Commentary By J. Miles Coleman

States of Play: Georgia By J. Miles Coleman and Niles Francis

Once-dominant Democrats need formerly Republican suburbs to come through for them in 2020.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Over the last few decades, Georgia has gone from a swing state to reliably GOP. But it’s now looking like a genuinely competitive state again.

— Democrats have made major inroads in both urban Atlanta and its suburbs, but their gains have been somewhat blunted by the sharp Republican trend in other parts of the state.

— In the state’s regular Senate election this year, we’re downgrading Sen. David Perdue’s chances. We now have both Georgia’s seats rated as Leans Republican.

Republican Presidential Primary Turnout: Trump vs Bush By J. Miles Coleman

Early in the primary season, Republican pollster John Couvillon noted that President Trump’s "unshakable" rapport with the Republican Party’s base may be leading GOP partisans to do something unusual historically: turn out in uncontested primaries.

Turnout in the 2020 Democratic Primary: Some Clues for the Fall By J. Miles Coleman

In the primary, blue-trending areas see higher turnout, power Joe Biden's strength; erosion for Democrats continues in some rural areas in the South.

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— With very few exceptions, statewide turnout in the 2020 Democratic primary has been higher than 2016.

— Suburban areas have seen some of the sharpest turnout increases — though these areas tend to have higher population growth, they’ve also trended blue in general elections, perhaps a positive indicator for Democrats looking to the fall.

— Meanwhile, some rural areas that have been trending away from Democrats in places like North Carolina and Oklahoma saw turnout lag behind 2016.

— While Bernie Sanders seems to have a stronger opponent in Joe Biden than he did with Hillary Clinton, Sanders’ prospects may have been hurt by partisan realignment since 2016.

The Electoral College: Maine and Nebraska’s Crucial Battleground Votes By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Nationalization has pushed urban and rural areas apart; Maine and Nebraska are no exceptions to this trend, and their unique electoral vote allocation systems are highlighting that division.

— The Omaha-based NE-2 supported Republicans in the past two presidential elections, but by decreasing margins, and could feasibly vote blue in 2020.

— Maine’s two districts, once political mirror images of each other, have drifted steadily apart. The Crystal Ball sees Donald Trump as a favorite to carry ME-2 again, though Democrats should retain the state’s other three electoral votes.

— In a close national election, Maine and Nebraska’s respective second districts could provide potentially decisive electoral votes.

Louisiana 2019: Welcome to the Jungle (Primary) By J. Miles Coleman

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Gov. John Bel Edwards (D-LA) defied the partisan lean of his state in 2015, but he will have to navigate an increasingly partisan electorate to win again. He’ll need Republican support, but he also must energize black voters.

— Louisiana’s unique jungle primary has shaped the contours of state elections for nearly 50 years and will be a key feature of the 2019 election.

— Regionalism has always been salient in Louisiana politics, and it should be a decisive factor in which Republican candidate makes a potential runoff with Edwards: Rep. Ralph Abraham (R, LA-5) or businessman Eddie Rispone (R).

2018 Senate: How the “Trump Ten” Races Compared to 2016 By J. Miles Coleman

Heading into the 2018 cycle, Democrats seemed to have many advantages, as the out-party typically does in midterm years. However, one factor that was decidedly slanted against them was the Senate map. A majority of the Democratic caucus — 26 of 49 members — faced the electorate. Further, 10 Democratic incumbents on the ballot represented states that President Trump carried in 2016. In many cases, to win reelection, these senators had to perform significantly better than Hillary Clinton did two years ago.