Commentary by Larry J. Sabato

Republican Chances of Senate Takeover Are Improving By Larry J. Sabato and Kyle Kondik

The race for the Senate is perceptively moving in the Republicans’ direction, but not so dramatically that we’re ready to call the race definitively for them.

While we’ve long said the 2014 map and midterm dynamics make a GOP takeover of the Senate a probable outcome, there are just too many close races left and more than a month to go, when big gaffes, unexpected legal actions, and national events can potentially flip a Senate seat or two.

What Is a Wave in the Senate? By Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley

For several months, we’ve held steady on our range of expected gains for Republicans in the Senate: a net of four to eight seats. With Labor Day in the rearview mirror and with less than 55 days to go until the midterms, we’re giving Republicans a slight bump: Our new range is a Republican net of five to eight Senate seats.

This means that the best-case scenario we can now envision for Democrats is a 50-50 tie in the Senate, with Vice President Joe Biden’s tiebreaking vote narrowly keeping Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV) as majority leader.

2016 Presidential Update: For Republicans, a Vacancy at the Top By Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley

It’s lonely at the top of the Republican field — like, “top of Mt. Everest” lonely.

In our latest shuffle of the 2016 Crystal Ball presidential outlook, we’ve decided that the Republican first tier is…empty. Our Republican friends might object, but deep down, we think they would be hard-pressed to argue for any single name to head this long list: There’s simply no one in the field who is clearly more likely to get the nomination than a half-dozen or more others.

Off to the Races By Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley

The overall picture is this: A Republican Senate gain of four-to-eight seats, with a GOP Senate pickup of six-to-seven seats the likeliest outcome; a GOP gain of somewhere around a half-dozen seats in the House; and little net party change in the gubernatorial lineup even as a few incumbents lose. So what could shift these projections in a significant way, beyond candidate implosions that move individual races on and off the board?

What’s the Matter With Kansas — And Hawaii? By Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley

Royal Blue Hawaii and Ruby Red Kansas are two of the most predictable states in presidential and Senate elections. Yet both states have incumbent governors from the dominant parties who are fighting for their political lives. What gives?

Senate: 2014 a Year All Its Own by Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley

Analysts always strain to generalize about elections. We want to “model” them, find the common elements, and project them as early as possible based on the commonalities. That’s a legitimate approach, but we need always remember that every election is different. Every single one.

The Hidden Barrier to A Republican Senate Majority by Kyle Klondik

If Republicans are to win the Senate, they probably are going to have to do something they haven’t done since 1980: beat more than two Democratic Senate incumbents in November.

Republicans: “Thank God for Mississippi!” By Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley

Establishment Republicans across the country are saying “Thank God for Mississippi,” but not in the derisive way that political scientist V.O. Key describes it above. The state’s Republican voters, and probably quite a few Democrats, allowed the GOP establishment to fend off a Tea Party challenge to a sitting senator. In the process, they kept Democrats from potentially expanding the Senate’s general election playing field in November and from giving anti-establishment forces in the Republican Senate caucus another ally.

Mississippi, a state often ignored by the national political world, managed to do something rarely seen in politics: Produce two upsets in the same race in a three-week span. And it bucked a trend of generally pathetic turnout in primaries nationwide to produce the second and then first-largest primary turnouts in the history of Mississippi Republican politics.

Mississippi, a trailblazing leader in voter participation? It has been a very odd primary season indeed.

Midterm 2014: Where Things Stand Now By Larry J. Sabato and Kyle Kondik

Election Day 2014 is now almost exactly seven months away, which is both near and far.

On the one hand, more than half of the states –29 of 50 — have passed their filing deadlines for major party candidates (the deadline in a 30th, Tennessee, is today). The late entries of Rep. Cory Gardner (R, CO-4) and ex-Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) into, respectively, the Colorado and New Hampshire Senate races are probably the last major candidate announcements we’re going to see this cycle, barring a late retirement or other big surprise. So the playing field is basically set.

2016 Republican Presidential Update: A New, Familiar Name at the Top By Larry J. Sabato and Kyle Kondik

In our first ranking of the very large and very unsettled 2016 Republican presidential field back in April of last year, we decided to not even include the name of one of the brightest stars in the GOP universe: Jeb Bush. We just didn’t think, at the time, that the former Florida governor and brother and son of presidents was all that interested in running.

But during 2013 and into this new year, we’ve gotten the sense, like many others, that things might be changing. So much so that we now consider Bush the leader of the field if he decides to run.

Why?

The Limited Meaning of Florida’s Special House Election By Larry J. Sabato and Kyle Kondik

Rep.-elect David Jolly (R, FL-13) overcame money, some internal division among Republicans, and a name recognition and prestige deficit to defeat Alex Sink (D) in a much-watched special election in Florida’s Tampa-area 13th Congressional District Tuesday night.

House Update: Tiny Movement Toward Republicans By Larry J. Sabato and Kyle Kondik

At this very early point in the 2014 race for the U.S. House, small Republican gains -- as in, less than five seats -- look likelier than a similarly small gain for Democrats. That’s because the Republican targets just look a little better than the Democratic ones.

16 For 16, Part 2: An Elephant Rises From The Heartland? By Larry J. Sabato, Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley

As we discussed last week, the Democratic Party’s presidential field in 2016 hinges greatly on the decision of one person: Hillary Clinton. The Republican Party’s early primary picture is much more complicated, and the top-tier contenders are grouped much closer together at the starting gate.

2014 Senate Preview: Can Republicans Finally Turn Potential Into Reality? By Kyle Kondik and Larry J. Sabato

As the 2012 election fades into the history books, we begin our first look at the 2014 contests for Senate, House and Governor. Let’s start with the Senate, which will be the site of an intense battle for control once again. Before looking ahead at the Republicans’ prospects to gain the six seats they need to win control of the Senate, it is first important -- though for Republicans, painful -- to look back at the past two Senate cycles.

Romney Wins Debate, But How Much Does It Matter By Geoffrey Skelley, Kyle Kondik and Larry J. Sabato

It’s pretty obvious who turned in a stronger performance in the first presidential debate last night. And it certainly wasn’t the incumbent. This may have been Mitt Romney’s best debate ever, and it almost certainly was Barack Obama’s worst. The question is, will it matter and, if so, how much will it matter?

Goodbye Charlotte and 60 Days To Go By Kyle Kondik, Larry J. Sabato and Geoffrey Skelley

Whenever the Library of America -- the publisher that releases those elegant volumes with white, cursive writing on black covers -- comes up with its next book of classic political oratory, we’ve got a pretty good idea of two speeches that won’t be included.

Tight National Race Freezes Electoral College Map By Kyle Kondik and Larry J. Sabato

While no one enjoys dissecting the presidential swing states more than we do, we also recognize that swings in the states are oftentimes uniform -- as in, changes in the national polls will trickle down to the states.

Final Veepstakes Ratings: Pawlenty, Portman Continue To Top List By Kyle Kondik and Larry J. Sabato

And then there were five.

After starting out with more than 20 names a few months ago, we can now count our list of Mitt Romney's vice-presidential possibilities on one hand.

Sound and Fury: Feeding Frenzies In The Presidential Silly Season By Larry J. Sabato and Kyle Kondik

In the beginning, there was the Etch A Sketch.

A Senate That’s Fit to Be Tied? Updating the Battle for Congress By Larry J. Sabato and Kyle Kondik

Some analysts have been making the case that 2012 is going to turn decisively one way or the other — perhaps evolving into a 2008-style margin for Democrats or Republicans.