The Trade War’s Risks for Trump By Louis Jacobson
Agriculture and manufacturing are significant industries in 2020’s most important states.
KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE
— Farmers and manufacturers account for a particularly large share of the economy in key battleground states, including ones that President Donald Trump won in 2016 and would need to win again in 2020 to secure a second term.
— However, the farm and factory sectors are facing economic strains from Trump’s trade policies. Agricultural output declined between 2017 and 2018 in all but one battleground state, and while manufacturing output increased in these states across the board between 2017 and 2018, it showed signs of slowing in most states during the first quarter of 2019.
— That said, anecdotal evidence suggests that cultural issues are outweighing economic factors, with these solidly Republican demographic groups sticking with the GOP, at least for now.
