If it's in the News, it's in our Polls. Public opinion polling since 2003.

Commentary by Michael Barone

Most Recent Releases

White letter R on blue background
July 7, 2015

Redistricting Not Worth the Verbal Footwork By Michael Barone

"Words mean what they say," I wrote in my Washington Examiner column one week ago. But, as I added, not necessarily to a majority of justices of the Supreme Court. The targets of my column were the majority opinions in King v. Burwell and Texas Department of Community Affairs v. The Inclusive Communities Project.

In King v. Burwell, Chief Justice Roberts interpreted the words "established by the state" in the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (aka Obamacare) as meaning "established by the state or the federal government," even though the law itself defines "state" as the 50 states and the District of Columbia.

White letter R on blue background
July 3, 2015

Patriotism, Optimism and Good-Natured Debate by Michael Barone

The Fourth of July is a time to remember Americans who have contributed much to their country, and this Fourth weekend is a good time to remember two such Americans who died in recent weeks -- and whom I'd had the good fortune to know and joust with intellectually since the 1970s -- Allen Weinstein and Ben Wattenberg.

White letter R on blue background
June 30, 2015

Supreme Court Lets Obama Administration Say Words Don't Mean What They Say By Michael Barone

For most people, words mean what they say. But not necessarily for a majority of Supreme Court justices in two important decisions handed down Thursday.

In the most prominent, King v. Burwell, Chief Justice John Roberts, writing for a 6-3 majority, ruled that the words "established by the state" mean "established by the state or the federal government."

White letter R on blue background
June 26, 2015

Facing a Changing World Balance, Obama Makes Odd Choices by Michael Barone

Is the world back to where it was around the year 1800? One could come to that conclusion after reading British historian John Darwin's recent book "After Tamerlane," which assesses the rises and falls of empires after the death in 1405 of the famously bloodthirsty Muslim Mongol monarch.

White letter R on blue background
June 23, 2015

Clinton's Weakness in Important States By Michael Barone

Hillary Clinton has relaunched her campaign on Roosevelt Island with a 4,687-word speech. But it's not clear whether she and her husband, Bill Clinton, can win four presidential elections as Franklin D. Roosevelt did.

White letter R on blue background
June 19, 2015

Foreign Policy Downplayed in Jeb and Hillary Announcement Speeches By Michael Barone

American presidents have greater leeway on foreign policy than on domestic issues. Just see how President Obama is forging ahead to an agreement with Iran opposed by large majorities in Congress and among voters.   

White letter R on blue background
June 16, 2015

Obama Fails to Pass Trade Bill Backed By Majorities in Both Houses By Michael Barone

Lyndon Johnson used to say that some of his colleagues were so politically inept they couldn't find their posteriors -- actually, he used a coarser word -- with both hands. Last week Barack Obama showed that, as a legislative strategist, he belongs in that category. 

White letter R on blue background
June 12, 2015

In Turkey and Mexico, Voters try to Strengthen Electoral Democracy By Michael Barone

Another election, another surprise. Actually, two elections, in two countries last weekend, with surprisingly pleasant surprises. And in two very large countries: Turkey (population 82 million) and Mexico (119 million), both very important to the United States.   

White letter R on blue background
June 9, 2015

Hillary Clinton's Slide in Polls Leaves Her Vulnerable by Michael Barone

Despite everything, the often interesting analyst Jamelle Bouie writes in Slate -- "everything" includes "the email controversy, foreign donors and the Clinton Foundation" -- "Hillary is in good shape." Good enough to leave her party "still positioned for victory."

White letter R on blue background
June 5, 2015

Are We In for Another High-Crime Era After the Response to Ferguson and Baltimore? by Michael Barone

Are we seeing a reversal of the 20-year decline in violent crime in America? A new nationwide crime wave?

