being a coin flip. So what I write is not in any way influenced by who will win in November, since that is unknowable.

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                            September 27, 2024Harris’s Ghosts from Polling Past By Brian C. Joondeph
In Charles Dickens’s classic “A Christmas Carol,” curmudgeon Ebenezer Scrooge is visited by Christmas past, present, and future ghosts, transforming him into a kinder and more generous soul.

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                            September 27, 2024The Harris Campaign Might Need to Change Its Strategy By Michael Barone
In my time as a political consultant, I observed that carrying out a campaign strategy was surprisingly simple. You settled on a basic strategy, emphasizing the candidate's strong points on issues and character, framing the election in terms favorable to most voters. Then you just carried it out.
September 26, 2024Places to Watch, Part One: The Industrial North By J. Miles Coleman
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— While the 7 Toss-up states on our current Electoral College map will have outsized importance nationally, each of those states has several key counties that we will be watching.
— In this article, we’ll be isolating a few counties from the “Blue Wall” states that could tell the tale of the 2024 election.
— In Wisconsin, Ozaukee County is the bluest of the “WOW” counties while Door County has been a great bellwether in recent cycles.
— To win back Michigan, Donald Trump would probably like to flip back Saginaw County and keep the Cherry Coast red.
— In Pennsylvania, Kamala Harris may be poised to narrow Trump’s margin in Cumberland County, although we are curious how she’ll fare in Joe Biden’s native Lackawanna County.