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Commentary by Michael Barone

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January 3, 2013

If Demography Is Destiny, Good News for Texas, D.C. By Michael Barone

Demographics buffs get a special Christmas present every year courtesy of the Census Bureau: its annual estimates of the populations of the 50 states and the District of Columbia.

This gives demographers a chance to see where the nation is growing and where it is not, and to get an idea of the destination of immigrants and of the flow of people into one set of states and out of another.

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December 31, 2012

When Government Offers to Help, It Often Makes a Mess By Michael Barone

There's a natural human impulse to help people who need a hand. In the political world, that often translates to an impulse to have government help people who need a hand. Who wants to argue with that?

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December 27, 2012

Obama's Numbers Went Down, but Romney Never Inspired Voters to Vote By Michael Barone

In combing through the results of the 2012 election -- apparently finally complete, nearly two months after the fact -- I continue to find many similarities between 2012 and 2004, and one enormous difference.

Both of the elections involved incumbent presidents with approval ratings hovering around or just under 50 percent facing challengers who were rich men from Massachusetts (though one made his money and the other married it).

In both cases, the challenger and his campaign seemed confident he was going to win -- and had reasonable grounds to believe so.

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December 24, 2012

Here Comes the Cliff By Michael Barone

Last week, Republicans proved they are not a governing party. Next week we will see whether Democrats are.

A governing party would have, reluctantly, passed Speaker John Boehner's Plan B, which would have preserved the current tax rates on everyone with incomes under $1 million.

Passage would have put Senate Democrats on the spot, since they voted for a similar measure in 2010. They might have engaged in negotiations with Boehner that could have been more productive than his negotiations with Barack Obama this month and in the summer of 2011.

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December 20, 2012

Tim Scott and Daniel Inouye Show a Better America By Michael Barone

On Monday, the U.S. Senate got its newest member and lost its most senior member.

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December 17, 2012

While Feds Dawdle, States Tackle Fiscal Problems By Michael Barone

Democrats in Washington declare that they will absolutely, positively allow no changes whatever in the nation's unsustainable entitlement programs -- Social Security and Medicare.

But out in the states, politicians of both parties aren't averting their gaze from impending fiscal crises. They are working to change policies that put state governments on an unsustainable trajectory.

The most obvious example was the passage of a right-to-work law last week in Michigan, the birthplace of the United Auto Workers union.

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December 13, 2012

Fiscal Cliff Creates Problems That Don't Faze Obama By Michael Barone

Is Barack Obama bluffing when he threatens to go over the fiscal cliff if Republicans refuse to agree to higher tax rates on high earners?

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December 10, 2012

Mexican Migration May Be Over By Michael Barone

Is mass migration from Mexico to the United States a thing of the past? At least for the moment, it is. Last May, the Pew Hispanic Center, in a study based on U.S. and Mexican statistics, reported that net migration from Mexico to this country had fallen to zero from 2005 to 2010.

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December 3, 2012

Men Find Careers in Collecting Disability By Michael Barone

Americans are very generous to people with disabilities. Since passage of the Americans With Disabilities Act in 1990, millions of public and private dollars have been spent on curb cuts, bus lifts and special elevators.

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November 29, 2012

The Tyranny of Good Intentions at U.S. Colleges By Michael Barone

In 1902, journalist Lincoln Steffens wrote a book called "The Shame of the Cities." At the time, Americans took pride in big cities, with their towering skyscrapers, productive factories and prominent cultural institutions.    

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November 26, 2012

States Choose Own Paths With One-party Governments By Michael Barone

In Washington, Americans have two-party government, with a Democratic president and Senate and a Republican House. We had it before November's election and will have it again for the next two years.

Looking back from 2014, we will have had two-party government for most of the preceding two decades, for six years of Bill Clinton's presidency, three and a half years of George W. Bush's and four years of Barack Obama's.

But in most of the 50 states, American voters seem to have opted for something very much like one-party government.

Starting next month, Americans in 25 states will have Republican governors and Republicans in control of both houses of the state legislatures. They aren't all small states, either. They include about 53 percent of the nation's population.

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November 22, 2012

Dems Have Edge, but Presidency Still in Play By Michael Barone

A funny thing happened as I was looking at the political map of this year's presidential election: It began to look like the map of the presidential election of 2004.

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November 15, 2012

To Win, Obama Sacrifices House, State Legislatures By Michael Barone

Barack Obama attended more than 200 fundraisers for his presidential campaign, but he refrained from raising money for congressional Democrats.

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November 12, 2012

Obama Wins by Going Negative and Turning Out Base By Michael Barone

Lukewarm. That's the feeling I get from the election numbers.

Turnout was apparently down, at least as a percentage of eligible voters. The president was re-elected by a reduced margin. The challenger didn't inspire the turnout surge he needed.

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November 6, 2012

America Is Two Countries, Not on Speaking Terms By Michael Barone

You know who won the election (or whether we face another Florida 2000), and as I write I don't. 

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November 5, 2012

Going Out on a Limb: Romney Beats Obama, Handily By Michael Barone

Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That's bad news for Barack Obama. True, Americans want to think well of their presidents, and many think it would be bad if Americans were perceived as rejecting the first black president.

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October 29, 2012

Changing Demographics Won't Mean the End of Republican Party By Michael Barone

When reading one of the endless stories about a just-released poll Thursday night, a pair of numbers struck my eye: 60 and 37.

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October 25, 2012

Affluent Suburbs Swing to Debate-tested Romney By Michael Barone

Back in May, I wrote a column laying out possible scenarios for the 2012 campaign different from the conventional wisdom that it would be a long, hard slog through a fixed list of target states like the race in 2004.

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October 22, 2012

If Obama Wins, Will He Be Another Woodrow Wilson? By Michael Barone

How will this election be seen in history? Obviously, it depends on who wins. If Barack Obama is defeated, the irresistible comparison will be with Jimmy Carter. A one-term president was rejected after pursuing big government programs amid high energy prices and attacks on America in the Middle East.

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October 18, 2012

To More and More Women, Romney Is the Safer Choice By Michael Barone

An interesting story from last winter: An email friend who lives in an affluent suburb far from Washington, a staunch Republican, was watching one of the Republican debates with his wife, a staunch Democrat.