White letter R on blue background
June 2, 2015

Is it Time for Civil Disobedience of Kludgeocratic Bureaucracy? By Michael Barone

Is there any way to reverse the trend to ever more intrusive, bossy government? Things have gotten to such a pass, argues Charles Murray, that only civil disobedience might -- might -- work. But the chances are good enough, he says, that he's written a book about it: "By the People: Rebuilding Liberty Without Permission."  

White letter R on blue background
May 29, 2015

Colleges and Universities Have Grown Bloated and Dysfunctional by Michael Barone

American colleges and universities, long thought to be the glory of the nation, are in more than a little trouble. I've written before of their shameful practices -- the racial quotas and preferences at selective schools (Harvard is being sued by Asian-American organizations), the kangaroo courts that try students accused of rape and sexual assault without legal representation or presumption of innocence, and speech codes that make campuses the least rather than the most free venues in American society.

White letter R on blue background
May 27, 2015

How the World Has Changed Since World War I By Michael Barone

Over the past year, I've been reading books inspired by the centenary of World War I, a war with horrific casualties painful to contemplate. What helps in comprehending the scale of the slaughter is a book by one of Bill Gates' favorite authors, the Canadian academic Vaclav Smil, "Creating the Twentieth Century: Technical Innovations of 1867-1914 and Their Lasting Impact."

Smil leads the reader through the invention and development of electricity, oil production and distribution, the automobile, steelmaking, the telephone, the airplane and the production of synthetic ammonia -- to his mind the most important because without it agriculture couldn't feed the world's 6 billion people.

White letter R on blue background
May 22, 2015

Can Hillary Clinton Reverse the Six-Year Decline in Democratic Turnout? by Michael Barone

Bill Clinton won the presidency in 1992 by running as a different kind of Democrat from previous nominees. Hillary Clinton, Anne Gearan of The Washington Post reports, is hoping to win the presidency in 2016 by running as the same kind of Democrat as the current incumbent.

White letter R on blue background
May 19, 2015

The Two-Point-Something Campaign by Michael Barone

This spring it seems as if there have been two-point-something Republican presidential candidacy announcements per week. And, since she made her own announcement April 12, Hillary Clinton has answered an average of about two-point-something questions from the press each week.

White letter R on blue background
May 15, 2015

British Pollsters Failed in the Increasingly Difficult Struggle to Get it Right by Michael Barone

The world may have a polling problem. That's the headline on a blogpost by Nate Silver, the wunderkind founder of FiveThirthyEight. It was posted on 9:54 ET the night of May 7, as the counting in the British election was continuing in the small hours of May 8 UK Time.

White letter R on blue background
May 12, 2015

Big surprise in Britain: Conservatives Beat Labour --- and the Polls By Michael Barone

Big surprises in Thursday's British election. For weeks, the pre-election polls showed a statistical tie in popular votes between Prime Minister David Cameron's Conservative Party and the Labour opposition led by Ed Miliband. It was universally agreed that neither party could reach a 326-vote majority in the House of Commons. A prominent British political website projected that Conservatives would get 280 seats and Labour 274.

White letter R on blue background
May 8, 2015

Why Americans Oppose Economic Redistribution Despite Income Inequality by Michael Barone

Skeptics about democracy in the 18th and 19th centuries argued that the enfranchised masses would use their votes to seize the property of the relatively few rich. What could be more natural?

White letter R on blue background
May 5, 2015

Clinton Defenders Advance an Unpersuasive Argument By Michael Barone

Some of Hillary Clinton's defenders have taken to saying that voters shouldn't pay attention to the latest Clinton scandals -- the gushing of often undisclosed millions to the Clintons and their organizations by characters seeking official favors -- because the charges are just one more in a long series: Whitewater, the Rose law firm billing records, the Buddhist temple fundraising, the Lippo Group.   

White letter R on blue background
May 1, 2015

America's Politics Is Polarized, But Britain's Is Fragmented by Michael Barone

Next week, Britain votes in its first general election in five years. Some aspects of its politics will be familiar to Americans. Polls show voters are dissatisfied with politicians of both parties, cynical about whether they will keep their promises and closely divided between two major parties, which have been in existence for more than 100 years.