Political Commentary

Most Recent Releases

November 14, 2024The State-Level Differences Between the Presidential and Senate Races By J. Miles Coleman
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— Split outcomes between presidential and Senate results saw a resurgence in 2024, as at least four Donald Trump-won states sent Democrats to the Senate.
— Republicans still took the majority in the Senate because while Sens. Jon Tester (D-MT) and Sherrod Brown (D-OH) performed notably better than Kamala Harris, they did not do so by enough to hold their seats.
— Across most key Senate races, Senate Democrats ran better than Harris in rural parts of their states but were comparatively weak in some suburban counties.
— In one of Harris’s best states, Maryland, former Gov. Larry Hogan (R-MD) stood out as Republicans’ top overperformer, although Harris’s 26-point margin in the state was too much for him to overcome.

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                            November 14, 2024How Did the Polls Perform? Winners and Losers By Brian C. Joondeph
Election 2024 is in the rearview mirror. Pollsters won’t be bombarding voters with phone or email polls. Today’s entertainment is liberal heads exploding on social media or the latest Democrat threatening but not actually following through on everything from drinking cyanide to setting themselves on fire or leaving the country if Donald Trump won the election.

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                            November 13, 2024Kids Need Freedom By John Stossel
I often report on fake "crises" pushed by media.
November 12, 2024Climate Change Was the Big Election Loser By Stephen Moore
A few days before last week's election, Bernie Sanders issued a dire warning to voters: "If Donald Trump is elected, the struggle against climate change is over."

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                            November 12, 2024Democrats Are at a Dead End, Unless They Learn From Trump By Daniel McCarthy
Shocked by Donald Trump's sweeping victory, Democrats are playing the blame game, and Joe Biden is the scapegoat.
November 8, 2024What You Didn't Hear About on Election Night: The Other 43 States By Michael Barone
Here are some observations on what you didn't hear on election night. Most networks' focus was, quite properly, on whether former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris would carry enough of the 93 electoral votes of the seven target states -- Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin -- to win the needed 270 electoral votes. Public polling, as reported and analyzed by websites such as RealClearPolitics and Silver Bulletin, had Trump ahead in most of the target states, but by microscopic percentages, and polling in both the 2016 and 2020 cycles had understated the percentages Trump ended up winning.

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                            November 6, 2024The Best of Life By John Stossel
I write this on Election Day.

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                            November 5, 2024Thank God for the Electoral College By Stephen Moore
It seems that as more and more time goes by, my appreciation for the ingeniousness of our Founding Fathers elevates.

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                            November 5, 2024How Politics Hasn't Changed Since Jefferson By Daniel McCarthy
The most extreme accusations Democrats and Republicans hurl at one another today would be familiar to the Founding Fathers.
November 5, 2024Our Final 2024 Ratings By Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and J. Miles Coleman
We mentioned a few weeks ago that we misplaced our Crystal Ball. As an update, we regret to say that we still have not found it. So no final ratings this year. Have fun on Tuesday!
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OK, fine, we’ll give it a try.

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                            November 1, 2024Who Will Make the Last Mistake in This Flawed Campaign? By Michael Barone
"The only garbage I see out there is his supporters," said President Joe Biden on Tuesday evening, referencing a comedian's comment at former President Donald Trump's Madison Square Garden rally, as Vice President Kamala Harris delivered on the Ellipse, visible from the White House windows, what her campaign has described as her "closing argument" speech of her campaign.

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                            October 30, 2024Less Than a Week Until the Big Day – Where are the Polls? By Brian C. Joondeph
Election 2024 is less than a week away. Media reports, particularly on social media, are in a gaslighting frenzy of fake news and misinformation. It is hard to know what to believe and what is nonsense. Opinion polls, while hardly perfect, at least provide a quantitative peek behind the electoral curtain.

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                            October 30, 2024Promoting Panic for Cash By John Stossel
The world must be getting so much worse!

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                            October 29, 2024Dead Wrong Again -- Nobel Economists Put Partisanship Over Economic Common Sense By Stephen Moore
You may have heard that last week 24 Nobel economists wrote that Vice President Kamala Harris' economic plan would be better for America than the Trump agenda. The joint letter was spearheaded by the hyperpolitical Joseph Stiglitz. Yes, the same Joe Stiglitz who infamously flew to Caracas to endorse Hugo Chavez's economic policies in 2007.

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                            October 29, 2024Kamala Harris Targets Married Women By Daniel McCarthy
Kamala Harris is pioneering a new divide-and-conquer strategy to win the White House: She's dividing families -- encouraging wives to split from husbands at the ballot box.

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                            October 25, 2024The Democratic Party's Bad October By Michael Barone
Was it just a coincidence that Vice President Kamala Harris showed up, 15 minutes late, to be interviewed by Fox News' Bret Baier a day before Nate Silver's poll aggregation website showed her chances of winning the election slipping below 50%? Probably not.
October 24, 2024Rating Changes: Pushing House Toss-ups, Nebraska Senate to Leans Republican By Kyle Kondik and J. Miles Coleman
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— We are pushing a few House Toss-ups out of that category this week, leaving revised ratings that show 212 House seats at least leaning Republican, 209 at least leaning Democratic, and 14 Toss-ups.
— Just like in the presidential race, there’s still no favorite in the House.
— We also are moving Sen. Deb Fischer’s (R-NE) race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican, as the Republican cavalry has had to ride in to help her in her contest against independent Dan Osborn.

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                            October 23, 2024Trump-mentum Peaking with the Autumn Leaves By Brian C. Joondeph
Election Day is rapidly approaching, and Donald Trump is teaching a master class in campaigning and peaking at the right time. Fortunately, he is still the Republican candidate despite efforts to remove him from the ballot through lawfare and several failed assassination attempts.

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                            October 23, 2024Play Time/Jail Time By John Stossel
What does it take for a parent to get arrested?

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                            October 22, 2024Vibes Turn Bad for Kamala Harris By Daniel McCarthy
Kamala Harris is running a campaign against herself.